Just like we did with Sonoma earlier this year, we’re heading back to Watkins Glen for the first time since 2019 after not going due to Covid restrictions last year. This has been perhaps the most popular road course on the NASCAR schedule year after year for drivers and fans alike. In terms of DFS, this race is one of the more straightforward road layouts we see. The 90 laps in the race don’t give a ton of dominator points but there are enough to make differences in standings though it’s hard to see one car leading more than 50 laps as it’s only happened twice in the last five races here.

For more strategy notes check out the Podcast and the Track Breakdown and as always you can ask all the questions you want in our Discord as well.

Average Points By Starting Spot

These charts show the average points scored for each site by starting spot over the last five races at Watkins Glen regardless of the drivers in those starting spots. They are meant to show a general strategy for building lineups and not be a hard and fast rule that those spots will score that way this weekend.

Playbook

Kyle Busch (DK $10,900 FD $12,500 P20)

Busch starting P20 because of his terrible luck at New Hampshire will make him the chalk play in Cash and GPP formats. He’s an elite road racer with a 6.8 average finish including when he had to battle back from a bad late pit stop in the 2018 event. Busch has found his groove again and the JGR teams have been better in this package this year as well. He’s safe for all formats.

Chase Elliott (DK $10,600 FD $14,500 P11)

He’s the road racing king. That’s it. That’s the write-up. Even his L1 penalty won’t scare us off simply because of what he’s capable of doing when right turns are involved. Play him in all formats without concern.

Martin Truex Jr (DK $10,400 FD $13,000 P9)

If Elliott is the road racing king, Truex is the road racing prince. He’s been very good on these layouts recently and even still this year when he’s not been on top of his game to his fullest, he’s still been able to run near the front at these tracks. Truex is a good play for either format.

Kyle Larson (DK $10,200 FD $13,500 P4)

Larson came into this season with question marks about just what he was capable of on road courses and he’s more than answered those questions. He won at Sonoma a few weeks back and could’ve won at COTA as well. Starting P4 gives him a shot to stick in the top-10 well which he’s done twice in the last four races here, though in worse equipment, and he could even lead laps if he gets through the Penske cars in front of him.

Kurt Busch (DK $10,000 FD $10,500 P17)

Busch has posted an average finish of 9.0 over the last four races with a PD mark of 10.5 to get there. Over the last 10 races at road courses, he’s posted an average finish of 10.7 with six of those being top-10 finishes. Starting P17 he’s got that great PD upside we look for and isn’t prohibitively priced either but knowing how well he’s run these races this year and the roll he’s been on he will be popular.

William Byron (DK $9,800 FD $10,800 P15)

Byron has turned into a sneaky good road racer of late as all the added practice with his road racing coach has paid off. He’s posted five top-20s in the last 10 road races. That being said though, it’s been a rough year for him on road course with two finishes in the 30s which may keep draft percentages down. He’s worth a shot in GPPs if he can better manage the race and avoid the issues that have plagued him.

Joey Logano (DK $9,600 FD $11,500 P2)

Logano’s record here isn’t the best here recently with a 21.5 average finish and just one top-five in the last four. That’s mainly due to being caught up in incidents on the track but since then he’s been more consistent at finishing well with seven top-10s in the last 10 road races. He’ll be starting on the outside pole and could wind up leading some laps at various points of the race. 

Denny Hamlin (DK $9,400 FD $12,000 P6)

Hamlin could be a threat to win on Sunday with a 5.3 average finish here in the last four races and with five top-fives in the last 10 road races as well. He’s been very good in this package this year and it’s time for Hamlin to start turning things back on for the playoffs. Starting P6 gives him solid PD upside and a shot at leading laps while staying near the front much of the day. If you want to play a JGR driver at a bit more savings who's starting next to Hamlin, Christopher Bell is in play as well starting P7 and coming off a runner-up finish at Road America. Bell also won the race at the DRC as well. It's hard to say who has lower draft percentage but both are equally as solid of plays.

Ryan Blaney (DK $9,200 FD $10,300 P3)

Blaney does have a road course win on his resume in the Cup series and at Watkins Glen he’s been solid with an average finish of 11.0 and a 5.3 PD mark. However, that does mean that he doesn’t usually start this close to the front. Couple that with the fact that he’s not been as good in this package compared to the 550-horsepower package this year and you have a driver who is capable of being a slate breaker but also a bust in equal weights.

Brad Keselowski (DK $9,000 FD $9,500 P1)

Keselowski is on the pole for Sunday and that should give him the leg up to leading some laps, but in general the pole-sitter has dropped back a few spots here over the last few races. Over the last 10 road races, Keselowski has averaged a 14.6 finish with a handful of laps led in each, though he’s averaged about a dozen at Watkins Glen. He’s a risk in cash simply for going backward but in GPP it could pay with some quick laps led.

Alex Bowman (DK $8,600 FD $10,000 P10)

Bowman is coming off an L1 penalty from New Hampshire and that may affect his run this weekend, though there’s no way of knowing beforehand. However, that being said, Bowman is a pretty solid road racer with nine top-15s in the last 10 road races and an average finish of 9.3 and he’s led laps in that span too. The Hendrick cars may have slowed a tad recently but they’re still some of the fastest cars on the track week in and week out and that makes him viable at basically average price on both sites.

Chase Briscoe (DK $8,300 FD $8,000 P27)

Briscoe is an excellent road racer and has been at each level, including Cup. Even though he’s not raced at The Glen in a Cup car, he does have three top-20s in his four road races this year including two top-10s and has moved up an average of 11 spots a race to accomplish that average finish. He will be a popular play in the mid-tier for both formats but he’s well worth the exposure for sure.

Ross Chastain (DK $8,100 FD $8,500 P12)

Chastain put on a serious show at COTA several races ago and had good runs at Sonoma and Road America all providing the three top-10s he’s posted in the last eight Cup road races. Now coming off the news that he’ll be the second driver for Track House going forward, he could be in line for another good run at Watkins Glen.

Chris Buescher (DK $7,800 FD $6,800 P24)

A driver below him in the playbook and right next to him in the grid, McDowell, has a similar record to Buescher over the last four races here and the last 10 road races overall. Buescher has three top-20s in the last four Watkins Glen events and 10 top-20s in the last 10 road races. Buescher is also used to moving up to get those top-20 spots so while he’s posted a similar record to McDowell, Buescher is likely to be higher played than him.

Matt DiBenedetto (DK $7,600 FD $8,300 P14)

Did you realize that DiBenedetto has six top-15s in the last 10 road races? It shouldn’t necessarily come as a shock given that we’ve seen him run up front at them for a few years now including leading a bunch of laps at Road America. Starting P14 gives him an inside track to finishing in the top-10 on Sunday and finishing 10th is all he really needs to do at this price.

Daniel Suarez (DK $7,500 FD $7,500 P21)

Suarez has stated before that he loves road racing and in fact that what he came up doing in Mexico and the lower levels of racing stateside. At Watkins Glen he’s done well with a couple of top-fives and a top-20 in his three runs here and in the last 10 road races overall he’s posted four top-20s. At Sonoma he ran well moving up four spots and nabbing a P12. The momentum building with Track House as a team could help him get better finishes down the stretch than we might expect.

Michael McDowell (DK $7,200 FD $7,300 P25)

McDowell has plenty of experience in open-wheel and road racing as was a driving instructor on road courses before coming to the Cup series. In the last four races at Watkins Glen, he’s posted four top-20 finishes with an average finish of 15.8. This year he really showed well at the Daytona Road Course and COTA before struggling at the last two. With a few others in a similar range, it may depress his draft percentage though he still has the upside to be a valuable play.

Erik Jones (DK $7,000 FD $5,500 P22)

Jones has continued to prove that his skill will outpace the equipment depending on the track he’s at and that’s certainly been the case on road courses. The driver of the 43-car has moved up well over the last few road races and his average finish over the last four Watkins Glen races has been an impressive 6.3 (though that was all in the 20-car). He still flies under the radar even at road courses but works well in GPP builds as a lower-mid-tier priced driver.

James Davison (DK $5,900 FD $2,500 P36)

Davison was the center of a bit of a debate for Dan and I had on the podcast about cheaper guys and while Dan wasn’t sold on Davison, he’s still a guy who knows how to handle a road course layout regardless of the equipment that he’s in. Davison has moved up a handful of spots each road race that he’s run in this year and now he’s starting in the last row with free PD upside. He’s only worthy of a GPP dart throw.

Corey Lajoie (DK $5,800 FD $4,000 P29)

Lajoie has a couple of top-20 finishes to his credit in the last nine road races he’s run and both came this year in the 7-car at Sonoma and COTA while finishing P21 at Road America. This kind of racing fits Lajoie’s racing style best and the 7-car team has shown to be better in this package as well. He can be used as a cheap play in either format.