MLB DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups & Stacks Today: Wednesday Playbook

Published: Jul 02, 2025
Welcome to the Fantasy Alarm MLB DFS Playbook for Thursday, July 2nd!Â
Let’s start the week on the right foot with some winning lineups today. We have an 8-game main slate in store for us this evening on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:07 PM ET. Today, we have plenty of talent on the diamond and many different ways to build your lineup. Our expert analysis is here to guide you through the top pitchers, value plays, and stackable offenses to target.
Whether chasing big GPP prizes or grinding cash games, we’ve got you covered with insights tailored to today’s matchups. Let’s jump right into the key plays and strategies to dominate the slate!
This season's MLB DFS picks and playbook will consist of a pitcher and hitter core players section with written analysis, player pool grid and core stacks section.
The core player section should be used as a starting point for all lineups, you may not be able to use all players in the same lineup, but those players should be the building blocks for you on a given night.
The player pool grid will feature both players from the core player section along with additional plays to help you build a complete lineup. The grid will be broken into top priced players, mid-priced players and value tier players.
The stacks section will bring you are favorite lineups stacks for the day and which players we would look to include in those stacks based on matchups and pricing.
Check out the MLB DFS Show to get an initial outlook on the day's MLB DFS slate to give you a good base for the start of your research each day!Â
Make sure you subscribe to the Fantasy Alarm YouTube channel so you never miss a show! Also, join the Fantasy Alarm Discord to get your DFS lineup questions answered by our MLB DFS team! Plus, as always, be sure to check in with our MLB DFS Tools, with the Daily MLB Projections, MLB DFS Rostership Projections, and our MLB DFS Lineup Generator when building those lineups today to help you decide which players you should be targeting.
MLB DFS Picks & MLB Playbook
MLB Weather: Wednesday, 7/2
All games today are trending towards playing without issue. Best weather on the board is arguably in Colorado where it's warm.
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Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers
Let's get into today's core pitching plays for our DFS lineups
Core MLB DFS Pitchers
Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers
Let's be honest; this isn't a great spot for Misiorowski because the Mets have been really good against righties. Since June 1st, the Mets are tied for second in OPS, 1st in ISO, and 2nd in wOBA against RHP. That being said, Misiorowski has allowed three total hits in three starts and has 20+ DKP in each outing. Obviously willing to get here.
Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
For what it's worth, the Rockies have been much, much better offensively lately. Since June 1st, they're 7th in ISO, 11th in OPS, and 13th in wOBA against right-handed pitching. But where things go wrong is the 27.8% K-rate against righty hurlers. Insert Hunter Brown and his massive strikeout and groundball rates and you have arguably the top pitcher of the slate, despite the park downgrade.
Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
Lets face facts – the Royals offense is BAD and have to once again, hit in Seattle and that is not exactly a hitters dream park. Since June 1st, the Royals are 26th or worse in OPS, wOBA and wRC+, and 22nd in ISO. Gilbert has missed a bunch of bats since returning from his elbow issue but hasn't been overall great. That being said, looking under the hood he's been quite unlucky in his last two outings. His price is SO cheap on DK for the type of pitcher he is.
Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs
Lefties against the Guardians until the end of time. Or at least until they inject some life into their roster. Since June 1st, nobody has more at-bats against lefties than the Guardians and they're 28th or WORSE in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ while striking out 23.6% of the time. Imanaga threw 77 pitches in his return and because it wasn't an arm injury and he had gone on a rehab, his pitches should elevate somewhere around 90 here.
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
32.5% is the number here. That's the White Sox strikeout rate against left-handed pitching since June 1st. They face Clayton Kershaw who's been fantastic lately. He's allowed 2 ER or less in four straight and six of seven starts and has double-figure fantasy points in five of his last six and four straight. Oh, by the way, Kershaw is 3 strikeouts away from 3,000 for his career. He's going to be jacked up for this outing and I really like the price.
Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels
I mean, the strikeouts have been insane lately for Yusei Kikuchi. He's been so legit. He has 31 Ks over his last three starts and has 20+ DKP in four straight outings. He faces a Braves offense ranking 19th or worse in OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and ISO against southpaws June 1st. They've struck out over 23% of the time, too, which has been Kikuchi's special. He's too cheap for how well he's pitched.
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Recommended MLB DFS Hitters
Let's check out today's core plays to build our lineups around.
Core MLB DFS Hitters
Astros in Coors Versus a Lefty
Update - Adding Shay Whitcomb into our player pool. Starting, hitting 8th today.
The Astros have a lot of really good numbers against left-handed pitching and faces off against Austin Gomber who has two good starts and one bad. But that said, there's a lot of BAD expected stuff under the hood as xISO against both lefties and righties are over .300. The Astros expected to play tonight aren't ALL roses and rainbows, however. There are things to like though;
- Cam Smith - 1.022 OPS, .366 ISO, .433 wOBA, .433 wRC+
- Victor Caratini (20 PAs) - 1.183 OPS, .556 ISO, .490 wOBA, .224 wRC+
- Cooper Hummel (14 PAs) - 1.262 OPS, .500 ISO, .523 wOBA, 248 wRC+
- Mauricio Dubon - .817 OPS, 194 ISO, .354 wOBA
- Yainer Diaz - .188 ISO, .329 wOBA, 112 wRC+
- Isaac Paredes - .225 ISO, .328 wOBA, 111 wRC+
Jose Altuve is struggling big time, but I'm interested in including him in a stack as well.
Dodgers face Opener + Sean Burke
I'm a huge fan of the Dodgers today as a primary pivot away from the Astros. Righties have a .471 SLG%, .194 ISO, .384 xISO, 5.05 xFIP .345 wOBA, 48% FB, and 36% HH rate. His lefties numbers aren't great, either, allowing a .173 ISO, .176 xISO, 4.89 xFIP, 45% FB, and 32.7% HH rate.
Here's the Dodgers numbers vs. right-handed hurlers:
- Shohei Ohtani; .394 ISO, .432 xISO, .439 wOBA, .471 xwOBA
- Freddie Freeman; .198 ISO, .227 xISO, .396 wOBA, .395 xwOBA
- Will Smith; .196 ISO, .219 ISO, .396 wOBA, .381 xwOBA
- Max Muncy; .232 ISO, .271 xISO, .404 wOBA, .406 xwOBA
- Teoscar Hernandez; .183 ISO, .204 xISO, .299 wOBA, .332 xwOBA
- Andy Pages; .237 ISO, .198 xISO, .370 wOBA, .349 xwOBA
- Michael Conforto; .141 ISO, .185 xISO, .276 wOBA, .344 xwOBA
There's a LOT to like, even with the White Sox going with an opener.
Brew Crew
The Brewers are quite interesting in Game 2 of their double-header as they face off against Blade Tidwell who hasn't pitched well during his short major league stint. He's pitched to a 10.13 ERA and his xERA is 5.87, xFIP of 6.5, and 5.99 SIERA. Lefties have a .188 ISO, .219 xISO, .494 wOBA, and .437 xwOBA while righties have a .125 ISO, .156 xISO, .392 wOBA, and .348 xwOBA against him.
There's a lot to like on the Milwaukee front vs. RHP (numbers since June 1st);
- Christian Yelich: 1.034 OPS, .254 ISO, .440 wOBA, 187 wRC+
- Isaac Collins: .875 OPS, .156 ISO, .388 wOBA, 151 wRC+
- Sal Frelick: .858 OPS, .378 wOBA, 144 wRC+
On the year:Â
- William Contreras: .138 ISO, .332 wOBA
- Brice Turang: .103 ISO, .154 xISO, .336 wOBA, .352 xwOBA
- Rhys Hoskins: .169 ISO, .178 xISO, .321 wOBA, .330 xwOBA
- Jake Bauers: .202 ISO, .280 xISO, .326 wOBA, .376 xwOBA
Power Rangers
There are only FIVE pitchers this season that have allowed more home runs than Tomoyuki Sugano. 11 of the 17 he's allowed have come against lefties and LHH are averaging 2.15 HR/9 off of him. Sugano's flyball rate against both splits are on the rise and so are the HR/FB ratios as well.
Starting our builds with some lefties, I like Corey Seager, Josh Smith, and Alejandro Osuna. Osuna actually has some surprisingly great underlying numbers vs. RHP. Love the value today.
Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia are two players streaking right now and I'd be OK getting to either/both. Both have great underlying numbers vs. RHP. Semien has a .130 ISO but .169 xISO and .299 wOBA but a .333 xwOBA while Garcia is at a .177 ISO but .221 xISO and .297 wOBA, but .334 xwOBA.
Mariners Break Noah Cameron's Good Luck Streak
Why might we be targeting a pitcher with a sub-3 ERA, you ask? He has a 4.39 xFIP, 4.56 SIERA, 42% FB rate, and no strikeouts to his game.
RH - 4.63 xFIP, .202 BABIP, .148 xISO, 42.6% FB
LH - .241 ISO, .239 xISO, .344 xwOBA, .186 BABIP, 39% FB
Cal Raleigh has a .441 ISO against lefties this year. That's pretty good. Julio Rodriguez has a solid .225 ISO against them himself. Randy Arozarena is on fire AND has a .230 xISO and .357 xwOBA against southpaws.
Reds? Reds.
Its looks as if the Boston Red Sox are going to roll Cooper Criswell for a bulk of the innings tonight and he's fully stretched out. He threw 87 pitches in a AAA start on 6/28.
Right-handed hitters hammered him last year and they're hammering him again this season even though it's a SMALL sample.
The Reds are top-10 in some categories against RHP like OPS & wOBA this season:
- Elly De La Cruz: .922 OPS, .249 ISO, .394 wOBA, 148 wRC+
- Jose Trevino: .863 OPS, .180 ISO, .371 wOBA, 133 wRC+
- TJ Friedl: .842 OPS, .371 wOBA, 133 wRC+
- Gavin Lux: .804 OPS, .356 wOBA, 123 wRC+
- Will Benson: .789 OPS, .216 ISO, .336 wOBA, 109 wrC+
- Austin Hays: .772 OPS, .228 ISO, .325 wOBA
Over the last month (since June 1st) Spencer Steer & Matt McLain are both .785 OPS or better as well. Their lineup is DEEP.
Player Pool
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Stacks
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Player News
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