Los Angeles Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

  • O/U: 220.5
  • Spread: MIN -1.0

 

Injuries

Los Angeles:

  • Anthony Davis PROB
  • LeBron James PROB
  • Trevor Ariza OUT
  • Avery Bradley OUT
  • Talen Horton-Tucker OUT
  • Dwight Howard OUT
  • Kendrick Nunn OUT
  • Russell Westbrook OUT

Minnesota:

  • Anthony Edwards OUT
  • Taurean Prince OUT

 

MVP/CPT

Lebron James, PF – The Lakers have a legit 2017 playoff contending team absent from their squad on Friday night, including point guard Russell Westbrook. By now, we all know what that means for the rest of the Lakers, and especially LeBron. James gets a usage rate of 32.5% and four additional DK points per game in that scenario. The Timberwolves already allow the seventh-most fantasy points per position to opposing teams anyway and now we get hero LeBron in a game where the Lakers are slight underdogs. Sign me up. 

Anthony Davis, PF/C – Davis isn’t as impacted by the Westbrook news, but the Lakers are still without Dwight Howard and Talen Horton-Tucker, two big men who gobble up rebounds. With all three of those players off the floor, Davis’ usage rate is 29.4% and he pushes up against 50 fantasy points per game. Davis will play a lot of center tonight against Towns and Minnesota is the sixth-worst team in the league against the position; third-worst in their last seven games. 

Karl-Anthony Towns, C – Towns is an absolute beast over the last three weeks, with a floor of 39 DK points in his last nine games and a ceiling of 65. In that span, he has reached 30%+ usage five times and even got up to 40% usage twice. With Anthony Edwards out tonight, there are plenty of shots to go around and the Wolves will desperately need Towns’ offense and defense to keep pace. His usage goes up 8.1% when Edwards is not on the floor. 

 

UTIL

D’Angelo Russell, PG/SG – Another player who should benefit greatly from no Edwards  is Russell, who has a 29% usage rate sans Edwards this season. In those situations, Russell is now above 40 DK points per game and he should handle 35+ minutes with ease tonight. The Lakers may play big men tough, but they allow the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards. At $2,000-$3,000 under the big three in salary, Russell has the upside of those players with a salary that’s easier to stomach.

Jarred Vanderbilt, PF/C – Vanderbilt checks a number of boxes tonight in a Showdown Slate where we want to pay up for as many guys as possible. Minutes? Check – they are up each of the last four games, including 33 on Wednesday. Salary? Check - $6,400 is well below the elite players and gives us $8,700 at each of the other positions when we plug him in. Matchup? Check – the Lakers allow the fourth-most fantasy points to power forwards in their last 15 games. 

Malik Monk, PG/SG – Monk cleared the COVID protocols on Thursday and will be active for this game, which is huge for the Lakers and very relevant for DFS players. With the Lakers missing four guards and likely rolling out Austin Reaves at shooting guard Friday, Monk could be in line for big minutes. When a similar situation presented itself a few weeks ago, Monk played between 23-33 minutes every night and was a consistent 30 DK point player. At just $5,200, this is an easy opportunity to roster a player who can 5x his salary. 

 

Value Tier

Rajon Rondo, PG – With no Westbrook, Nunn or Bradley, the Lakers will turn to Rondo tonight to play at least a significant chunk of point guard minutes. We can hope and pray that he plays at least half the game. The last time he saw 24 minutes, Rondo gave us 32 DK points against these same Timberwolves. At just the minimum $1,000 salary tonight, we really don’t need much production, but a 20x night is in play. I’m not saying I recommend this, but Rondo in the MVP spot allow you to get James, Davis, Towns, and Russell with $5,500 still left for your last spot. 

Jaden McDaniels, SF/PF – I love the consistency in the minutes tonight for McDaniels. He has played between 22-32 minutes in nine straight games and has shown a ceiling of upper-20’s in DK points in that span. Without Edwards tonight, we may see Josh Okogie start, but he is a zero for fantasy which could lead to a few extra minutes for McDaniels. At just $3,200, there is plenty of room to hit value.