Welcome to Fantasy Alarm’s top MLB Underdog Pick'em plays for Monday, August 4, 2025! If you’re looking to crush your MLB player props and pick'em contests, we’ve got you covered with two strong selections for today’s action. 

Before we dive in, if you haven’t signed up at Underdog yet use the promo code ALARM at signup and you’ll get an instant deposit match up to $1,000 in bonus cash, plus a free pick to parlay with these recommendations. Let’s get into the plays!

 

 

MLB Underdog Picks: Monday, 8/4 - MLB Projections

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Erick Fedde Underdog MLB Pick - Higher Than 2.5 Earned Runs

Erick Fedde, recently traded to the Braves, has struggled with a 5.22 ERA in 2025 and a brutal 13.25 ERA over his last five starts (23 ER in 18 IP). The Brewers’ .236 BA, .327 OBP, and .406 SLG against righties suggest they’ll exploit Fedde’s issues at neutral Truist Park. His high walk rate (47 in 101 2/3 innings) further increases the likelihood of runners scoring. Recent outings, like allowing 7 ER on June 30, show he’s prone to blowups against decent lineups

 

 

Yusei Kikuchi Underdog MLB Pick - Higher Than 5.5 Strikeouts

Kikuchi, an All-Star with a 3.30 ERA and 9.28 K/9, faces a Rays team struggling against lefties, owning a 27.6% strikeout rate over the last 30 days. Kikuchi's shown a high of 8 K’s in recent starts and combined with pitcher-friendly Angel Stadium, support a high strikeout total. Kikuchi’s new sweeper pitch has boosted his whiff rate, especially against weaker offenses. The Rays’ low contact rate against lefties makes this matchup even more favorable.

 

 

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