Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Spread: LAC -11.0
Total: 227.5
Injuries:
Houston
Kevin Porter DOUBT
Eric Gordon OUT
John Wall OUT
Los Angeles
Paul George OUT
Kawhi Leonard OUT
Norman Powell OUT
Jason Preston OUT
MVP/Captain
Christian Wood, C – Wood is back off the injury report after missing last night’s game with an illness. Assuming minutes aren’t an issue in this last game before the break, this is a potential smash spot for Wood. The only team worse against centers in the last 30 games is, well, the Rockets. Ivica Zubac has been unable to stop anyone in the paint (they’ve allowed the fifth-most points in the paint this year) and the Clippers rank 28th in rebound rate this year. Even at $16,500, this feels like a very safe play tonight.
Reggie Jackson, PG – Jackson continues to get the job done no matter who he is facing these days. Even against Phoenix – maybe the toughest matchup for a point guard – Jackson gave us 31 DK points last game even though he shot 26.9% from the field. The Rockets are decidedly not the Suns on defense. They allow 1.5 more fantasy points per game to the point guard position than any other team this year. I’m giving serious thought to locking in Jackson in the MVP spot.
Marcus Morris, SF/PF – I bet you’ll never believe that the Rockets are also horrible against power forwards. They allow the most points to that position as well so all we need is heavy minutes for Morris and he will have no problem reaching value in this one. The minutes have mostly been stable, but every once in a while we will get a 22-25 minute game and 15 fantasy points. I don’t see that happening tonight, and Morris represents a nice discount from both Wood and Jackson.
Utility
Alperen Sengun, PF/C – An absolutely dominant game last night starting for Wood leads to a tough decision on this Showdown slate. On DK, Sengun’s salary went up by $400 after scoring 49.5 DK points. But do we think Sengun will get 28 minutes again with Wood back in the lineup? My guess is no, based on the Rockets’ rotations this year. So while we may not get a 50-burger, Sengun still is capable of dropping 25-30 in just 20 minutes off the bench. At just $5,800 it is well worth the risk for the upside.
Dennis Schroder, PG/SG – Talk about a stellar debut for your new team. Schroder, who can’t be thrilled to go from a contending team to Houston’s basement, dropped 46 DK points last night, playing in place of Kevin Porter. Porter is doubtful again tonight due to illness, so this could be another ceiling game for Schroder, especially if he gets 35+ minutes again. There are very few playmakers and shot-takers on the Rockets right now (Eric Gordon is not playing) so Schroder should have a free path to fantasy goodness.
Ivica Zubac, C – As mentioned above, any time you have a center against the Rockets, you play him. It’s the old flow chart theory: are the Rockets playing? Yes. Are they facing a team with a center? Yes. Then you play that center. Over the last 30 games, the Rockets allowed more than three fantasy points per game to centers than any other squad. Zubac got 31 minutes in his last game, and if we can get that tonight, this could be a 45-point performance.
Value Tier
Isaiah Hartenstein, C – Once again, the flow chart. Hartenstein is one of the more efficient players in the NBA, and he averages 1.22 fantasy points per minute. That’s the same as guys you may have heard of like Jayson Tatum and DeMar DeRozan. Hartenstein is going to play 15-20 minutes tonight and has the revenge narrative working in his favor as well. If the game script goes to plan (LAC -11.0), Hartenstein could be in line for plenty of blowout minutes.
KJ Martin, PF/C – Not many Rockets who play actually fit the under-$5,000 threshold for value plays, but Martin certainly fits the criteria. He doesn’t typically start but comes in for 22-26 minutes per night and quietly puts up almost 20 DK points per game. The same thing applies for Martin as did for Hartenstein. If this becomes a blowout, Martin could tick up to 28 minutes. Regardless, he hasn’t scored less than 14 DK points in over a month so the floor is safe to go with the upside.