MLB DFS Playbook July 7: Top Plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
Published: Jul 07, 2023
The final Friday before the MLB All-Star break provides us with a 12-game MLB DFS main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel with some juicy matchups to target which includes tonight's top priced pitcher on DraftKings in Andrew Abbott looking to keep his impressive start going against the Brewers and the Arizona Diamondbacks in a good spot against the Pirates. Be sure to check in with our MLB DFS Tools, with the daily MLB projections, MLB DFS rostership projections, and our MLB DFS Lineup Generator when building those lineups today to help you decide which players you should be targeting!
MLB DFS Playbook: July 7
MLB Weather Updates
Texas Rangers vs Washington Nationals
As of right now this is really the only game we will have to worry about as Washington has a reputation of postponing games at the hint of wet weather. There are thunderstorms in the area and if the rain comes across the stadium this one could be in trouble.
DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts
There isn't a ton of value starting pitching on tonight's slate and while there are some dart-throws in the mid-tier, I do think spending up for pitching is the route to go while finding some value bats to build around your core stacks is how I'm approaching tonight's slate.
Recommended DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options for Strikeouts
- Andrew Abbott vs Milwaukee Brewers
- Zac Gallen vs Pittsburgh Pirates
- Hunter Brown vs Seattle Mariners
- Corbin Burnes vs Cincinnati Reds
Best Odds for a Win
- Zac Gallen vs Pittsburgh Pirates
- Aaron Civale vs Kansas City Royals
- Luis Castillo vs Houston Astros
- Bailey Ober vs Baltimore Orioles
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Favorite Starters to Use for DFS Lineups
Andrew Abbott, SP Cincinnati Reds
Abbott started his career by throwing 17.2 innings of scoreless baseball but the lack of strikeouts were concerning and his peripheral stats suggested that regression was coming. In his three starts since he has allowed five total runs over 19.2 innings but has 30 strikeouts during that stretch. Abbott profiled as a strikeout pitcher at the minor league level and now he faces the worst team in baseball against left-handed pitching. He is going to be the top pitcher to roster on tonight's slate.
Aaron Civale, SP Cleveland Guardians
There are few good mid-tier candidates on this slate but today I find myself looking at Civale who is sitting at +140 on DK sportsbook to pick up the win which is great value for DFS. The Royals really struggle against right-handed pitching and Civale himself is on a nice little heater, posting a 2.96 ERA on the season over his eight starts. Civale isn't know to be a strikeout artist but the Royals do have a near 27% strikeout rate against righties over the past two weeks so there is a chance for some strikeout upside for Civale here today.
Austin Gomber, SP Colorado Rockies
Risky? Sure, but scared money don't make money and the numbers suggest this is a good spot to use Gomber here this evening at a ridiculously cheap price tag. On the season the Giants rank 24th in wOBA and 29th in ISO against left-handed pitching with the fourth -highest strikeout rate at 26.2%. Over the past two weeks things have been even worse with the Giants posting a .260 wOBA, .093 ISO and a .167 batting average against lefties. Gomber is coming off a good start against the Tigers in his home ballpark and should benefit from pitching away from Coors Field tonight.
Recommended DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
- Boston Red Sox vs Luis Medina
- Texas Rangers vs Trevor Williams
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs Griffin Canning
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs Rich Hill
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Favorite Hitters to Use for DFS Lineups
Ketel Marte, 2B Arizona Diamondbacks
Cover of the playbook today so you knew you would be seeing his name right here. The Pirates are sending a lefty to the mound in Rich Hill which means there are plenty of Diamondbacks that will be in our lineups which includes Marte who is hitting .304 with an .874 OPS against southpaws. Righties have excelled against Rich Hill this season, owning a .470 slugging percentage while having hit all 12 home runs he has allowed.
Mickey Moniak, OF Los Angeles Angeles
I know the numbers of late haven't been good for Moniak of late but with Trout injured he should be in the lineup and has flashed power. The matchup tonight against Gonsolin is interesting as Gonsolin has managed to limit damage on the year but has a 5.09 xFIP and an xERA of 4.55 indicating some regression is due.
Leody Taveras / Ezequiel Duran, OF Texas Rangers
We talked about this on the podcast but both of these players are just too cheap for a Rangers offense that profiles to be one of the higher scoring teams on the slate. Taveras is a great value play who hits at the bottom of the lineup but means he is part of the wrap-around stack for the Rangers where you can go Taveras, Marcus Semien and Corey Seager.
Tune Into Today's Bettor Baseball MLB DFS Livestream At 5pm ET For Updated Slate Breakdown
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