Playoff elimination night at “The Last Great Colosseum” is always one of the most intense races of the year. Bristol’s high-banked half-mile demands track position, tire management, and nerves of steel over 500 laps. With Larson’s recent dominance, Hamlin’s clutch playoff form, and a mix of bubble drivers in must-win territory, Saturday night sets up for fireworks under the lights.

 

 

 

Bass Pro Shops Night Race: The Favorites

Kyle Larson (+350 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Larson has turned Bristol into his personal playground with wins in the last two races here, leading more than 400 laps in each. He’s posted a 2.8 average finish in his last five Bristol starts and ranked top 3 in green-flag speed both here and Richmond. Already locked into the next round, Larson and the No. 5 can be aggressive on strategy and pile up laps led.

Denny Hamlin (+550 at BetRivers Sportsbook)

Hamlin has won two of the last four Bristol races and owns three Night Race trophies overall. He’s finished top 5 in four of the last six here and carries the second-best average driver rating at this track over the past five years. With playoff points to gain and JGR’s short-track program on point, Hamlin is the clearest challenger to Larson’s stranglehold.

 

 

 

Bass Pro Shops Night Race: Mid-Tier Targets

Christopher Bell (+1100 at BetRivers Sportsbook)

Bell has quietly been one of the most consistent at Bristol with five straight top-10s and 359 laps led in that span. He starts ninth but has the speed to move forward, and he’s been one of the best JGR drivers at conserving tires on concrete. At +800, Bell offers top-tier form at a discounted price.

Chase Briscoe (+1400 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Briscoe is red-hot with a win at Darlington and a runner-up at Gateway to open the playoffs. He finished fourth here in the spring despite starting 14th, and his practice averages this week show long-run stability. With momentum and playoff confidence, Briscoe is a value buy compared to Larson and Hamlin.

 

 

 

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Longshots Worth a Look

Alex Bowman (+2500 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Bowman is in a must-win situation, sitting well below the cutline, and that urgency matters. He’s started on pole in the last two Bristol races, leading 30+ laps each time, and HMS speed has been undeniable here. If he avoids attrition, Bowman could finally convert his track position into a playoff-saving finish.

Brad Keselowski (+2700 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Keselowski has three career Bristol wins and nearly stole one in 2022 when he led 100+ laps. He was top-5 in practice averages this week and RFK’s short-track program has shown real gains. At 30-1, his veteran craft and ability to manage attrition make him an excellent dark-horse play.

 

 

 

Bass Pro Shops Night Race: YOLO Dart of the Week

Ross Chastain (+4000 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Chastain has been steady at Bristol with Trackhouse, finishing top-15 in four of his last five starts, including P7 this spring and P6 in 2022. He’s shown he can move forward from deep in the field, and at +4000 you’re getting a driver with proven consistency here and the upside to surprise.

 

 

 

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Props That Pop

Ross Chastain Top 10 (+150 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The outright YOLO dart is about chasing ceiling — this play is about buying stability. Chastain has finished top-15 in four of his last five Bristol starts with Trackhouse, including P7 this spring and P6 in 2022. At plus money for a top-10, the value doesn’t match the longshot price; it’s a safer way to back his consistency.

Christopher Bell Top 5 (+115 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Bell has been one of the most reliable short-track drivers in the series, and Bristol fits his profile. Like Chastain, he brings repeatable top-tier speed here, but Bell’s ceiling is more firmly tied to top-5 results. At slight plus money, this prop is less about gambling on variance and more about leaning into a proven Bristol ace.

Matchup: Chase Elliott (-160) over Joey Logano (+125, BetMGM Sportsbook)

Elliott has been rock solid at Bristol — a win, two runner-ups, and six top-10s in his last eight starts. Logano has gone the other direction, finishing 24th or worse in four of his last five with an average finish of 27.0. At -160, this is the clearest edge on the board.

 

 

 

Bass Pro Shops Night Race: Final Thoughts

Bristol rewards drivers with proven track records, and that’s where the value sits this week. Chastain’s +4000 outright is worth a dart given his steady top-15 history. Bell is a reliable top-five play, and Elliott over Logano is the most confident matchup on the board. A mix of one outright and a couple of props is the sharp way to attack this race.