Welcome to the Fantasy Alarm MLB DFS Playbook for Wednesday, October 1st! It's time for some playoff baseball! Nothing better than MLB DFS playoff contests!

Let’s start the week on the right foot with some winning lineups today. We have a 4-game main slate in store for us this afternoon on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 1:08 PM ET. Today, we have plenty of talent on the diamond and many different ways to build your lineup. Our expert analysis is here to guide you through the top pitchers, value plays, and stackable offenses to target.

Whether chasing big GPP prizes or grinding cash games, we’ve got you covered with insights tailored to today’s matchups. Let’s jump right into the key plays and strategies to dominate the slate!

 

This season's MLB DFS picks and playbook will consist of a pitcher and hitter core players section with written analysis, player pool grid and core stacks section.

The core player section should be used as a starting point for all lineups, you may not be able to use all players in the same lineup, but those players should be the building blocks for you on a given night.

The player pool grid will feature both players from the core player section along with additional plays to help you build a complete lineup. The grid will be broken into top priced players, mid-priced players and value tier players.

The stacks section will bring you are favorite lineups stacks for the day and which players we would look to include in those stacks based on matchups and pricing.

Make sure you subscribe to the Fantasy Alarm YouTube channel so you never miss a show! Also, join the Fantasy Alarm Discord to get your DFS lineup questions answered by our MLB DFS team! Plus, as always, be sure to check in with our MLB DFS Tools, with the Daily MLB Projections, MLB DFS Rostership Projections, and our MLB DFS Lineup Generator when building those lineups today to help you decide which players you should be targeting.

 

MLB DFS Picks & MLB Playbook

MLB Weather: Wednesday, 10/1

Nothing of note.

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers

Let's get into today's core pitching plays for our DFS lineups

Core MLB DFS Pitchers

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

The Reds offense is better against righties than they are against lefties, so is it possible that they have more success against Yamamoto than they did against Snell? Sure, it's possible. What's the likelihood though? I'm not sure it's too high. The Reds' best chance in this game is to get to the Dodgers bullpen. We saw how shaky they've been all year.

Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees

Since the All-Star break, the Red Sox have struggled against left-handed pitching and we saw their lefty-hitting lineup against Max Fried in Game 1 on Tuesday. Fried shut them down. That doesn't mean it'll happen here with Rodon, but the numbers favor him repeating Fried's performance. Since the break, the Red Sox rank 26th in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against lefties.

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

The Tigers offense looks really bad. They just looked good enough in Game 1 because Tarik Skubal pitched and that mattered more than the offense. Since the break, Detroit is 28th in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against righties and the 26.2% K-rate they bolster is the second-highest mark in the league. Bibee is having the best stretch of his season since the start of September, notching a 1.3 ERA and 25.5% K-rate, which are season bests.

Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers

We've seen it throughout Casey Mize's career (when healthy) he struggles more with righties than he does with lefties. There is a chance we see 7+ lefties in the Guardians lineup tonday, too, becuase that's what they do. They trust their platoons. Mize's ERA is down and strikeouts are up against lefties and they hit far less home runs (.89 HR/9) than righties do (1.71 HR/9).

 

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Hitters

Let's check out today's core plays to build our lineups around.

Core MLB DFS Hitters

Dodgers Stack Make Reds Feel Littell

Home runs. That's what the Dodgers did in Game 1. That's what they've done all year. That's what Zack Littell does too. Littell allowed 36 bombs this year and here are the splits;

vs. LH - 16 HR, .196 ISO, .201 xISO, 43.1% FB

vs. RH - 20 HR, .206 ISO, .218 xISO, 39.5% FB

  • Shohei Ohtani - .378 ISO, .422 xISO, .438 wOBA, .463 xwOBA
  • Teoscar Hernandez - .205 ISO, .199 xISO, .314 wOBA, .329 xwOBA
  • Freddie Freeman - .201 ISO, .207 xISO, .372 wOBA, .366 xwOBA
  • Man Muncy - .247 ISO, .266 xISO, .396 wOBA, .398 xwOBA
  • Mookie Betts - .142 ISO, .161 xISO, .317 wOBA, .340 xwOBA
  • Tommy Edman - .122 ISO, .124 xISO, .278 wOBA, .325 xwOBA

Yankees Hit Home Runs at Times

The Yankees face elimination tonight and face a struggling pitcher in Brayan Bello. In September, Bello has a season-high 5.4 ERA, season-low K-rate of 14.3%, his BB rate is up over 10%.

The Yankees hit home runs and they hit them in bunches. They blasted the field and hit more home runs than anyone by a LOT this season. They'll have all their lefties in the lineup tonight with the righty Bello on the mound.

Bello was decent against lefties, but a lot of his expected numbers are actually much worse. Against lefties he posted a .132 ISO but a .160 xISO and his .305 wOBA was matched with a .345 xwOBA.

Cody Bellinger, Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm, Ryan McMahon, and possibly Austin Wells will be greeting him from that side of the dish. Those other two righties named Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, you may have heard of them, will come at Bello from the right side. They fit a stack too.

Padres Stack Intriguing

There is a reason the Cubs are going with an opener today ahead of Shota Imanaga. The home run ball has been his worst enemy. Since the All-Star break alone, Imanaga has allowed 20 (!!) home runs. He's allowed 10 in September!

Righties have done a bulk of the damage since the break as they've hit 17 HR, averaged 2.6 HR/9, .495 SLG%, and a 54.7% FB.

Lefties have a .292 AVG and 1.6 HR/9 since the ASB too, so they haven't been chop liver.

Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis, Xander Bogaerts are priority options. Ryan O'Hearn and Jackson Merrill are the top lefty options.

Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch & Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are scary and full stacking them are scary, but I'd consider a few options here. Dylan Cease will start the game and he's either really good or really bad and there's usually no in between. But if he's really good and the Padres bullpen comes in after him with a lead, it'll be hard for the Cubs offense to truly do much of anything, so you hope they can get to Cease.

That's where Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, and Ian Happ come in.

They're the Cubs' best power hitters and Cease can give up home runs. He allowed a .172 xISO to LHH and a .160 ISO to RHH. All three guys listed for the Cubs had an ISO better than .189 against RHP this year.

Kerry Carpenter & Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers

These two are the Tigers bash brothers. The two that offer the most upside from a power standpoint and from the left side of the plate, the side that has given Tanner Bibee the most issues this year. Carpenter and Greene both posted a .250 ISO or better against righties this season.

Bibee allowed a .173 ISO and .165 xISO to lefties this season and that's where you can get your Tigers in. From the left side. Carpenter is a risk to be pinch hit for however, so keep that in mind. 

Player Pool

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Stacks

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