NBA DFS Position Coach: November 1, 2016

You know it is a rough slate when you wish J.R. Smith was available. Cleveland’s game against the Rockets was moved up an hour so as not to interfere too much with the World Series, and that game is not available on DraftKings or FantasyAces. I don’t love J.R. Smith, but I would have loved to take a shot on his upside against the Rockets, given the lack of solid shooting guard options. The only good news is the shooting guards are all pretty cheap, so you can just plug one in first and then move on to more bountiful positions. I would have loved to have been able to play LeBron James as well. I could make an argument for any of the top small forwards, but none of them is as safe as LeBron, and that would have been a nice tie-breaker.

Point Guard

Kris Dunn will start Tuesday with Ricky Rubio out. Dunn was one of the most highly regarded prospects in the draft and he has been okay in his first two NBA games, averaging 6.0 points, 2.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists in 17.5 minutes per game. If Dunn plays 30 minutes he could easily get you double-digit points and a handful of rebounds and assists, but he is far from a sure thing.

Damian Lillard averaged 36.5 points, 6.5 assists and 2.3 steals against the Warriors last season, compared to his season averages of 25.1, 6.8 and 0.9. Lillard might come back down to earth at some point, but I doubt it happens tonight. I especially love Lillard on FantasyAces, where he still costs less than Stephen Curry.

So far this season Sergio Rodriguez has outscored, among others: Derrick Rose, Ty Lawson, Ish Smith, Jeff Teague and Elfrid Payton. He is cheaper than all of those guys, and while I don’t love the matchup, he seems safe for double-digit points and solid assist totals.

Ish Smith probably isn’t as safe as Sergio Rodriguez, and he costs more, but I really like his upside against the lowly Knicks. The Knicks are sixth in opponents’ points and fifth in opponents’ assists so far this season.

I suspect it is only a matter of time before Goran Dragic had double-digit assists, and Tuesday could very easily be that day. At the very least Dragic should be a safe cash game play, but he has nice upside as Ty Lawson isn’t exactly known for his defense.

Shooting Guard

Among the shooting guards playing Tuesday, only C.J. McCollum is averaging more fantasy points than Zach LaVine. LaVine was already playing 35 minutes and taking 14 shots per game, so Ricky Rubio’s absence is unlikely to help too much, but it could mean LaVine will have the ball in his hands even more than before. LaVine seems extremely safe despite what could be a tough matchup, and we all know he is capable of scoring 30+ on any given night.

I don’t know that Klay Thompson will ever be a cash game play while Steph Curry and Kevin Durant are both active, but he has already gone off once this season, against the Pelicans, and he is capable of doing so again Tuesday. Klay Thompson averaged 29.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists against the Trail Blazers last season, mostly because C.J. McCollum is a horrible matchup for Klay. This is probably the pick that is most likely to blow up in my face, but I really like Klay Thompson’s chances at a big game.

Monta Ellis is basically a poor man's Klay Thompson. No one in the Lakers’ backcourt plays even average defense, and Ellis should be able to bounce back in a big way after the Bulls completely shut him down Saturday. Ellis doesn’t have Klay’s ceiling, but he probably does have the better matchup.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to record a triple-double sooner or later, and when he does, you will wish he was in your DFS lineup. No team has allowed more opponents’ rebounds than the Pelicans, and they are ninth in opponents’ points and assists. Now I just wish he was eligible at the same position on any two sites. I don’t even care which position.

Small Forward

James Ennis is no longer the bargain he was when he began the season, but he is still the cheapest small forward you can feel confident starting. Ennis has at least 23 fantasy points on DraftKings in each of his three games, and it was encouraging to see him play 34 minutes and snag 12 rebounds Sunday.

On the one hand, the smart thing would probably be to completely ignore the 76ers—outside of Sergio Rodriguez—for the foreseeable future. On the other hand, Jerami Grant played well at times when Philadelphia’s bigs were out, and he is worth a shot Tuesday, especially in a GPP. With Jahlil Okafor scheduled to sit, Grant could see more minutes and rebounds, though he is nowhere close to a safe play.

The most difficult decision of the night for me is which stud small forward to play. I would tell you to avoid them altogether, but the cheap small forwards aren’t much more attractive. Carmelo Anthony should be pretty safe, and while he probably isn’t going to get you a double-double, he is likely to knock down a few threes sooner or later. If this is the night Carmelo finally scores 30, he will be a very nice value.

If you can afford to pay a bit more and you want to shoot for higher upside, I don’t know how to fade Paul George. I am a bit worried Luol Deng will guard George and lead to his second poor game in a row, but considering he is the Lakers’ only decent perimeter defender, I think it is more likely George will score 20+ points while stuffing the stat sheet.

Power Forward

It is easy to give Anthony Davis a pass for a down performance against the Spurs, and he was superhuman in the two games before that. Davis is a very strong GPP play, but he should be pretty safe for cash games as well.

Thaddeus Young has at least 10 points, five rebounds, three assists and one steal in every game this season. Those numbers aren’t spectacular, but I will gladly take that floor in what is a fairly ugly night for power forwards.

I don’t trust Al-Farouq Aminu, but he has an excellent chance at his second straight double-digit rebounding game. Aminu has struggled with his shot to this point, but he keeps getting open looks, and they will fall down sooner or later. Aminu has a chance to produce like Thaddeus Young at a discount price.

I really want to trust Julius Randle, but I fear I am being unduly influenced by all the reports about how he finally trusts his leg after he broke it two years ago. Randle is a candidate for his first double-double of the season, which would be really nice considering he is also averaging 3.3 assists per game, but he struggled against the Jazz, and he is far from a sure thing.

Center

If Mason Plumlee does not have double-digit rebounds Tuesday he is dead to me. Plumlee has a whopping 11 rebounds through three games, but that has to change against a Warriors team that has allowed 51.3 rebounds per game to opponents this season. Plumlee has contributed in other areas, with at least 13 points and four assists in each of his last two games, and if he can do that along with some more rebounds, he could be a very nice DFS play.

On the exact opposite end of the spectrum, you have Hassan Whiteside. Whiteside has at least 18 points, 14 rebounds and two blocks in every game this season, and it is doubtful the Kings can slow him down. Whiteside is as safe as it gets at what has been a pretty volatile position so far this season.

Myles Turner probably needs to cost more. His floor, at least three games into the season, is 31.2 fantasy points on FanDuel, and he has shown his ceiling is much higher than that. Turner had just four rebounds against the Bulls, which gives me pause, but I love his 20-and-10 potential and he should have a much better matchup than similarly priced players like Marc Gasol and Rudy Gobert.