MLB Streaks & Trends Week 7: Seiya Suzuki Enjoying Excellent Month of May

From today until the end of the Major League Baseball season, Saturday is for looking at the various streaks and trends across the MLB, as well as those fantasy baseball players with rising or falling stock. Who should be your priority waiver wire pickups? Who deserves some of your precious FAAB? Are there any potential fantasy baseball buy-low trade candidates? As always, we’ll start by talking about some fantasy baseball risers and fallers, highlighted by Seiya Suzuki of the Chicago Cubs, and James Paxton of the Boston Red Sox. If your fantasy baseball team needs some help in saves, or saves and holds, look to Miguel Castro in Arizona. On the other hand, don’t freak out about Julio Rodriguez’s slow start to the season and don’t you dare throw out the fantasy baseball bust label on him yet. Bryan De La Cruz owns the longest hit streak in Major League Baseball at the moment, and two Cardinals have double-digit hit streaks at the moment. Let’s take a look at some of the notable hit streaks and current trends across Major League Baseball, as well as fantasy baseball risers and fallers.

Fantasy Baseball Risers

Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs

Once he returned to the lineup, he opened the year hitting .254 with a 24.2 percent strikeout rate in the month of April. Well, once the calendar flipped to May, Suzuki turned it on. In May, he’s hitting .333 with a 22.1 percent strikeout rate, and his .632 SLG is fueled by four home runs and five doubles across 68 plate appearances. He’s absolutely crushing left-handers, but don’t ignore that .829 OPS against righties either. There’s a lot to like about the Chicago offense, when they are on, and Suzuki is currently on pace to end the year with 35 doubles, 25 home runs, 86 RBI, and five stolen bases. He’s a must add for me if he’s somehow still available out there.

James Paxton, Boston Red Sox

Durability is always the concern with Paxton, but when healthy, he can do a lot of good things for the Red Sox and fantasy managers alike. Through two starts this year, he’s posted a 2.45 ERA and 14:3 K/BB ratio. It’s a very, very small sample size, but his velocity is up, which is encouraging, and he’s using his curveball more than he did in 2021. Ideally, his ground ball rates return to more normal marks, but fantasy managers need him to stay healthy, but that’s always been the question mark. Since logging 150.2 IP for the Yankees in 2019, he logged just 21.2 IP from 2020-2022.

Miguel Castro, Arizona Diamondbacks

Castro’s 2.75 ERA is solid, but beyond that, he’s striking out less than one batter per inning, and only has three saves. So, what’s the fantasy allure here? Well, his save chances are coming, and if you’re in a league that values saves and holds, he’s incredibly valuable, seeing as he has two wins, three saves, and seven holds on the year. He’s one of 17 pitchers with at least ten saves + holds on the season, and Arizona could start using him more in the ninth inning if they so choose. I doubt Arizona will ever commit to him, or anyone, as their only ninth-inning man, but Castro has been excellent this year. He does a great job limiting hard contact, and there is some strikeout upside seeing as he has two pitches with a 33 percent or higher whiff rate.

Honorable Mention: Mitch Keller, Eury Perez, Matt McClain, Mark Vientos, Louie Varland, Tyler Wells

Fantasy Baseball Fallers

Matt Chapman, Toronto Blue Jays

Chapman is a streaky hitter, and everyone knows it. His early season production was off the charts, and now he just finds himself in a bit of a rut. He’s hitting just .182 in May with a 32.9 percent strikeout rate. Regression was in store, as Chapman simply wasn’t going to maintain his otherworldly pace to begin the season.

Additionally, when viewing his strikeout rate, it was hanging closer to league average, when he’s routinely above that mark.

Honestly, these sorts of streaks are common to Chapman, and fantasy owners need to just ride the wave. It doesn’t make things easy, I’m sure, but he’ll turn it around. During these times, the key thing to remember with Chapman is that when he’s white hot, he’s not that good, and when he’s ice cold, he’s not that bad. Ultimately, you need to just remind yourself of that, and maybe have another option at the hot corner for when he does find himself in these slumps.

Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners

Before freaking out about him moving out of the leadoff spot, just catch your breath for a second. Rodriguez has struggled this year, yes, we know that. The strikeouts are up, slugging percentage is down, barrel rate is down, etc. However, his xBA is higher than what it was last year, most of his batted ball metrics are near where they were last year, and his current numbers extrapolated over a full 162 games come out to 104 runs scored, 26 home runs, 80 RBI, and 26 stolen bases. He’ll get back to the leadoff spot at some point, as they need to maximize his at-bats, but don’t freak out over Rodriguez. He’s still just 22-years-old with sky-high expectations, and even if he only hits 26 home runs with 104 runs scored and 26 stolen bases, keep in mind that no one did that last year in Major League Baseball.

Honorable Mention: Clarke Schmidt, J.P. France, Hayden Wesneski, Jose Miranda, Nestor Cortes

Statistical Credits:
baseballsavant.mlb.com
fangraphs.com
baseballmusings.com

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