Looking for the best Underdog Fantasy MLB picks today? Our Underdog MLB Pick'em predictions for Sunday, May 17, 2026, spotlight two MLB player props worth targeting on today’s action-packed MLB slate. The walks allowed line for Paul Skenes and Colin Rea’s earned runs allowed prop both come with clear situational edges backed by current form, matchup data, and recent trends.

If you are building your Underdog Pick'em entry for today’s MLB slate, here is the full case for where we land on both and why the MLB DFS projections set up the way they do.

 

What are the Best Underdog MLB Pick'em Picks Today?

Today’s two best Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick'em plays are Paul Skenes under 1.5 walks allowed and Colin Rea over 2.5 earned runs allowed. Both props are supported by matchup data, current streaks, and favorable line construction heading into an action-packed day of baseball. Read below for the complete analysis on each.

 

Paul Skenes MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick:  LOWER than 1.5 Walks Allowed

We love Paul Skenes at home, there’s no other way to say it. For his career, he has a 2.01 ERA and 5.2% walk rate when pitching at home. Thus far in 2026, he’s posted a 1.53 ERA and 2.8% walk rate across 29.1 IP at home! He’s found his groove of late, and he’s posted a 38:0 K/BB ratio over his last five starts (32 IP)!

He’ll take on the Philadelphia Phillies today, and despite a lot of notable names in their lineup, they’ve been lackluster in the walk department. While Philly does boast the second-best batting average in baseball over the last two weeks, they have the sixth-lowest walk rate (6.6%), and for the entire season, only the Giants and Blue Jays have a lower walk rate versus RHP than the Phillies.

 

Colin Rea MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: HIGHER than 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed

Since joining the Chicago rotation on a regular basis, Rea has put forth a 5.40 ERA, 4.70 FIP, 1.44 HR/9, and 1.72 WHIP across five starts. He’s routinely pitching around trouble, and a sub-20% strikeout rate is less than ideal. The wind is ripping in today, which helps Rea, but this Chicago team can be quite powerful, and I still expect them to knock Rea around a little bit. With all the hard contact that Rea allows, and his significant issues with left-handed hitters, Munetaka Murakami and Colson Montgomery have enough raw power to send one to the seats.

Over the last two weeks, the White Sox have the second-highest ISO (.232) and wOBA (.360) in baseball! If we look just at the month of May against RHP, the White Sox are a top-two team in the following offensive categories: SLG, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. Oh, they also have the highest hard hit rate in the league!

Rea’s struggles should continue into this matchup, and watch for those Chicago lefties to make things tough on Rea, and it’s just a matter of time until the White Sox put some runs on the board against the Cubs’ righty.

 

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If you have not yet signed up for Underdog Fantasy, there is no better time than tonight. New users who register using promo code ALARM will receive a free pick plus $50 instantly, giving you real money to work with on this slate and every MLB game going forward. Visit fantasyalarm.com/offers to lock in your bonus before the evening games get underway.