Welcome back to another week of MLB Underdog picks and MLB player props as we dive into Monday's Major League Baseball schedule. With the MLB Trade Deadline coming up tomorrow, be sure to keep track of every MLB trade rumor and baseball roster move as you're locking in MLB bets and props. Our top MLB picks on Underdog Fantasy tonight feature Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Chris Bassitt taking on the Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Guardians All-Star Jose Ramirez in a battle with the Houston Astros. Check out these free MLB player props and MLB daily picks on Underdog Fantasy for “Pick'Em” contests tonight. Don't forget to check out the latest MLB weather report and the confirmed MLB lineups when placing those MLB betting picks. Plus, the MLB daily projections and MLB Batter vs Pitcher page will help you find the best matchups for MLB player props and MLB DFS lineups. Let's dive into the top MLB player picks on Underdog Fantasy for Monday, July 31st.
MLB Underdog Fantasy Top Picks July 31
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians – OVER 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI
Houston Astros starter J.P. France is having an impressive rookie season, but he’s also prone to regress. The right-hander’s 4.34 xERA and 4.33 FIP are way higher than his current 2.87 ERA as he’s gotten lucky to not have allowed more runs in some starts. Some indicators suggesting France hasn’t been as dominant as that low ERA says include a higher 81.1% strand rate, a lower 16.7% strikeout rate, and a chase rate that’s in the bottom 4% of MLB percentile ranks. With all of this in mind, let’s bet against France tonight with a Jose Ramirez prop. The Cleveland Guardians are a top-tier offense vs right-handed pitching over the past two weeks (.353 wOBA) and Ramirez can anchor a lineup that may give France some trouble tonight. Ramirez is hitting a solid .317 with a .914 OPS over the past 15 games and he’s gone over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI in nine of the past 13 games. The Guardians’ third baseman also boasts better splits vs righties (.325 BA, .957 OPS) than lefties (.226 BA, .689 OPS) this season. Plus, France’s 3.96 ERA and 5.34 FIP at home are a bit concerning here. For the cherry on top, Ramirez went 2-for-4 against France in a June matchup.
Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays – UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
We have a marquee AL East matchup on tap tonight with the Baltimore Orioles taking on the Toronto Blue Jays. Let’s grab a player prop from this battle and target Chris Bassitt at home. The Blue Jays righty boasts some strong home splits this season with a 2.24 ERA and 3.20 FIP at home compared to a 5.63 ERA and 6.20 FIP on the road. Those are some night-and-day numbers. Bassitt has also held opposing hitters to a .167 batting average and .230 wOBA at home so far. Enter the Orioles, who have the league’s worst offense vs right-handed pitching over the past two weeks. The O’s have a .253 wOBA, .197 BA, .122 ISO, and 57 wRC+ vs righties in this recent stretch. They’ve been a bit better in the past week, but still a bottom-5 lineup against right-handers. Bassitt should be able to limit the damage in this home matchup. He’s allowed fewer than 2.5 earned runs in eight of 10 home starts this year and in three straight outings overall since the All-Star break. Although Baltimore lit him up for eight runs back in June, that was a road outing for Bassitt and he should have the upper hand for this rematch in Toronto.
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves - MORE than 1.5 Total Bases
Over Riley’s last 11 games, he has a 1.023 SLG, 274 wRC+ and eight home runs. He’s absolutely tearing the cover off the baseball and he’s in his home park tonight, where he’s posted a .937 OPS and .257 ISO this year. Los Angeles’ Griffin Canning has displayed some reverse splits this season, surrendering a .506 SLG to right-handed hitters this season, including 11 of the 16 home runs that he’s allowed, good for a 2.23 HR/9 mark. Last but not least, if we solely look at the month of July, Riley has 88 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, and he’s sporting a .289/.330/.627 slash line with a .337 ISO and 55 percent hard hit rate.
Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves - MORE than 2 Walks Allowed
If this line was at 1.5, it would be the first prop listed in this article and it would be a SMASH play. With it sitting at two, there’s some push potential, which I admittedly don’t love, but Morton can lose the feel of the strike zone at times. He has at least two walks in all but three starts this year, and three or more in exactly half of his outings this season. In the month of July, the Angels have the ninth-highest walk rate, coming in at 9.3 percent, so if they can remain patient and not leave the zone, Morton should hand out a few free passes.
Alex Bregman, Houston Astros - MORE than 0.5 Singles
Bregman has been seeing the ball well of late, posting a .324 batting average and .473 wOBA over his last 10 games (41 PA). He’s found his power stroke of late, but today, we just need a single, which is a statistic he’s recorded in 11 of his last 19 games. He’s hitting right-handed pitching at a .389 clip in July, and for the entire 2023 season, he’s sporting a .288 average against righties. Tonight, he gets to face Noah Syndergaard, making his first start as a member of the Cleveland Guardians, and it just so happens to be his first start in the bigs since June 7. Syndergaard allowed six earned runs on 10 hits across 10 innings of work during his rehab stint, and prior to getting injured with the Dodgers, the veteran righty surrendered a .327/.362/.520 slash line to right-handed hitters.
MLB Best Bets
If you are looking for some MLB Best Bets today, check out our MLB betting picks for today's slate of games.
For those who play MLB DFS, go All-Pro with Fantasy Alarm and save 50% off the first six months with promo code MLB50. By going All-Pro you get access to ALL DFS content and premium discord access for just $19.98 over the first sixth months!
Related MLB Links: