NASCAR DFS Playbook: New Holland 250

We’re down to just two races left this season for the Xfinity series and we’re heading to Michigan this weekend. Xfinity didn’t run Michigan last year due to COVID, but we do have previous track data we can look to. With two races left in the regular season before we enter the playoffs, don’t be afraid to identify and target some drivers on the bubble that need to make some aggressive moves to make the playoffs.

We only have 125 laps for Saturday’s race. That’s a decent amount, but not a ton. The stages will be broken up into 30-30-65 segments with a competition caution following Lap 15. With cautions we have about 80-ish dominator points to work with.

Driver Pool

Bubba Wallace ($11,500; Starting P36) I don’t necessarily like Bubba this week. Truth be told he’s in the Playbook to spare myself from the “Why didn’t Bubba make the Playbook” questions leading up to lock. I think he’s fine in Cash games because there’s an okay floor. Bubba’s looking to get some practice in ahead of Sunday’s Cup series race. In seven races here at the Cup level, Bubba has an average finish of about 20th. He’s also in the 61-car this week and this car has only seen the top 20 on three occasions this year. So I think he’s okay for Cash games because he’ll probably be popular enough that if he busts it won’t hurt your chances of cashing too much. But he needs a top 12 for value and I’m going to fade in GPP’s.

Ty Gibbs ($11,000; Starting P10) We have enough of a sample size to know Gibbs can contend here. He competed in the ARCA race Friday night (and obviously won, duh) so that’ll serve as his practice. The 54-car for Joe Gibbs Racing just might be the best car in the field. This car has won 9-of-24 races this year including 15 finishes in the top five. Gibbs is responsible for three of those wins and he’s actually the favorite on DK Sportsbook to win Saturday’s race. He offers a little PD and can certainly hit value with a win and we know he can collect dominator points as well.

Tyler Reddick ($10,500; Starting P22) Reddick will likely be a cash game lock for Saturday’s action. He offers plenty of PD and he won this race back in 2019. The 23-car has been competitive this year and he drove this ride to a runner-up finish at Miami. A top seven finish hits value but you have to believe he collects some fastest laps along the way. This is a guy who should be priced at $11,500… Not Bubba.

Austin Cindric ($10,000; Starting P1) Traditionally, this is a track where either the polesitter or the other driver on the front row can easily log some dominator points in the first stage. With Cindric on the pole, and as the defending Xfinity series champion, we can feel pretty good about his chances here. The resume isn’t great, but keep in mind we didn’t get to see a race here for Xfinity last season. He’s been the best driver in the field the last two years and I won’t shy away from him this week. Will I put all my eggs in this basket? No. As always, diversify your lineup builds.

Daniel Hemric ($9,800; Starting P7) Hemric finished second here back in 2018, which was his last appearance here in Xfinity. Believe it or not, Hemric is actually second in laps led this year. Cindric’s led 585 and Hemric’s at 397. The next closest driver is Just Allgaier at 251. Hemric’s always the bridesmaid and never the bride, but one of these days he’s going to score a win and he’s no stranger to getting to the front this year. He’s in JGR equipment and likely won’t have a ton of ownership. Plus, he’s offering some PD. He’s once again a dark horse for a top three finish and some dominator points.

Brandon Jones ($9,400; Starting P24) Play at your own risk. The JGR equipment is great, but he’s such a wild card. In 8-of-21 races he’s finished outside the top 30. Joe Gibbs expects better than that. The good news is that from a DFS perspective, Jones offers PD and we know this is a top ten car, arguably top five. In four races here he has three top ten finishes and that’s basically what he needs for value. He’s perfectly fine in GPP’s but due to the variance he’s not necessarily a lock in Cash games. But ownership could be so high on him that it could still work out in your favor even if he busts.

Josh Berry ($9,200; Starting P17) Berry’s going to be a busy man this weekend. He’s running the Truck series race at Gateway on Friday, then the Xfinity race on Saturday, and he’s going to run the Cup series race on Sunday. Bless this man. Plus, he got some great news earlier this week as he’ll be back with JR Motorsports next season on a full-time basis. That’s awesome news from a guy who truly earned his stripes and worked his tail off to get where he is. Berry will be in the 1-car on Saturday and has PD on his side. This is far from a short track, but the equipment and Berry make for a nice play in all formats. He will go to the rear prior to the first lap for a driver change.

Noah Gragson ($9,000; Starting P4) I don’t like Gragson as much as I like Hemric. However, I was very high on Gragson in the Best Bets article so I’ll write him up for the Playbook. He’s only playable in GPP’s but I will say there is a decent chance he goes out and gets some dominator points. It just depends on where he finishes. I like that we’ve seen him post more consistent results in recent weeks after a disastrous start to his season. And in his debut at this track a couple years ago, he finished runner-up to Tyler Reddick. Again, GPP only play but if you’re building 20 lineups to max out the Happy Hour contest, then Gragson is a driver that will likely carry low ownership who could be a second dominator in your lineup.

A.J. Allmendinger ($8,900; Starting P2) This is a little too cheap on Dinger. He won at Vegas earlier this year which compares to Michigan in terms of tire wear although the lengths are different. Overall he's just been solid on 1.5-mile tracks dating back to last season. He will be a popular dominator option since he's priced down and he's on the front row. I have him in three of my six early lineups and I could see ownership hovering around 30-35% in GPP's.

Sam Mayer ($8,500; Starting P16) I’ve been on the fence about Mayer this week. The price tag and starting spot are both fine, I just view this as a track he could find himself in trouble. But I figure since I wasted a spot in the Playbook writing up how much of a fade Bubba is, then I should compensate and include someone I’m on the fence about. Basically, it comes down to this, in a lot of my preliminary builds I keep ending up on the same drivers so I’m throwing Mayer in to differentiate. I view him more as a GPP play but he’s shown he has top ten upside… He’s also shown he can go backward and finish outside the top 25. A little too much variance here, but maybe we find chaos in a hopeless place and Mayer churns out another top ten. 

Jeb Burton ($8,300; Starting P12) This seems just a hair too cheap for Burton. I also get the sense he performs better on larger tracks. He got a top five at Daytona and he won Talladega, and I understand that those are completely different tracks compared to Michigan. But he did get a top ten in his lone race here two years ago and it’s a track he can stay on the throttle. Let’s not forget, this is still Kaulig equipment. I think a lot of players could be sleeping on Burton this week.

Brandon Brown ($7,600; Starting P25) Historically, this is not his best track. In 2019 he finished 26th and in 2017 he finished outside the top 30. However, we’re in the post-COVID age of NASCAR and Brandon Brown is having a career year. Plus, he’s fighting for a playoff spot. He’s 52 points behind Riley Herbst and he needs a good showing to gain some ground. He will be aggressive and he offers plenty of PD. He’s had some mixed results lately, but I love looking at guys on the playoff bubble this week.

Ryan Sieg ($7,400; Starting P23) The Sieg value chalk burned us pretty bad last week. Honestly, given his upside, I think he’s a little underpriced for Saturday’s race. In six races here he’s never finished worse than 19th and he has three finishes in the top 15. We should expect to get aggressive Sieg on Saturday. He’s 90 points out of a playoff spot and a win puts him in, but nobody expects him to win. A top ten is possible given what he needs to do to make the playoffs. I just hope he doesn’t gamble on old tires again…

Colin Garrett ($6,000; Starting P29) It’s hard to really trust Garrett this weekend. But the value options are very tricky. The guys we normally trust are starting a little too high and the guys offering PD aren’t great. But we’ve seen top 20 upside from Garrett before. Last year he finished 14th and 16th at Miami and Kansas and this year he finished 15th at Talladega, which doesn’t really compare that well to Michigan but let me try to make lemonade out of an egg yolk. He is in the 26-car for Sam Hunt Racing and it can be pushed to a top 20. He offers enough PD where a P21 finish is all we really need from him this weekend.

Bayley Currey ($5,400, Starting P39) For what it’s worth, I don’t really like this pick. There are probably cheaper drivers to look at. The problem we have with value this week is that Alex Labbe and Jade Buford are probably starting too high for my liking. And then the cheap drivers that actually offer PD kind of suck. So I’m adding Currey as a “hold on to your butts” suggestion. We hit the nuts on Currey earlier this year when he finished seventh at Phoenix. Since then it’s been a parade of poor performances. He has just four finishes in the top 30 in his last ten races. The equipment isn’t great. But he’s very cheap this week and he can’t kill you with PD. If you can get 15-20 DFS points, that’s not great but it’s better than a negative and if paired with the correct dominators, you can cash well. If he somehow finishes 27th then you’re getting 5X value. Again, the equipment is awful, but he’s very cheap and can only go forward.

Ryan Vargas ($4,800; Starting P35) Am I missing something here? This seems far too cheap for Vargas. We’ve seen him priced over $1,000 more and we know he has top 20 upside. Sure, the lack of practice and qualifying is bad news for these smaller teams. But he offers plenty of PD and we know there’s top 20 upside. Realistically, if he finishes 26th he’s returning value. If he can run a clean race, this is a car that should move up by default and finish well. If you aren’t sold on Vargas or you just need another driver to diversify your builds, then Jesse Little is offering PD and is only $5,000. I just do not trust his equipment one bit.

As always, I’ll likely have updates leading up to lineup lock on Saturday.

Core Drivers