Welcome to the Fantasy Alarm MLB DFS Playbook for Thursday, July 2nd! 

Let’s start the week on the right foot with some winning lineups today. We have an 8-game main slate in store for us this evening on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:07 PM ET. Today, we have plenty of talent on the diamond and many different ways to build your lineup. Our expert analysis is here to guide you through the top pitchers, value plays, and stackable offenses to target.

Whether chasing big GPP prizes or grinding cash games, we’ve got you covered with insights tailored to today’s matchups. Let’s jump right into the key plays and strategies to dominate the slate!

 

This season's MLB DFS picks and playbook will consist of a pitcher and hitter core players section with written analysis, player pool grid and core stacks section.

The core player section should be used as a starting point for all lineups, you may not be able to use all players in the same lineup, but those players should be the building blocks for you on a given night.

The player pool grid will feature both players from the core player section along with additional plays to help you build a complete lineup. The grid will be broken into top priced players, mid-priced players and value tier players.

The stacks section will bring you are favorite lineups stacks for the day and which players we would look to include in those stacks based on matchups and pricing.

Check out the MLB DFS Show to get an initial outlook on the day's MLB DFS slate to give you a good base for the start of your research each day! 

Make sure you subscribe to the Fantasy Alarm YouTube channel so you never miss a show! Also, join the Fantasy Alarm Discord to get your DFS lineup questions answered by our MLB DFS team! Plus, as always, be sure to check in with our MLB DFS Tools, with the Daily MLB Projections, MLB DFS Rostership Projections, and our MLB DFS Lineup Generator when building those lineups today to help you decide which players you should be targeting.

 

MLB DFS Picks & MLB Playbook

MLB Weather: Wednesday, 7/2

All games today are trending towards playing without issue. Best weather on the board is arguably in Colorado where it's warm.

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers

Let's get into today's core pitching plays for our DFS lineups

Core MLB DFS Pitchers

Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers

Let's be honest; this isn't a great spot for Misiorowski because the Mets have been really good against righties. Since June 1st, the Mets are tied for second in OPS, 1st in ISO, and 2nd in wOBA against RHP. That being said, Misiorowski has allowed three total hits in three starts and has 20+ DKP in each outing. Obviously willing to get here.

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

For what it's worth, the Rockies have been much, much better offensively lately. Since June 1st, they're 7th in ISO, 11th in OPS, and 13th in wOBA against right-handed pitching. But where things go wrong is the 27.8% K-rate against righty hurlers. Insert Hunter Brown and his massive strikeout and groundball rates and you have arguably the top pitcher of the slate, despite the park downgrade.

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

Lets face facts – the Royals offense is BAD and have to once again, hit in Seattle and that is not exactly a hitters dream park. Since June 1st, the Royals are 26th or worse in OPS, wOBA and wRC+, and 22nd in ISO. Gilbert has missed a bunch of bats since returning from his elbow issue but hasn't been overall great. That being said, looking under the hood he's been quite unlucky in his last two outings. His price is SO cheap on DK for the type of pitcher he is.

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs

Lefties against the Guardians until the end of time. Or at least until they inject some life into their roster. Since June 1st, nobody has more at-bats against lefties than the Guardians and they're 28th or WORSE in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ while striking out 23.6% of the time. Imanaga threw 77 pitches in his return and because it wasn't an arm injury and he had gone on a rehab, his pitches should elevate somewhere around 90 here.

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

32.5% is the number here. That's the White Sox strikeout rate against left-handed pitching since June 1st. They face Clayton Kershaw who's been fantastic lately. He's allowed 2 ER or less in four straight and six of seven starts and has double-figure fantasy points in five of his last six and four straight. Oh, by the way, Kershaw is 3 strikeouts away from 3,000 for his career. He's going to be jacked up for this outing and I really like the price.

Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels

I mean, the strikeouts have been insane lately for Yusei Kikuchi. He's been so legit. He has 31 Ks over his last three starts and has 20+ DKP in four straight outings. He faces a Braves offense ranking 19th or worse in OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and ISO against southpaws June 1st. They've struck out over 23% of the time, too, which has been Kikuchi's special. He's too cheap for how well he's pitched.

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Hitters

Let's check out today's core plays to build our lineups around.

Core MLB DFS Hitters

Astros in Coors Versus a Lefty

Update - Adding Shay Whitcomb into our player pool. Starting, hitting 8th today.

The Astros have a lot of really good numbers against left-handed pitching and faces off against Austin Gomber who has two good starts and one bad. But that said, there's a lot of BAD expected stuff under the hood as xISO against both lefties and righties are over .300. The Astros expected to play tonight aren't ALL roses and rainbows, however. There are things to like though;

Jose Altuve is struggling big time, but I'm interested in including him in a stack as well.

Dodgers face Opener + Sean Burke

I'm a huge fan of the Dodgers today as a primary pivot away from the Astros. Righties have a .471 SLG%, .194 ISO, .384 xISO, 5.05 xFIP .345 wOBA, 48% FB, and 36% HH rate. His lefties numbers aren't great, either, allowing a .173 ISO, .176 xISO, 4.89 xFIP, 45% FB, and 32.7% HH rate.

Here's the Dodgers numbers vs. right-handed hurlers:

There's a LOT to like, even with the White Sox going with an opener.

Brew Crew

The Brewers are quite interesting in Game 2 of their double-header as they face off against Blade Tidwell who hasn't pitched well during his short major league stint. He's pitched to a 10.13 ERA and his xERA is 5.87, xFIP of 6.5, and 5.99 SIERA. Lefties have a .188 ISO, .219 xISO, .494 wOBA, and .437 xwOBA while righties have a .125 ISO, .156 xISO, .392 wOBA, and .348 xwOBA against him.

There's a lot to like on the Milwaukee front vs. RHP (numbers since June 1st);

On the year: 

Power Rangers

There are only FIVE pitchers this season that have allowed more home runs than Tomoyuki Sugano. 11 of the 17 he's allowed have come against lefties and LHH are averaging 2.15 HR/9 off of him. Sugano's flyball rate against both splits are on the rise and so are the HR/FB ratios as well.

Starting our builds with some lefties, I like Corey Seager, Josh Smith, and Alejandro Osuna. Osuna actually has some surprisingly great underlying numbers vs. RHP. Love the value today.

Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia are two players streaking right now and I'd be OK getting to either/both. Both have great underlying numbers vs. RHP. Semien has a .130 ISO but .169 xISO and .299 wOBA but a .333 xwOBA while Garcia is at a .177 ISO but .221 xISO and .297 wOBA, but .334 xwOBA.

Mariners Break Noah Cameron's Good Luck Streak

Why might we be targeting a pitcher with a sub-3 ERA, you ask? He has a 4.39 xFIP, 4.56 SIERA, 42% FB rate, and no strikeouts to his game.

RH - 4.63 xFIP, .202 BABIP, .148 xISO, 42.6% FB

LH - .241 ISO, .239 xISO, .344 xwOBA, .186 BABIP, 39% FB

Cal Raleigh has a .441 ISO against lefties this year. That's pretty good. Julio Rodriguez has a solid .225 ISO against them himself. Randy Arozarena is on fire AND has a .230 xISO and .357 xwOBA against southpaws.

Reds? Reds.

Its looks as if the Boston Red Sox are going to roll Cooper Criswell for a bulk of the innings tonight and he's fully stretched out. He threw 87 pitches in a AAA start on 6/28.

Right-handed hitters hammered him last year and they're hammering him again this season even though it's a SMALL sample.

The Reds are top-10 in some categories against RHP like OPS & wOBA this season:

Over the last month (since June 1st) Spencer Steer & Matt McLain are both .785 OPS or better as well. Their lineup is DEEP.

Player Pool

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Stacks

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