Phoenix Suns @ Boston Celtics

Total: 214.5

Spread: PHX -3.5

Suns

Deandre Ayton - OUT

JaVale McGee - OUT

Frank Kaminsky - OUT

Jae Crowder - OUT

Abdel Nader - OUT

Dario Saric - OUT

The Suns travel to Boston for an afternoon showdown as they look to take sole possession of the league’s best record. The Suns are one of many teams impacted by COVID-19 as they’re down their top two centers as well as starting power-forward, Jae Crowder.

There isn’t a huge sample with all of these guys off the floor, but enough to get an idea on how things are going to go for Phoenix here. Chris Paul has been very inconsistent lately and at this price, there are other priorities for me on this slate. Just look over at the other guard spot in Devin Booker. Booker is coming off a monster outing and has averaged 1.6 FP/min without Ayton, McGee and Crowder this year. He also dropped 71 on the Celtics in Boston just a couple years ago. The sneaky guard play on this Suns team is Cameron Payne, who played 30 minutes and put up 31.5 DKP last time out. Since Ayton has gone down, he’s played 24 and 30 minutes the last two games.

I don’t have interest in the low floor that is Mikal Bridges, but Cameron Johnson and Jalen Smith are two likely popular sought after plays on this mini two game slate. Johnson’s been a model of consistency this year and with Crowder and Ayton off the floor, he’s averaged .93 FP/min. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble, he should play 30 minutes here. Smith, last year's lottery pick, hasn’t gotten it going through one-plus years in the league, but has taken on a bigger role the last two games he’s played 25+ minutes and put up 28+ DKP.

Celtics

Jayson Tatum - OUT

Dennis Schroder - OUT

Enes Kanter Freedom - OUT

Aaron Nesmith - OUT

Bruno Fernando - OUT

The Celtics are coming off a historically bad shooting night, going 4-for-42 from three point range. They’ve lost three in a row, they’re 3-7 over the last 10 games and are close to falling out of the playoff picture as they sit in 10th in the standings coming into this game.

With the Celtics getting Marcus Smart back, Payton Pritchard likely goes back to the bench here. Smart should have a sizable role here and without Tatum and Schroder in the lineup, Smart has a very solid 22.4% USG rate. I actually have more interest in Josh Richardson than I do Pritchard on this slate. He has a very low ceiling at 5.2K, Pritchard does, especially if he’s moved back to the bench. Richardson has been firmly entrenched in the rotation all year, too, and Pritchard has not been.

Jaylen Brown HAS to have a better game than he had the other day, right? 30 points on 36 shots? You don’t see that often. It’s not the easiest match-up considering he’s going to get a heavy dose of Mikal Bridges here. I prefer other stars on this slate, but if you want to be contrarian, here’s the way to do so.

I think the way to get exposure to the Celtics is through the front court options in Al Horford and Robert Williams. Horford has been brilliant lately and although Smart being back takes away a little of the allure, where he may lose some stats in the assist category he’ll get back in the offensive bracket because he’s not going to shoot 3-of-14 again. Williams has an extremely enticing match-up against a Suns front court that’s ravaged by COVID-19. No Ayton, no McGee. Without Tatum, Schroder and Freedom this year, he’s averaging 1.29 FP/min.
 

Chicago Bulls @ Indiana Pacers

Total: 221

Spread: CHI -4

Bulls

Lonzo Ball - OUT

Alex Caruso - OUT

Marko Simonovic - OUT

Alfonzo McKinnie - OUT

Tony Bradley - OUT

Ersan Ilyasova - OUT

Patrick Williams - OUT

There is a lot to like about the Bulls on this slate and jamming a lot of them in could end up being a fruitful approach. It is interesting to note the Bulls are only four point favorites against a team without Malcolm Brodgon and have the third worst record in the Eastern Conference.

There have been few teams worse on the defensive end than Indiana over the past two weeks. They rank 26th in DRtg over that span. Insert Coby White and Zach LaVine. White is coming off his best game of the year by a MILE and got a price reduction, so he’ll be extremely popular. LaVine also saw his price drop and he too should be quite popular considering there’s no Lonzo Ball or Alex Caruso. I’ll throw out an honorable mention to Ayo Dosunmu who has played 20+ minutes in three straight games, but what is the upside at his price? 6-7x? 

A lot of the draft percentage is going to roll in on the front court guys. DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic are obvious plays. Two of the best we have on the slate, but how about Javonte Green? Green’s only 3.8K and should approach and possibly surpass 30 minutes in a competitive game, which Vegas has projected it to be. Troy Brown is risky because we’re unsure when the Bulls will take the minutes cap off of Derrick Jones and that could directly impact Brown’s minutes.

Pacers

Malcolm Brogdon - OUT

Chris Duarte - OUT

T.J. Warren - OUT

Jeremy Lamb - OUT

T.J. McConnell - OUT

Isaiah Jackson - OUT

The Pacers are reeling and things haven’t been getting any better lately. Maybe there’s some light at the end of the tunnel, however, considering they’re actually 11-8 at home, so maybe this game IS going to stay close and they possibly can sneak it out.

Indiana is where we’re going to take our shots today. They’re missing a lot of guys that normally have a big spot in the rotation and based on their last game, they really shortened up their rotation. We’re starting our interest at the guard spot with Caris LeVert who has been dynamite the last three games putting up 49+ DKP in all three contests. He’s scored 24+ actual in four of five games as well.

After LeVert, I’m willing to take dart throws at guys. Torrey Craig tops the list as we’ve seen wildly high upside from him in the past and last game, he was one of the members of that shortened Pacers rotation. Not only that, now Chris Duarte is in the health & safety protocols, so somebody will absorb even more run and I expect Craig to be that guy. Justin Holiday will see upwards of 35 minutes here considering who’s out. He’s not anyone we’re rushing to get into our lines, but when his three ball is falling, he does have a nice floor and some upside.

Two more dart throws I’d be willing to take a shot on are Oshae Brissett and Kelan Martin. Both are in the rotation already and they’re hurting for guys to step up. Brissett has a bit more upside averaging .84 FP/min with all of the Pacers’ guys out, while Martin’s at .72.

I like that we’re getting Domantas Sabonis’ price below 10K. I hate paying north of 10K for a guy that very seldom gives us UPSIDE at that price. There’s upside here as he averages 1.38 FP/min without Brogdon, Duarte, Lamb and McConnell. Myles Turner is always in play for GPPs. He’s been good against the Bulls this year, too, averaging 35 DKP/game in two meetings.

 

CORE PLAYS

Coby White - Devin Booker - Domantas Sabonis - Jalen Smith