NASCAR DFS Playbook: Skrewball Peanut Butter Whiskey 200

I’m probably keeping the introduction brief similar to the Truck series race. But NASCAR returns to Watkins Glen for the first time in two years. It’s a brand new track for the Truck series drivers, but luckily we have some track history and road course data to look at for the Xfinity series. Saturday’s race is scheduled for 82 laps broken into 20-20-42 lap segments with a competition caution on lap ten. The lap layouts are completely different for both races on Saturday. The Truck series is spreading their laps out almost evenly in 20-25-27 segments. Whereas the Xfinity series is going to run a 42-lap third stage so track position and pit strategy could be different for both races.

But we’re once again looking for PD and finishing position plays. If you’re looking for a dominator I would try to target just one and then seek out PD plays. We don’t have as much obvious chalk in this race as we see with the Truck series race. Plus, we’ve seen more chaos in the Xfinity series race so I’m probably playing more GPP’s for Xfinity on Saturday and leaving my Cash entries to the Truck series. Remember, this series made us bang our heads against the wall on a weekly basis leading up to the break. But I digress, here are the drivers I’m targeting as of Friday night.

Driver Pool

Ty Gibbs ($10,800; Starting P15) Playing Ty Gibbs is fine, you just have to do so with the understanding that his path to hitting value will likely need him to win with some dominator points. I’ll likely plan on being lighter than the field simply because everyone knows how good the equipment is, but in his last race at Road America he proved he was human. Now for what it’s worth, he’s run nine Xfinity races and finished in the top five in seven of them with two wins. He’s very good at this whole racing thing so he’s definitely worth getting exposure to in a 20-entry max contest.

Erik Jones ($10,600; Starting P36) Good chalk right here. This isn’t the Cup series where he’s a known risk. Taking a step down to the Xfinity series he’ll step into the 31-car which nabbed top tens at COTA and Mid-Ohio from Tyler Reddick and Josh Berry respectively. At the Cup series, Jones has three top tens and two top fives in three races at Watkins Glen. If he finishes 13th that’s 5X value, but he has a path to 6X value if he finishes in the top eight.

A.J. Allmendinger ($10,300; Starting P6) The only downside with Road Ringer Dinger this week is the lack of PD. But he’s come close to winning his last two Xfinity series races at Watkins Glen. He finished as the runner-up in 2018 and 2019, although he failed post-race tech in 2019 and was disqualified. Anytime we’re at a road course though he’s a threat to win and that’s certainly the case once again on Saturday. He won earlier this year at Mid-Ohio and won the last two Charlotte Roval races as well.

Austin Cindric $10,100; Starting P2) Cindric is a bit of a road course specialist in his own right and he’s on the front row. The only downside is unlike the Truck series race, we will have a competition caution for the Xfinity series race. He raced Allmendinger to one hell of a finish in 2019, winning the Watkins Glen race in exciting fashion. He also won DRC back in 2020 and finished second there earlier this year. He also has a win at Mid-Ohio. But his lone path to value this week is basically collecting a large majority of the few dominator points that are available and grabbing a strong finish as well. Limit exposure to just GPP’s on Saturday.

Austin Dillon (9,900; Starting P33) Dillon’s looking to get some practice in ahead of Sunday’s Cup series race where he’s criminally priced down around $6,100 but that’s a discussion for another day. On Saturday, Dillon will step into the 23-car for Our Motorsports. We know the equipment is fine for the 23-car. The results are just a little dependent on who is behind the wheel. Andy Lally got a top five in this car at Mid-Ohio and just a month ago, Ty Dillon got a top five out of this ride at Atlanta. A 13th-place finish safely gets 5X value, but we know he can get more out of this ride. This hasn’t been his greatest track historically at the Cup level, but he’s had some good runs at road courses in 2021.

Sam Mayer ($9,700; Starting P23) Mayer’s not my favorite expensive option in this race, but he’s doing everything he can to get practice in. He ran the ARCA race Friday night, he’s in the Truck series race Saturday afternoon, so by the time he gets into the 8-car he’ll have plenty of laps under his belt. I’m just a little more comfortable with him in the Truck series race as we’ve seen him struggle at the Xfinity level. He’s still incredibly young and there’s plenty of room for improvement. He basically needs a top ten to hit value so tread carefully.

Brandon Jones ($9,300; Starting P21) I hate writing this kid up especially when it seems like a safe spot to play him. Because truthfully, this is also a spot where he goes out and lets you down. He’ll either hit value or crush your lineup. There’s rarely an in-between with him. Because of the variance with Brandon Jones, let’s limit exposure to just GPP’s and spare ourselves the tilt in Cash games. He would need a top ten finish for value on Saturday.

Michael Annett ($7,700; Starting P18) DK whiffed on this price tag. Annett’s a pretty good bet to finish seventh, eighth, or ninth most weeks and he’s normally just a cash game play given his relatively safe floor. But given the starting spot and cheaper price tag, he’s both Cash and GPP eligible on Saturday. Prior to his injury, Annett was on a pretty solid run. He finished third at Road America, seventh at Mid-Ohio, and 11th at COTA. He just needs to finish 11th to hit 5X value and he finished eighth here in his last appearance at Watkins Glen two years ago. He’s likely going to be the core play for the mid-range this week.

Preston Pardus ($7,400; Starting P35) I wouldn’t call Pardus a lock because he has struggled to hit value in some of his road races this year. However, we haven’t really had exposure to him with this much PD and he is priced down a little bit. He finished 14th at COTA and 16th at Road America. A top 20 will hit 5X value and a top 15 would far exceed 6X value. He’ll likely carry a lot of ownership and still has some risk. But this could be one of the better mid-range finds for GPP’s.

Alex Labbe ($7,200; Starting P26) Never thought I’d see the day where I’d write up three DGM Racing cars, but alas, here we are. Labbe’s a pretty strong road racer overall. Watkins Glen is one of the tougher road courses on the schedule, but he has a pair of top 20’s here. He also has an average finish of 7.67 at the Roval and he grabbed a top ten at last year’s inaugural Indy Road Course race. He’s offering some PD and I feel good about him getting a top 20 on Saturday. 

Brett Moffitt ($6,400; Starting P9) I understand we typically try to target PD, but $6,400 is too cheap for Brett Moffitt. He’s actually had a very strong year in the 02-car for Our Motorsports. He’s had two solid performances on road courses this year, and two bad performances as well. But we know he has top ten upside in this car and he can hit value simply by holding his spot. This isn’t a cash game play, but if you don’t like the cheap options in this range, Moffitt’s a good punt for GPP’s and it feels wrong to call him a punt.

Stephen Leicht ($6,300; Starting P40) Leicht is a road course guy. I wouldn’t call him a “specialist” because he has had his share of stinkers. But he can’t go backward and he’s in the 61-car which has top 25 upside. Leicht has a pair of top 20 finishes here, but he hasn’t run as much as he has in previous years. If he somehow gets a Top 25 finish then he’s returning value. I just wish he was a few hundred bucks cheaper, but he can’t get you negative points in this spot.

Jade Buford ($5,600; Starting P16) I’m still a little unsure about Buford on Saturday. I like utilizing him on road courses, but Watkins Glen is a tough course and he’s not getting practice. He finished eighth at the Roval last year, 14th at Indy Road Course, and then this year he finished 13th at Mid-Ohio and then 15th at COTA. So he has proven he can just hold his spot on road courses. But I am still worried about the lack of practice for Buford on Saturday. I think I’ll mix him into some GPP lineups and hope for another top 15 finish, but I’ll try to be responsible with exposure.

Josh Williams ($4,900; Starting P19) This is too cheap for Josh Williams. Admittedly, I’m not a guy that normally plays Williams, but he’s done pretty well on road courses this year. He finished 17th at DRC, tenth at Mid-Ohio, and 17th at Road America. He basically won’t kill your lineup as long as he holds his spot in the top 20. In his lone race at Watkins Glen he finished 19th back in 2019.

Kris Wright ($4,500; Starting P24) Wright’s another cheap punt you can consider on Saturday. I probably don’t have as much confidence in him as I do in Josh Williams. But Kris Wright ran the ARCA race on Friday night and finished 13th. He’s also a road course specialist, although the results this season leave a lot to be desired. But he’s the cheapest option on the slate and if we’re going to punt to the cheapest driver, at least it’s one that specializes on road courses. He did get a top 20 earlier this year at DRC and a top 25 at Road America.

Core Drivers