UPDATES ARE IN RED

For the second weekend in a row, we’re talking about right turns on the track and not just left-handers. However, unlike last week, this track hasn’t been one that’s been raced by the Cup series before as they go racing at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course. It’s a 14-turn layout that’s just a shade under 2.5 miles per lap. It’s also incredibly flat and has zero elevation change to it at all. Driving this one is all about the braking zones and hitting each corner to set up the momentum of a lap and run up to the two main straightaways on the track.

If you look at some of the data below in the charts, we’ll see that building lineups for the road courses this year has mainly been about position differential and a bit about laps led. If you want more strategy and breakdown, reading the Track Breakdown and listening to the Podcast will help with that.

Average Points By Starting Spot

These charts show the average points by starting spot over the road races this year regardless of the drivers starting in those starting spots. They are meant to show strategy for building lineups and not be hard and fast rules that those specific spots will produce like that again.

Playbook

Chase Elliott ($11,000 DK / $14,000 FD P3)

He’s Chase Elliott and this is a road course. Enough said.

Kyle Larson ($10,800 DK / $13,500 FD P4)

Larson and Elliott have finished 1-2 at three road races this year with Larson besting Elliott twice, at Sonoma and Watkins. Larson looked fast again at practice and at this point that shouldn’t be surprising as he routinely put up good times with Chip Ganassi but now has the equipment to last the whole race.

Martin Truex Jr ($10,400 DK / $13,000 FD P6)

In the last three road races this year, Truex has finished P3 twice and P9 the other time. Truex has long been considered the second-best road racer on the Cup circuit and he’s been living up to that recently and that’s before he led practice with the quickest single lap on Saturday. He’s always a threat to win at these places and if he’s on the pole, he could also lead the most laps. 

Kyle Busch ($10,200 DK / $12,500 FD P21)

Busch has been on a roll in this package in the second-half of the season and the last three races specifically in which he’s finished P5, P3, and P4 respectively. Those finishes came when he started P5, P40, and P20 respectively showing that he can move up into the top-five regardless of where he starts. That could come in handy this week, not to mention that he really likes to win the inaugural races like this to add to his multiple Brickyard 400 wins.

Denny Hamlin ($10,000 DK / $12,000 FD P14)

Hamlin is the only driver in the field this week to have five top-15 finishes at road courses this year and three of those are top-five. His average finish in that span is 7.0 and over the last 10 such races, he’s posted six top-fives and a 7.9 average finish. He did go in the grass at one point at practice on Saturday but that didn’t matter much as he did have the fastest time for most of the session. Update: He only missed a shot at the top-12 qualifying spots by .04 seconds and so the 11-car should be a factor for another top-five today.

Joey Logano ($9,600 DK / $10,000 FD P7)

Logano is one of the five drivers with three or more top-fives in the road races this year and his average finish of 9.2 is third-best in the field as well. We know by now that his top-10s have come in this 750-horsepower package and with this race having that package, there’s a good bet he can nab another top-10.

Christopher Bell ($9,200 DK / $11,500 FD P17)

Bell is in the midst of a stretch of four straight top-10 finishes which is the longest such stretch of his brief Cup career to this point. He did win at the Daytona Road Course earlier this year as well and is renowned for his road racing abilities. If he qualifies near the front of the pack we might see him get a bit overlooked.

ADDED
Kurt Busch ($9,000 DK / $8,200 FD P20)

Busch has been very good at road races this year, well aside from the slide-out at COTA in the rain, and the starting spot is perfect for him to hit value. He's starting 20th in the grid but has an average finish of 10.8 in the last five road races while moving up an average of nearly eight spots a race to get those finishes. Squarely in the mid-tier on both sites, he will be a popular play but a very solid option to build around for both formats.

AJ Allmendinger ($8,800 DK / $10,500 FD P8)

The Dinger is back in the Cup series this weekend because it’s a road course and he’s the ultimate road race ringer. He’s racing in the Xfinity race on Saturday and will have had a chance to practice in both the Xfinity and Cup cars giving him as much time as anyone this weekend. In the three prior Cup races this year, he’s finished in the top-10 twice and then had a part break at Road America. He’ll be popular for all formats on Sunday.

Alex Bowman ($8,400 DK / $9,200 FD P24)

Bowman started off well this year with right turns and three straight top-10 finishes including moving up from P36 to P10 at the DRC in February. However, since then he’s started P10 in the last two races and finished P22 and P20 respectively. He’s more suited for a GPP build given his recent track record of going backward in three straight races but if he finishes in the top-six he’ll be an interesting play.

ADDED
Brad Keselowski ($8,200 DK / $8,000 FD P31)

Keselowski had a terrible qualifying effort and will start outside the top-30 and giving him a ton of PD upside, if he can simply keep the car on the track and avoid the mechanical issues he had last weekend at Watkins Glen. Now with this starting spot he will be a popular play, in both formats, and he's certainly priced down from where he's been in previous weeks and even with road course being a bit hit-and-miss for him this year, he's still capable of 15-plus spots of PD.

Chase Briscoe ($7,900 DK / $8,500 FD P2)

Briscoe gets a chance to go home this weekend and race in front of his home Hoosier fans at a track he raced well at last year in the Xfinity race. Coming to the Cup series and road racing hasn’t been that big of a leap for him as he’s posted a 12.4 PD mark in the five road races this year with three top-10s and a 14.0 average finish. Briscoe looked quick in practice running inside the top-10 as well. UPDATE: Briscoe starting P2 means he has a shot for laps led early but he likely doesn't stay up in the top-five past about halfway. He's a GPP play at this point for lack of PD.

Ross Chastain ($7,700 DK / $7,500 FD P8)

Chastain might be surprising people this year in terms of what he’s done on road layouts with four top-15s in the five road races he’s run this year. That surprise is wearing off though and he won’t be sneaking up on anybody in DFS or in the race on Sunday either. He’s a quality play for Cash and GPP formats for both sites especially if he qualifies around 20th as he’ll have solid PD upside from there.

Tyler Reddick ($7,600 DK / $7,800 FD P11)

Reddick has three top-10s at road races this year and has been rolling of late as he’s holding on to the last spot in the playoffs at the moment. He’s posted 12 top-10s in his 23 races this year which is the first time since 2013 that an RCR driver has managed that many top-10s through this part in a season. His consistency has been great and the way he drives suits road layouts as well. He could still be under the radar a bit as well.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,400 DK / $7,000 FD P15)

We all know the narrative with DiBenedetto at this point and how much he wants to win and make the playoffs and fight for a ride next year. It’s time for him to put up already. He’s been fast at road courses all year and has a couple of top-15s including a top-10. He’s a GPP play in the hope that he shows up better than he has previously.

Chris Buescher ($7,100 DK / $6,000 FD P19)

Buescher ranks 13th in average finish in the five prior road races this year but is 21st in DK salary, which right off the bat gives value. He’s also ranked in the top-10 in the field in terms of value at his DFS salaries this week over the road races this year as well. Even if he’s starting in the mid-20s he’s a great play as well as if he starts in the mid-teens.

Erik Jones ($6,700 DK / $5,000 FD P28)

Jones had a terrible weekend at Watkins Glen last weekend to be sure as he had a rough Xfinity race and then never got going well in the Cup race. Let’s put that aside though and realize that he still has four top-20 finishes in the five road races this year and an average PD of 8.0 to post those top-20s. Even in the 43-car, he’s proving his skills at this discipline should be taken seriously.

Austin Dillon ($6,300 DK / $5,500 FD P23)

Dillon is fighting for a playoff spot at this point, sitting in 17th, one spot behind his teammate, and yet, he continues to show well at road courses. In the five this year, he’s managed four top-15 finishes and a 17.0 average finish. If he’s starting in the teens he’s a fine play for either format and perhaps he remains less played starting there as well.

Corey Lajoie ($5,600 DK / $3,500 FD P26)

Lajoie has finished in the top-20 twice in the last four road races and no worse than P24 (last weekend) all while moving up about four spots a race. He is very solid at road courses and showed that at practice on Saturday as well. He will likely be a popular cheap play and will only be more popular the further back he starts on Sunday as well.

Timmy Hill ($4,800 DK Only P40)

Let’s get funky here for a minute shall we and yes I’m aware this is an actual race and not an iRace. Hill ran the Daytona Road Course earlier this year and moved up 11 spots in that one. He’s been rough the rest of the time though and has only moved up more than a few spots at Talladega, which we all know isn’t a reliable result. He’s DIRT cheap and likely starting pretty far back so in MME GPPs, take a shot on Hill to get that one extra higher-priced guy in the lineup.