Los Angeles Clippers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
O/U: 215.5
Spread: LAC -3.0
Injuries:
Los Angeles
Nicolas Batum QUEST
Kawhi Leonard OUT
Portland
CJ McCollum PROB
Nassir Little QUEST
Damian Lillard OUT
Anfernee Simons OUT
MVP/CPT
Paul George, SF/PF – In the early part of the season, we were routinely getting 50-60 fantasy point games from George as he adjusted to his new role as the clear alpha without Kawhi Leonard. As teams have begun to adjust defensively and as George logs big minutes every night, he has settled in around 35-45 fantasy points per night over his last seven games. That’s still great, but we have to ask if it’s worth $18,900 in our MVP spot tonight. The Trail Blazers are incredibly generous to small forwards, allowing the second fantasy points per game to the position (46.04), so while it’s not a lock that George is your MVP in every lineup in a multi-entry tournament, he should certainly find his way in there a healthy amount.
CJ McCollum, PG/SG – McCollum’s usage rate without Lillard on the floor the last three games has been absolutely elite. He hasn’t dropped below 31% and he averages 39.25 fantasy points in those three games. McCollum’s three games against the Clippers this year have been nothing to write home about (28 fantasy points per game), but this is a new situation where McColllum should be on the floor for about 40 minutes and take at least 15 field goal attempts. In a game with a tight spread and both teams in the top half of the league in pace, this should be an easy spot for McCollum to put up 40 fantasy points.
Dennis Smith, PG - Dennis Smith at a $10,500 MVP salary?! DraftKings reacted quickly to the revelation that Smith is going to get huge minutes with Lillard and Simons unable to play. We saw the result last game when Smith logged an incredible 37 minutes (in a blowout, no less) and scored 41.5 DK points. If he continues to project that type of ceiling while he has the point guard role all to himself, he might be the best actual value on the board, especially considering the salaries for George and McCollum that are $6,000-$8,500 higher.
UTIL
Jusuf Nurkic, C – Nurkic is proving to be too inconsistent to rely on in the MVP spot the last couple weeks. Since he scored 59 DK points on November 24, he has only topped 33 points one time and has been below 30 three times. Even his three games against the Clippers so far this season don’t provide much help. Nurkic has scored more than 40 DK points twice and 10 points the other game. But the 40-points is certainly within his range of outcomes so make sure he is a part of your plans tonight.
Reggie Jackson, PG – Speaking of inconsistency, Jackson is the embodiment of it over the last seven games, scoring between 4.75 and 53.5 DK points. But typically you are going to find Jackson in the 25-35 DK point range with minutes steady between 30-32. Portland is bottom-12 against opposing point guards for fantasy this year, and Jackson already has two games under his belt with at least 30 fantasy points against them this year.
Ivica Zubac, C - Zubac vs. Nurkic is always a fun battle filled with post-ups and uncommon consonants, and tonight should be no different. More minutes are slowly beginning to come his way as he is above 25 minutes in six of his last 11 games. Plus, Zubac has been above a 14% usage rate in seven of his last eight games. The Blazers give up the fifth-most points to the center position, so if ever there was a night for Zubac to be aggressive around the basket, this is it.
Value Tier
Isaiah Hartenstein, C – Just about a month ago you could have rostered I-Hart at a third of his current $3,400 salary. But even though the minutes remain between 14-18 every night, the production keeps coming so the salary is rising. Despite never playing more than 19 minutes in his last six games, he averages 19.4 DK points and should see a healthy amount of minutes against the Portland big men.
Ben McLemore, SG – With both Lillard and Simons hurt, McLemore is taking on a much bigger role in the backcourt in the past few games. After playing a total of eight minutes in the two games prior, McLemore averages 22.7 minutes and 18.3 fantasy points in his past three games. At just a shocking $1,000 on this slate ($1,200 less than Saturday), McLemore might be the best bet for someone who could 20x their salary and he would also get more minutes if this should turn into a blowout.