NASCAR DFS Playbook: Pennzoil 150 At The Brickyard

We’re back on another road course this week, but this time around it’s Indy’s Road Course! We saw these guys run here last July and it led to a great finish. You can watch a small clip of the finish right here. But we get practice and qualifying for this race and it’s worth mentioning, this Playbook is being written before practice on Friday. I’m getting a jump on it just to get it done, but I’ll provide updates following qualifying on Saturday in the event we find ourselves with some chalky options or some value plays.

We’ve got 62 laps for Saturday’s race and I believe the stages will be broken into 20-20-22 segments. This is a very flat road course with no elevation changes so it’s different from previous road courses we’ve seen like COTA, Sonoma, Mid-Ohio, etc. There are a lot of run off’s here, meaning there are plenty of spots on this track we could see drivers run off get off the track if they miss a turn. Turns 1, 2, 7, and 12 gave drivers the most fits last year and that should be the expectation this year. Last year’s race had five cautions for 15 laps. Nearly a quarter of the race was run under yellow. So with 62 laps on the docket we have just over 40 dominator points available, and if we account for cautions, we’ll lose dominator points with fewer fastest laps available. So, as is the case with road courses, position differential and overall finishing position will play a huge role.

Practice Results

So I've got some bad news. I was unable to record practice so I didn't get my eyes on the event. I'm trying to find clips online of the practice to provide some notes so I'll make due with what's available to me.

• Michael Annett ran just two laps because he ran off the track twuce as he struggled to get into turns 4 and 7. He took the car off the track and didn't get any more laps in so his team could work on the car.
• To no surprise, Austin Cindric and A.J. Allmendinger were trading the fastest lap throughout practice. Surprisingly, Sam Mayer got into the mix at the end of practice. Mayer looked surprisingly comfortable on this track during practice.
• Depending on where they qualify, Kevin Harvick and Riley Herbst could be late additions to the Playbook. You have to assume there's some SHR equipment under the hood of Harvick's ride.
• Alex Labbe continues to be a value play with top 10-12 upside given his strong showing in practice.
• JJ Yeley's car had some smoke coming from it apparently. Yeley's stepping in as a replacement. I'll look for more info on his car, but as of right now we may need to take him out of the driver pool below.
• Justin Haley consistently ran fast laps so he may be turning into a low-owned GPP play especially given his finish here a year ago.
• Not sure why but the broadcast dedicated about four minutes to following Will Rodgers around the track and he was just ‘meh’
• Sage Karem found out how tough it can be if you overshoot turn 1 as he locked up the tires and got off track. He still churned out a top 12 lap in the 31-car, but he was abusing his tires developing flat spots so take his results with a grain of salt.

Driver Pool

Austin Cindric ($10,500) So many reasons to play Cindric today, regardless of where he starts. He was so dominant in last year’s race despite finishing just fifth. A year ago he led 21 laps and had 15 fastest laps. What hurt him was a penalty on a restart that forced him into a pass-thru penalty, and he had to climb his way back into the top five, but as you can see in the clip above, he was fighting for the win. He is my pick to win on Saturday as Roger Penske, his boss, owns this track so it’s becoming an important race for any Penske driver each year. Starting position is irrelevant. He’s one of the best road course drivers on the slate.

A.J. Allmendinger ($10,400) I wouldn’t play Allmendinger with Cindric, but of course qualifying could force me to change my mind. Dinger and Cindric are the two favorites to win this weekend although the next driver might have something to say about that. Allmendinger is a great road racer who won previously this year at Mid-Ohio and he finished second last week at Watkins Glen. In last year’s race he started at the rear and basically had to work his way back through the field twice and he grabbed a top five finish. Similar to Cindric, you can start him in Cash or GPP because the starting spot is irrelevant.

Ty Gibbs ($10,300) Gibbs is a great bet on DK Sportsbook at (+450) to win. He won last week at Watkins Glen in dominating fashion and that was without practice and qualifying. This week he has the benefit of getting experience on the track. Let’s put his part-time schedule in perspective. He’s run ten races this year and he’s won three of them with eight finishes inside the top five. I would prefer to target him as a PD play because my gut tells me that Cindric dominates the race. However, Gibbs has proven he belongs in this series and he’s coming off a win. It’s his last Xfinity race for the year and he wants to go out on a high note.

Justin Allgaier ($9,900) I love Allgaier for GPP’s this weekend. I hope he comes with a little PD, but not too much where he becomes chalk. He doesn’t get the credit for road course racing that Cindric and Allmendinger get, but he’s won three road course races throughout his career. And he was looking great early on in last year’s race. He had a top five car, but he suffered a penalty late in the race for leaving his pit box with equipment. So he was penalized and clawed his way back up for a seventh place finish late in the race. Most DFS players will pay up for the top three drivers, which makes Allgaier a great leverage play.

Noah Gragson ($9,700) My exposure to Gragson this weekend does depend on where he starts. I’m surprised he’s this expensive considering he wrecked early at Mid-Ohio, had issues starting the car at DRC, and in general it’s been a down season. But he actually had a very strong race here a year ago. He finished third and was in the mix for the win at the end. He was regularly running up front in last year’s race and I believe he got loose and spun out in stage three. Now, the late restart helped him out but even with that hiccup he got back into the top five. He’s more of a GPP play as the variance in cash games with Gragson isn’t ideal. 

Sam Mayer ($9,000) Sam Mayer grabbed a top ten last week at Watkins Glen without practice and his price actually went down. Road courses and flatter tracks tend to cater to Mayer’s strengths so he will be in play this week. However, if he qualifies outside the top 20 he’s going to present obvious chalk and I might consider fading him if that’s the case.

Andy Lally ($8,300) Can’t talk road course racing without touching on Andy Lally. But I’m going to add this caveat, he’s been priced at least $7,800 in all his races this year (all road courses) and he’s exceeded 5X value just once and 4X value twice. So while we tout him as a road course specialist, we should keep in mind that he’s not immune to bad luck or a sub-par finish. If he’s offering PD then he’s naturally in play. He’s in BJ McLeod Motorsports equipment, so it’s not nearly as good as the 23-car for Our Motorsports that he ran previously.

Preston Pardus ($7,900) Pardus is in play if the PD is there for him. The price tag is a little high and I want a healthy chunk of PD from this guy if I’m paying nearly $8K for him. He hasn’t been terrible this year for DFS, but in his last four races he’s posted 31, 27, 31, and 37 points respectively. That’s good, but that’s not necessarily optimal. You could pay down to Brett Moffitt or Ryan Sieg and potentially get that total out of them. But Pardus did finish tenth here a year ago and had an average running position in the top 15. If he’s fast in practice I may change my tune, but strangely enough I’m not overly excited about Pardus this week. He needs PD to pay this price tag off. Update: With Pardus starting tenth, I'm not getting much, if any exposure.

JJ Yeley ($7,400) We don’t typically see Yeley run road courses, but he’s stepping in for Max Papis, who tested positive for COVID-19. Yeley’s value is dependent on him starting far back. In all six of his Xfinity races this year he started outside the top 30 and gained anywhere from 9-to-26 spots of PD. The price tag is reasonable and he will be a popular option if he qualifies poorly. It is worth mentioning that in 2019 he yielded poor results in those road courses, but he was in far worse equipment. Considering he’s getting practice in this week, he’s once again in play. Update: I'm fading Yeley today. He had mechanical issues in practice and qualifying. The PD is nice, but I don't trust that the car is prepped properly.

Alex Labbe ($7,200) Alex Labbe might get overlooked this week for some of the drivers priced underneath him. He was great at this course last year and it wasn’t entirely fluky. He finished eighth and had an average running position of 11th. And even when you look back and re-watch last year’s race he was consistently running top 15 and had no troubles passing and getting a respectable finish. He’s on a bit of a cold streak with back-to-back negative DFS performances, but this is a “get right” race for him and I may look to be heavier than the field on him.

Brett Moffitt ($6,100) This price tag is reminiscent of when Moffitt was $5,700 for COTA and he started P21 and finished 12th. I acknowledged Moffitt last week as a GPP play and he did poorly since he went backward. But given that we have practice and qualifying this week, I expect Moffitt to maybe qualify outside the top 20 which is great for us because he has top ten upside. He had some mechanical issues in last year’s race here that cut his day short but if he’s offering PD he’s too good of a value to ignore.

Brandon Brown ($5,200) Now we enter the twilight zone where I just don’t understand what DraftKings is thinking with some of these bottom tier drivers. Brandon Brown has cooled off a little bit from his great start to 2021, but that doesn’t mean he’s not capable of a top 15 as we saw last week with a 12th place finish at Watkins Glen. He also finished 11th at Road America and sixth at Mid-Ohio. So he’s been pretty good on road courses and he finished 11th here last season. I’m guessing he probably qualifies just inside the top 20, but he should have no problem paying off this price tag on Saturday.

Ryan Sieg ($5,100) This is a whiff by DraftKings. This is way too cheap for Sieg. I know he sometimes gambles on tires and screws the pooch in stage three, but he’s about $1,500 too cheap this week at minimum. He’s an okay road racer but we know he has top 15 upside and if he ends up offering PD then he’ll be a popular pay down option. As of right now he’s viable in all formats given how cheap he is.

Landon Cassill ($5,000) I can’t pass up Landon Cassill at this price tag. I know I tried to swear him off like a bad habit, but I can’t pass up $5,000 especially when we know most of the field will turn to the drivers above him as value option as well. Will I be incredibly heavy on Cassill? No, but if he qualifies P25 then I’m intrigued for a driver who has top 20 upside. Similarly, we can look at Josh Williams ($4,900) in this value range. Williams has proven he can run well on road courses this year. He finished 14th last week at Watkins Glen, 17th at Road America, and tenth at Mid-Ohio. There are plenty of value options to consider this week. Williams is likely the safer option compared to Cassill, but Cassill’s ownership will likely be far lower. Tommy Joe Martins ($4,800) is another guy worth looking at in this range and he’s rolling in with seven straight finishes of 21st or better.

Stephen Leicht and Kris Wright ($4,700) It’s rare that DraftKings prices drivers at the same price tag, but that’s what we have this week. Leicht was $6,300 last week and put up 26 DraftKings points while Wright was $4,500 and put up 33 points. I’m stunned Wright only went up $200 and surprised DK dropped Leicht as low as $4,700. Both prefer road courses to any other style of track so if you have to go this low this week then here are the punts. But I’m hoping that with how cheap Moffitt, Brown, and Sieg are that you don’t need to go here. Update: Stephen Leicht did not qualify.

Core Drivers

*Again, I would advise against playing Cindric and Allmendinger together in GPP’s. It’s an okay option in Cash games, but I’d still rather stock up on PD.*