We’re heading to the fastest two miles in NASCAR. Michigan International Speedway is all about raw speed, clean air, and who brought the biggest engine to the party. Long green-flag runs are the norm here, so you need drivers who can hold pace, manage track position, and punch hard on restarts.

Here’s who I’m backing this week: two favorites, two mid-tier values, two longshots, and three props that are too sharp to ignore.

 

 


 

The Favorites

Denny Hamlin (+600 at BetMGM)
He’s been flirting with wins for weeks, and Michigan has treated him well. Two wins, six top-six finishes in his last seven starts here, and speed every single week when the car doesn’t fall apart. The 11 team was clean at Nashville and grabbed third. If they stay out of their own way, he’ll be in the mix again.

Kyle Larson (+650 at FanDuel)
Larson owns this place. He won three straight here early in his career and was leading again last year before a late wreck ended the run. He’s already got wins this season at Homestead and Kansas, two tracks where top-end speed matters just as much. Hendrick brings him a rocket almost every week. Michigan is built for him.

 

 


 

Mid-Tier Targets

William Byron (+900 at FanDuel)
Byron’s been knocking on the door for a month. Second at Darlington. Second at Charlotte. Fifth last week. Over 500 laps led in the last two intermediate races. He finished runner-up at Michigan last year and is driving like a man ready to cash in. This might be the week it all lines up.

Josh Berry (+3500 at BetMGM)
Berry’s been a beast on intermediates. He won Vegas. Was a legit threat at Texas and Kansas. Nearly went toe to toe with Larson before a pit penalty took him out of the picture. Michigan favors raw pace and confident setups. Berry checks both boxes. This number should not be this long.

 

 


 

Longshots Worth a Look

Erik Jones (+6000 at BetMGM)
Jones is from Michigan and runs like it. He’s got two top-10s here in the Next Gen car and is coming off a run of strong finishes. Seventh at Nashville. Fifth at Texas. Thirteenth at Charlotte. Legacy Motor Club is heating up and Jones could easily be the fastest Toyota not named Hamlin on Sunday.

AJ Allmendinger (+15000 at ESPN BET)
He’s not just a road course guy. Dinger has three top-10s on intermediate tracks this season. He was flying through the field here last year before a tire failure ended it early. Kaulig has found speed. AJ’s form is peaking. Ladder him across the board. Top 10 at +550. Top 5 at +1800. Outright if you want to chase chaos.

 

 


 

Props That Pop

Bubba Wallace – Top 5 Finish (+375 at BetMGM)
This is a track that suits Bubba. He nearly won here in 2022, led laps in 2023, and just dropped a P6 at Nashville. He’s had elite speed at high-horsepower tracks all season. When the day stays clean, he delivers. At this number, the upside is too strong to pass.

Denny Hamlin – Top 5 Finish (+125 at BetRivers)
Safe with serious upside. Hamlin has been locked in on big ovals and has two top-fives in the last three Michigan races. He would’ve had another last year if not for a pit blunder. If he gets a clean day, this cashes.

Austin Cindric – Top 10 Finish (+240 at FanDuel)
Cindric has been sneaky good on tracks like this. Top-11 average running position at four of six comparable intermediates. Penske power matters here. Cindric’s shown the pace. This is a great number if he qualifies inside the top 15.

 

 


 

Final Thoughts

Michigan is a speed track where the best equipment rises. You want guys with horsepower, confidence, and track position. Whether you're betting on top-tier talent like Larson and Hamlin or rolling the dice on Berry and Dinger, this is the kind of slate that rewards sharp eyes.

Fire with confidence. Let’s cash.
 

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