Just so we’re clear this is the playbook for SATURDAY’s Pocono race. Look for the SUNDAY playbook Saturday evening.

The Tricky Triangle is on tap this weekend and it’s earned its nickname quite well as it’s not only an odd shape, literally a triangle, but it’s also a track with different banking and radius on each turn that makes setup on the cars tough and vital. Each of the three corners are based on three different current and former race tracks in Indianapolis, Trenton, and Milwaukee and each have to be taken differently over the course of the race as the banking drops off across the three and the entrance and drive off are different for each as well.

For the first race, we can count a bit more on laps led as the fastest cars, at least based on the previous races, and so they should stay up front if the setup is correct. Last year in this doubleheader format, we saw the majority of the top-10 finishers be drivers that started in the top-12 spots and that lead to drivers starting near the front leading the bulk of the laps. Even though laps led will be a factor, as the Track Breakdown shows (which you should look at it) only once in the last five races here have there been more than one driver to top 50 laps led. So position differential is going to be a key thing to build around, but finding those differentiators will be key too as there is a fair amount of chalk out there based on starting spots and who’s in them.

Average Points By Starting Spot

The following charts show average fantasy points on each site based on starting spots over the last five races here regardless of the driver in those starting spots. The inverted top-20 from last year will affect some of the starting spots numbers and they are meant as a strategy device and not a hard-and-fast rule for setting lineups.


 

Playbook

Kyle Larson ($12,500 DK, $14,500 FD P1)
To take a page from Jon Impemba, our Managing Editor, as he put in the MLB playbook the other night, “See name”. That was in reference to Jacob deGrom but you can argue that Larson is on that tier for NASCAR too as he’s won three-straight points races and four-straight events including the All-Star race and then finished P2 in the three races before this run. He’s on the pole for Saturday and we’re expecting him to run up front yet again though perhaps not as dominantly as he’s done in the last few races as Pocono is still a bit worse of a track for him than the last few.

Chase Elliott ($11,00 DK, $11,000 FD P29)
Elliott had a solid top-five run last week until he didn’t. He was disqualified for a lack of lug nuts on his car at the end of the race and so he’ll start much further back than he should. There is plenty of chance of PD starting P29 but that will also make him chalky as he’s significantly cheaper than his Hendrick teammate in Larson. Three top-10s in the last five Pocono races give him an average finish of 15.6 but should be an easy threat for a top-10 again on Saturday.

Martin Truex Jr ($10,700 DK, $12,500 FD P15)
Truex isn’t necessarily the safest play in this starting spot that he’d typically be as he’s just seemingly been lost on the track for about a month. On the whole, he’s still had a good year and is still a PD play this week, just not a locked-in one even with a solid history at Pocono previously. Truex has posted four top-15s in the last five races at the Tricky Triangle but just a 71.7-percent top-15 rate. He will still be a popular play for those that don’t pay attention to recency but he’s a better fit for GPPs.

Ryan Blaney ($10,200 DK, $10,300 FD P27)
Blaney has arguably been the best Penske driver at this horsepower this year and now with major PD potential on his side, he’ll be a chalky play this week. His first Cup win came at this track as well when he was driving for the Wood Brothers while posting four top-15s in the last five races here overall. Blaney is used to moving up to achieve his average finish as well making him a great play for cash and GPP contests.

Kyle Busch ($10,000 DK, $13,000 FD P5)
It’s been an interesting season for Busch and perhaps it’s best shown by the fact that he qualified P2 for the race last week and then hated his car halfway through the event. However, in this horsepower package this year, he’s been good at moving up and posting top-fives and his lone win of the year at Kansas. He’ll be starting fifth on Saturday and has three top-fives and a top-10 in the last five races here and the third-best average driver rating at 116.1. If the 18-team sets it up right, he should be able to stay in the top-five but it’s obviously a gamble at this point based on how up and down he’s been this year.

Denny Hamlin ($9,700 DK, $13,500 FD P10)
Hamlin has the best average finish in the last five races here with a 4.0 mark and all of them being inside the top-10. He also leads the field in top-15 rate at 92.5-percent and the best average Driver Rating at 122.8. While the 11-team hasn’t been hitting at all cylinders of late, he’s still been quite good and consistent in this package. Pairing those two things together is enough to be sold on Hamlin this week but then couple that with him being the cheapest he’s been (on DK) over the last 10 events and it makes him more appealing.

Kevin Harvick ($9,300 DK, $12,000 FD P3)
Harvick is still searching for a win in 2021 but that doesn’t mean that he hasn’t been consistent. He has. Just not consistently great, consistently good instead. He’s always seemingly in the discussion for top-10 and occasionally top-fives this year but hasn’t been out front much all season, that could most certainly change this week as Harvick has a very good history here including winning this race a year ago and finishing second in the Sunday race as well. If he and Rodney Childers can set up the 4-car correctly, he may be a slate breaker, if he simply finishes in the top-five without leading more than a handful of laps, it’s hard to see him hitting value.

William Byron ($9,000 DK, $11,500 FD P2)
Byron has been the most consistent driver all season with the most top-10 finishes no matter the package and has a win as well. He even started in the rear last week and was able to drive back up to P3 at the end of the race and will now start P2 on Saturday. He’s done well at Pocono previously with an average finish of 8.0 and a PD of 10.6 in the last five races. Starting up front and being in a Hendrick Chevy gives him an immediate edge to lead laps and his history here gives him a great shot at competing for the win with his teammate and be a sneaky laps led dominator at a discount.

Alex Bowman ($8,600 DK, $9,500 FD P13)
Bowman looked a bit lost last week while his teammates were up in the top-five most of the day but aside from that, he’s been pretty reliable all season as is coming off signing a two-year extension. Aside from last week, he’s been very good at moving up and finishing inside the top-10 especially in this package and that should be no different this week as he’s posted two top-10s in the last five races here and he’s starting P13. Being that he’s the cheapest HMS driver, it’s possible that he’ll be the third-most-popular driver from the team in terms of draft percentage for Saturday. Bowman is fine for either format.

Kurt Busch ($8,400 DK, $8,500 FD P8)
Let’s put this up front, Busch is a risk this week for a few different reasons, but he’s still worth mentioning in the playbook. Busch has gone backward in as many races in the last 10 as he’s gone forward and he’s been a bit snake bitten with those as well. Pocono hasn’t exactly been his track either, having an average finish of 15.6 in the last five but dropping back nearly seven spots a race for those finishes. He needs 42 points (on DK) to hit value which requires a top-five finish without any laps led or fastest laps and with the chance that he goes backward, it makes Busch a tougher play than he might have been earlier this season. Christopher Bell meets that same thing too with a P9 starting spot and one top-five here in the last two races but an average finish of 21.0. If the setup is right, Bell could vie for a top-five but he’s just as likely going backward and missing value making both GPP plays.

Chris Buescher ($8,000 DK, $7,000 FD P25)
Buescher has been great in this aero setup most of the season and now has PD on his side as well. The history at Pocono is just as solid with three top-20s in the last five races and six top-20s in the last 10 similar races which includes the Indy oval. There’s no doubt that Buescher will be a popular play on Saturday as he’s the perfect mid-tier PD play to pair with the top-end guys further up the playbook.

Aric Almirola ($7,300 DK, $6,500 FD P11)
Has hell frozen over? Two weeks in a row we get Almirola in the playbook despite the season he’s having? No and yes. Last week he showed that if he gets the chance to start toward, or in that case at, the front of the pack the 10-car still has the speed in it we remember him having last year and 2019. This week he’s starting P11 by virtue of the great run he had at Nashville, and Pocono has been a good track for him since coming to SHR with four top-15s including two top-fives. At this price point and starting spot, he only needs to move up two spots to hit value and I certainly think that’s doable.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,100 DK, $8,200 FD P21)
In a starting spot that matches his car number, the People’s Champ is in a good spot for PD especially when you consider that the races in which he’s moved up this year have been in this 550-horsepower package. DiBenedetto has also posted four top-20s and an average finish of 16.0 in the last five Pocono races and seven top-20s in the last 10 similar races. The bigger tracks are also usually where the Wood Brothers cars do best historically as another piece in his corner. It won’t be shocking if he’s a chalky play and he’s good for both formats.

Chase Briscoe ($6,900 DK, $5,000 FD P28)
Briscoe is a rookie in the Cup series but he’s been good at Pocono in the Xfinity series with a win and two top-fives in three races. Don’t expect a result like that this week but he can certainly lock down a top-20 or move up several spots after starting P28. On one hand, he’s likely to be a popular budget-type play with the PD upside but on the other hand he’s not had a great rookie season nor been that great in this package, just like his other teammates at SHR. With that being said, he’s fine for both builds.

Ross Chastain ($6,800 DK, $6,000 FD P6)
Chastain is coming off two top-seven finishes and the 42-car has looked really good over the last month or so. That being said, he’s not used to starting this close to the front here and he’s also not been much of a factor, but the equipment is much better right now than it’s been previously. There’s also the price tag which is intriguing in this starting spot because he can drop back a couple of spots and still hit value. He’s only playable in GPPs as there are just too many other upside guys to play in cash and if he in fact pulls off a similar finish to last week he more than hits 6x value.

Erik Jones ($6,400 DK, $6,500 FD P22)
Jones has been remarkably good here with four top-fives in the last five races. Yes, those finishes were in JGR equipment, but the 43-car has been capable of finishing in the top-10 this year at tracks that Jones has been comfortable at previously, and this one fits that description. Jones has also been capable of moving up through the field here to hit the 10.2 average finish and ranks eighth in the field in quality passes per race at 30.6. People will dismiss his track history because of the difference in equipment, but we already know that when he’s been good at a track previously, he shows up well this year too.

Cole Custer ($6,300 DK, $5,500 FD P26)
Custer wound up with two top-20 finishes last year which is nice, though we have to factor in that the SHR equipment has been as consistent this year as it was last year. Starting P26 there is nice PD upside there this week if he can match the showings from last year and overlook some of the disappointing showings in this package this year, he’ll pay dividends.

Ryan Preece ($6,200 DK, $4,500 FD P31)
Preece is always a scary name to have in the playbook, right up there with Ricky Stenhouse Jr., but starting P31 is similar to where he started on Saturday last year and he finished P20 in that race. Each time in the last 10 races this year that he’s started outside the top-25, he’s finished several spots better than that and so we’re banking on that this week. There is risk because his chance of crashing out is higher than others but the upside is too high to pass up at these prices.

Ryan Newman ($5,800 DK, $5,300 FD P19)
Things are simple with Newman, he’s starting P19 and averages finishing better than that by five spots in the last five Pocono races. He’s posted three top-15s in that span as well. He’s back to being the PD play we usually use him for and because he’s starting inside the top-20 he might go a bit more overlooked since most people like to play him when he’s starting worse than 20th.

Michael McDowell ($5,600 DK, $5,200 FD P17)
McDowell has been a guy we’ve been able to count on for solid finishes in this package as compared to the other aero package this year and that’s borne out in his recent showings at the Tricky Triangle with three top-20s. While the starting spot might scare some folks off, he only needs to move up ONE spot to hit value and is still capable of finishing inside the top-15 too.