Kalshi Predictions Market NASCAR Picks: Best Predictions for the Daytona 500

The NASCAR season kicks off with "The Great American Race", the Daytona 500. As the field of 40 drivers prepares to tackle the high banks of Daytona International Speedway, the Kalshi prediction market offers a unique platform to trade on the race winner. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, Kalshi allows you to trade on "Yes" or "No" outcomes with prices ranging from 1¢ to 99¢, representing the market's implied probability of a driver winning.

Daytona is famous for pack racing and "The Big One," making it one of the most volatile events on the sporting calendar. This volatility creates massive opportunities in the prediction market, where even the favorites are priced at a significant discount compared to other sports.

Top Kalshi Prediction Market NASCAR Picks

Ryan Blaney to Win (Trading at ~9¢)

Ryan Blaney enters as the market favorite, with his contract trading at 8.99¢ (implying an 8.9% chance to win). The 2023 Cup Series champion is widely regarded as the best superspeedway racer in the field today. Given his ability to navigate the draft and his history of finding the front at the end of these races, 9¢ represents a strong anchor for a "Yes" portfolio.

Denny Hamlin to Win (Trading at ~8¢)

A three-time Daytona 500 winner, Denny Hamlin is trading at 8.16¢. Hamlin is the active leader in wins at this track and is known for his aggressive but calculated drafting style. In a race where experience is everything, getting a multi-time winner at an 8¢ price point offers incredible leverage if he can avoid the mid-race carnage.

William Byron to Win (Trading at ~8¢)

The defending 2024 Daytona 500 champion, William Byron, is priced at 7.77¢. Hendrick Motorsports always brings elite power to the superspeedways, and Byron has proven he can close the deal. At under 8¢, you are getting the most recent winner of this race at a significant market discount.
 

Best Value Plays on the Kalshi Market Board

Chase Elliott to Win (Trading at ~6¢)

Chase Elliott is trading at 6.02¢. While he is still hunting for his first Daytona 500 Harley J. Earl trophy, he is consistently in the mix during the final laps. As NASCAR’s most popular driver, his price often fluctuates, but at 6¢, he is priced as a mid-tier threat despite having top-tier equipment and drafting skill.

Kyle Larson to Win (Trading at ~6¢)

Often considered the best pure driver in the world, Kyle Larson is priced at 5.63¢. Superspeedway racing hasn't historically been his strongest suit, but his talent level is so high that he can win on any given Sunday. If Larson can survive the "Big One," 6¢ will look like a massive steal come the white flag.

Longshot Contracts With Upside

Bubba Wallace to Win (Trading at ~4¢)

Bubba Wallace is a superspeedway specialist trading at just 4.35¢. He has a victory at Talladega and multiple runner-up finishes at Daytona. The market often underestimates Wallace’s drafting prowess, making this a high-upside "Yes" play for a driver who almost always finds himself in the top five during the closing stages.

Ross Chastain to Win (Trading at ~3¢)

At 3.39¢, "Melon Man" Ross Chastain is a perfect spec play. His aggressive "win or wear it" style is tailor-made for the chaotic final laps of Daytona. If he is within striking distance on the final restart, he will take any gap available to get to the front.

Jimmie Johnson to Win (Trading at ~3¢)

The legend is back for another run at the 500, trading at 2.61¢. While he is a part-time driver now, you can never count out a seven-time champion and two-time Daytona 500 winner. At less than 3¢, this is a sentimental play with legitimate veteran upside.

How to Approach Kalshi Prediction Markets for the Daytona 500

1. The "Big One" Volatility: At Daytona, 20+ cars can be wiped out in a single accident. This makes buying "Yes" contracts on multiple drivers (a portfolio) much smarter than going all-in on one.
2. Trade the Momentum: You don't have to wait for the checkered flag. If you buy Bubba Wallace at 4¢ and he wins Stage 1, his price might jump to 12¢. You can sell your contracts right then and lock in a 200% profit before the risk of a late-race crash increases.
3. The Drafting Partner Strategy: Watch the manufacturers. If Ford (Blaney, Logano, Keselowski) or Chevy (Byron, Elliott, Larson) starts working together to dominate the lead, buy "Yes" contracts on the drivers at the front of that line.

How To Use Our Kalshi Daytona 500 Promo Code ALARMX

You’ll be working towards that guaranteed bonus even before the engines fire on Sunday when you use the steps below:

1. Join here 👈🏼 for a new Kalshi account
2. Enter our Kalshi Daytona 500 promo code ALARMX
3. Complete 100 contracts (1-99 cents each)

Remember, it doesn’t matter if a single one of those contracts is successful (or which drivers you target) for you to then get your $10 bonus!