Welcome to Fantasy Alarm's MLB DFS picks and daily fantasy playbook for Wednesday, July 1st. Our MLB DFS projections combine advanced pitching metrics, platoon splits, strikeout prop data, and ownership positioning to identify the sharpest plays on every slate. Whether you are targeting DFS projections, running lineups through our DFS optimizer, tracking ownership trends, or checking confirmed lineups, Fantasy Alarm has the tools to sharpen your edge. 

Today's 6-game main slate has multiple different directions to go considering we have it's hot and super windy at Wrigley Field and hot everywhere else around the country. This MLB DFS playbook covers every key position on DraftKings and FanDuel with our best MLB DFS picks for today.

Slate: 6-Games on DK - 4 Games on FD |  Lock Time: 12:35 pm ET, Wednesday, July 1st, 2026

Vegas Totals: SD/CHC (highest-projected game), CHC/BAL (second-highest game total), WAS/BOS - DET/NYY (tied third-highest game total)

Highest K-Projections: MacKenzie Gore 6.5 O/U (-109), Will Warren 5.5 O/U (-127), Joey Cantillo 5.5 O/U (-126), Payton Tolle 5.5 O/U (-121)

MLB Weather Today, 7/1

Padres vs Cubs - Really hot and humid with winds upwards of 15 MPH blowing out.

Nationals vs Red Sox - Hot and humid with 10+ MPH winds blowing out.

Tigers vs Yankees - There are winds blowing out at 10+ MPH and it's hot.

White Sox vs Orioles - It's hot and humid and winds are blowing out a bit.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

MLB DFS Top Pitchers

Payton Tolle (BOS)

Analysis: Tolle enters this matchup completely locked in, fresh off a dominant performance against the Yankees where he tossed 7.0 scoreless innings of one-hit ball with 7 strikeouts. The matchup dynamics against the Nationals is interesting because they're striking out at an elevated 23.3% clip but they have the second highest wRC+ against them this year.

Troy Melton (DET)

Analysis:  There have been few offenses worse than the Yankees have lately. In June, the Yankees hit .215 as a team and had a 90 wRC+ against righties, which ranks 26th in baseball. They also struck out 25.2% of time. Melton's coming into this game on a roll posting back-to-back 20+ FP games and has 20 in three of four.

MacKenzie Gore (TEX)

Analysis: Since early on in his career, MacKenzie Gore has been very streaky and right now he's like Will Farrell in Old School “we're going streaking”. He's fired 6+ innings in three straight starts and has 19+ FP in all of them. Against lefties this year, Cleveland is 28th in OPS and wOBA and 29th in wRC+.

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Joey Cantillo (TOR)

Analysis: The Rangers have the third-highest K-rate against left-handed pitching this year and Cantillo has been missing bats at a really high level lately. He has a 22:3 K:BB ratio over his last three games and a career-high 12.8 SwStr%, which directly correlates to strikeouts.

Noah Schultz (CWS)

Analysis: Only six teams have a wRC+ lower than 87 against left-handed pitching, so Schultz is making his return against the right team. He hasn't missed bats at the level he has at the MiLB level, but this is an upside strikeout spot considering the O's whiff at a 25.3% clip vs. LHP. GPP darling.

Top Options For Strikeouts

K-prop lines and value ratings are incorporated below for DFS and prop context. These are the arms building the highest strikeout ceilings on the 9-game slate.

Our model identifies these arms as the highest-ceiling plays for Alt-K lines today:

Andrew Alvarez: 26.8% K% (10.3 K/9)

MacKenzie Gore: 25.3% K% (9.6 K/9)

Payton Tolle: 24.7% K% (8.7 K/9) 

Joey Cantillo: 23.6% K% (8.9 K/9)

Best Odds For A Win

The following MLB DFS picks offer a combination of favorable win odds, sustainable ERA and xFIP metrics, and soft opponent matchups. Each carries K-prop lines worth noting alongside their DFS value at reduced ownership relative to the top tier.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Stacks & Hitters

MLB DFS Top Hitters

Pete Crow-Armstrong & Seiya Suzuki (OF, CHC) 

Analysis: With an inflated game total reflecting the weather, stacking PCA and Suzuki allows you to capture premium lineup real estate in a heavy-wind environment (15+ MPH blowing out). I prefer the righties vs. Buehler, but hard to not click PCA right now.

Fernando Tatis (2B/OF, SD) & Manny Machado (3B, SD)

Analysis: Colin Rea has actually been reverse splits this year and normal for his whole career, so riddle me that. That puts Machado and Tatis Jr. firmly at the top of our boards. They both homered in the wind yesterday (Tatis x2).

Willson Contreras (1B, BOS)

Analysis: It's hot, humid, and winds are blowing out. Boston is a good offense against left-handed pitching as Willson Contreras has a .286 ISO, .383 xISO, .407 wOBA, and .438 xwOBA against them. Will he get thrown out a third straight game however?

Kevin McGonigle (3B/SS, DET) & Riley Greene (OF, DET)

Analysis: If you are looking to exploit a severe, multi-year pitching split today, locking in Detroit’s premier left-handed bats against Will Warren is an elite strategy. Throughout his professional career, Warren has struggled mightily to find answers against left-handed hitting. Both McGonigle & Greene have .360 wOBAs or better vs. RHP this year.

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Dansby Swanson (SS, CHC)

Analysis: He has 21 RBI over his last 12 games. What else is there to say? He has massive GPP winning appeal at his price and there's not much else to it.

Kerry Carpenter (OF, DET)

Analysis: Another lefty against Will Warren. Carpenter has as much power as anyone on the slate and he has a .278 ISO vs. RHP this year. Warren has a lefty problem and winds are blowing out.

Coby Mayo (3B, BAL)

Analysis: It's hard to omit a guy with a 1.100 OPS and .426 ISO versus left-handed pitching, so here we are. Coby Mayo sees a beach ball out of a lefties hand. Righties have a .206 ISO vs. Noah Schultz.

Gavin Sheets (1B/OF, SD) 

Analysis: Gavin Sheets has a .256 ISO, .358 wOBA, and 13 HR vs. RHP this year. Now you put him in a wind game? He could double dong.

Anthony Seigler (2B, BOS) 

Analysis: The Red Sox are leading Seigler off again today and he's just being handed out for free so it's worth a flier. He's definitely been better from the left side of the plate, but he's a SB threat so if he gets on, he could manufacture something big at his price.

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Primary Stack: Chicago Cubs vs Walker Buehler (SDP RHP)

Why: 5.8 runs, hot, humid, and massive winds blowing out. What is there not to like here? Buehler has been a reverse splits pitcher this year, but anything lifted could leave the yard as Wrigley Field is the most wind sensitive park in the game.

Targets: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Carson Kelly, Alex Bregman

Primary Stack: San Diego Padres vs Colin Rea (CHC RHP)

Why: The Padres are the only team with a higher implied team total than the Cubs (6 to 5.9). They have an elite matchup against Colin Rea who's struggled with righties this year and lefties historically have gotten to him. Righties have a .206 ISO and .260 xISO this year. Lefties have a .164 xISO to boot. 

Targets: Gavin Sheets, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis, Jackson Merrill, Ty France

“Contrarian” Stack: Detroit Tigers vs Will Warren (NYY RHP)

Why: The Tigers are throwing six lefties at Will Warren, which has been the split he's struggled with throughout his young career. 140 ML innings vs. LHH - .270 AVG, .350 OBP, .438 SLG%, .343 wOBA. Warm and winds are blowing out here.

Targets: Kevin McGonigle, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Colt Keith, Dillon Dingler

"Contrarian" Stack: Boston Red Sox vs Andrew Alvarez (WAS LHP)

Why: The Red Sox are a plus offense against left-handed pitching ranking T6th in wRC+ at 107. They're arguably one of the most affordable stacks on the board and it's another plus, plus, plus weather game where it's warm and there are double-digit winds.

Targets: Willson Contreras, Ceddanne Rafaela, Anthony Seigler, Romy Gonzalez, Caleb Durbin

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters & Pitchers

The "Chalk" (Popular)

The "Pivot" (Low

Owned)

The Winning Logic
Warren (SP, chalk)Cantillo (SP, lower owned)Similar ownership (slightly less for Cantillo) and the matchup is much better + he's pitching MUCH better.
Padres (Chalk)Cubs (pivot stack)Cubs are the lesser owned side of the game with 13.5 implied runs and that's VERY appealing.
Merrill + Henderson (chalk)Swanson + Contreras (lower owned)Elite HR appeal for two guys getting no ownership in plus game environments.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The foundation for every MLB DFS lineup you build today. These are the core MLB DFS picks by position across DraftKings and FanDuel.

  1. Joey Cantillo (SP1)
  2. MacKenzie Gore (SP2)
  3. Pete Crow-Armstrong (Core Bat)
  4. Seiya Suzuki (Core Bat)
  5. Manny Machado (Core Bat)
  6. Dansby Swanson (Core Value Bat)
  7. Gavin Sheets (Core Value Bat)

Player Pool

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Stacks

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