MLB DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups & Stacks Today: May 10th, 2026

Welcome to Fantasy Alarm's MLB DFS picks and daily fantasy playbook for Sunday, May 10th. Our MLB DFS projections combine advanced pitching metrics, platoon splits, strikeout prop data, and ownership positioning to identify the sharpest plays on every slate. Whether you are targeting DFS projections, running lineups through our DFS optimizer, tracking ownership trends, or checking confirmed lineups, Fantasy Alarm has the tools to sharpen your edge. Today's nine-game main slate has a clear top structure: three elite strikeout arms, two primary stack environments in Philadelphia and Oakland, and a pair of contrarian plays in Houston and Cleveland that give GPP lineups meaningful ownership separation. This MLB DFS playbook covers every key position on DraftKings and FanDuel with our best MLB DFS picks for today.

• Slate: 9-Game Main  |  Lock Time: 1:35 PM ET, Sunday May 10, 2026
• Vegas Totals: ATH/BAL (highest-projected game), HOU/CIN (second-highest), PHI/COL (third, Citizens Bank Park), BOS/TB, NYY/MIL, LAA/TOR, SEA/CWS, TEX/CHC, CLE/MIN (mid-range environments).
• Highest K-Projections: Cristopher Sanchez (5.35 K), Gavin Williams (5.19 K), Jacob deGrom (4.88 K), Carlos Rodon (4.66 K), Jose Soriano (4.55 K).

MLB Weather Today, 5/10

• PHI/COL (Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia): Light rain possible in the later innings. Early innings expected to be clear. Unlikely to affect the primary PHI stack but monitor conditions at lock for deep-order bats.
• BOS/TB (Fenway Park, Boston): Light rain possible in the later innings. Same system as Philadelphia. No impact expected on early game action. Monitor through the lineup confirmation window.
• BAL/ATH (Camden Yards, Baltimore): Light rain possible in the later innings. Given this is the highest-projected game total on the slate, any late-inning weather delay carries elevated stakes. Track conditions closely before lock.
• HOU/CIN (Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati): No weather concerns at press time.
• NYY/MIL (Yankee Stadium, New York): No weather concerns at press time.
• LAA/TOR (Angel Stadium, Anaheim): No weather concerns at press time.
• SEA/CWS (T-Mobile Park, Seattle): Retractable roof. No weather impact.
• TEX/CHC (Globe Life Field, Arlington): Enclosed stadium. No weather impact.
• CLE/MIN (Progressive Field, Cleveland): No weather concerns at press time.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

MLB DFS Top Pitchers

Cristopher Sanchez (PHI)

Analysis: Sanchez carries a 2.38 ERA, 2.58 xFIP, 11.17 K/9, and a 1.34 WHIP. The ERA-xFIP gap is essentially zero, meaning the run prevention is real and sustained. COL vs LHP is one of the worst splits matchups on the slate: .236 AVG and a 30.3% strikeout rate. His strikeout prop is set at 7.5 (over +105 at Bovada), with the opponent K% vs LHP sitting at 30.3% against a personal K% of 28.7%. The sportsbook has this priced close to even, and the underlying data leans over. Our MLB DFS projections have him as the top SP on the slate. He is highly owned. The matchup and the metrics justify every penny.

Jacob deGrom (TEX)

Analysis: DeGrom sits at a 3.34 ERA, 3.08 xFIP, 11.23 K/9, and 1.01 WHIP. His strikeout prop is set at 6.5 (over +115 at BetMGM), a plus-money line with the opponent K% vs RHP sitting at 19.4%. His personal K% of 31.3% is the highest among any SP in today's MLB DFS picks. The downside: CHC carries a wRC+ of 116 vs RHP and they hit. This is a ceiling play, not a floor play. The plus-money over price is where both the prop and the DFS score live. Come at him with moderate roster share and a lineup built around the strikeout upside.

Gavin Williams (CLE)

Analysis: Williams has a 4.14 ERA and 3.24 xFIP, meaning the ERA is running above his sustainable level and regression is expected. His K/9 is 10.95 overall and his K% of 30.3% leads all SP options with a K-prop line. The over is set at 6.5 (-130 at ESPN Bet), and he has hit the over in 75% of his outings this season. The opponent K% vs RHP is 23.5%, a step below the market line. Highly owned, he is the second-most concentrated chalk SP on the slate, but the xFIP and over hit rate both validate the exposure. A core option in our MLB DFS projections for today.

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Carlos Rodon (NYY)

Analysis: Rodon faces MIL, which carries a wRC+ of 79 vs LHP, one of the worst marks in the league against that split. His K-prop is set at 4.5 (-131 at ReBet) with the opponent K% vs LHP at 20.8%. NYY as a team projects favorably here, giving Rodon a strong win probability backdrop. Moderately owned, he represents the best combination of win odds and volume upside among the mid-range SPs in today's MLB DFS lineup picks.

Davis Martin (CWS)

Analysis: Martin carries a 2.45 ERA and 3.18 xFIP with 8.80 K/9 and 1.02 WHIP. His K-prop is set at 4.5 (-125 at Bovada), and he has hit the over in 71% of his starts this season, carrying a value rating of +1.7. The opponent K% vs his dominant split sits at 24.5%, right in line with his 25.4% personal K%. Near-zero ownership at a salary that lets you load up in the bat slots. The win odds and K-prop both support him as the top value MLB DFS pick among SPs on this slate.

Luis Severino (ATH)

Analysis: Severino carries a 4.51 ERA and 4.42 xFIP with 8.93 K/9 and 1.48 WHIP. His K-prop is set at 4.5 (-153 at ReBet), and he has hit the over in 63% of his starts, with a value rating of +1.4 and an opponent K% vs RHP of 24.3%. The heavy price on the over reflects the market's confidence in his strikeout floor. BAL is not a soft lineup, but the ATH/BAL game is the highest-projected total on the slate and Severino's K rate in that environment gives him a consistent DFS floor. Low owned with a documented over hit rate.

Top Options For Strikeouts

The three top strikeout targets in today's MLB DFS projections each carry a K/9 above 10.9 and favorable opponent strikeout splits. K-prop lines and value ratings are incorporated below for DFS and prop context. These are the arms building the highest strikeout ceilings on the nine-game slate.

Our model identifies these arms as the highest-ceiling plays for Alt-K lines today:

• Logan Henderson: 36.7% K% (12.4 K/9)
• Payton Tolle: 34.3% K% (11.7 K/9)
• Jacob deGrom: 31.3% K% (11.2 K/9)
• Gavin Williams: 30.3% K% (10.9 K/9)
• Jose Soriano: 29.0% K% (10.4 K/9)
• Cristopher Sanchez: 28.7% K% (11.2 K/9)

Best Odds For A Win

The following MLB DFS picks offer a combination of favorable win odds, sustainable ERA and xFIP metrics, and soft opponent matchups. Each carry K-prop lines worth noting alongside their DFS value at reduced ownership relative to the top tier.

• Cristopher Sanchez: -155
• Gavin Williams: +119
• Logan Gilbert: +137
• Jose Soriano: +148

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Stacks & Hitters

MLB DFS Top Hitters

Yordan Alvarez (OF, HOU)

Analysis: Alvarez carries a .459 wOBA overall and .461 vs LHP. He faces Abbott, who has a 4.77 ERA, 4.74 xFIP, 1.64 WHIP, and a K% of just 15.4%. HOU as a team has a wRC+ of 111 vs LHP. Alvarez is now positioned as a contrarian option within today's MLB DFS picks as the field shifts toward PHI and ATH. The matchup has not changed. The ownership angle is cleaner.

Kyle Schwarber (OF, PHI)

Analysis: Schwarber carries a .389 wOBA overall and .413 vs RHP. PHI hosts COL at Citizens Bank Park against a pitcher with a 5.3 K/9 and 14.6% K%. Sugano is a contact-pitcher profile and Citizens Bank plays as a hitter-friendly environment. Schwarber is the power anchor in the PHI primary stack and one of the top MLB DFS picks on this slate. The combination of a favorable home park, a soft RHP, and his wOBA vs RHP makes him a cornerstone bat.

Nick Kurtz (1B, ATH)

Analysis: Kurtz has a .381 wOBA overall and .425 vs RHP. Bassitt carries a 5.16 ERA and 5.50 xFIP with a K-prop priced at +125, reflecting sportsbook skepticism about his ability to miss bats. ATH/BAL is the highest expected run total game on the slate. Kurtz is the most-owned ATH hitter in this game, and the MLB DFS projection justifies the concentration. Stack him with Cortes and Langeliers for full ATH game correlation.

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Travis Bazzana (2B, CLE)

Analysis: Bazzana is the salary-relief piece in the CLE contrarian stack at near-zero ownership. Morris has a K/9 of 8.3 and a K% of 20.5% with no public K-prop line, indicating limited market exposure to this matchup. At minimum salary for a CLE hitter in a game the field is largely ignoring, Bazzana represents the GPP differentiator that keeps the CLE stack affordable without compromising the SP slot. Low confidence play, stated upfront. The ownership is the edge.

Carlos Cortes (OF, ATH)

Analysis: Cortes carries a .434 wOBA overall and .410 vs RHP and is highly owned for the matchup. Same Bassitt matchup as Kurtz. Bassitt's 5.16 ERA and 5.50 xFIP make the entire ATH lineup viable, and Cortes gives you the wOBA production of a premium bat at a salary that allows aggressive SP spending. A core MLB DFS pick in the ATH primary stack and the value option that makes ATH correlation viable across multiple lineup slots.

Christian Walker (1B, HOU)

Analysis: Walker carries a .351 wOBA and .242 AVG vs LHP. Abbott has a 4.77 ERA, 4.74 xFIP, and a K% of just 15.4%. At low-to-moderate ownership, Walker gives you a third legitimate bat in the HOU contrarian stack without the name recognition of Alvarez or the name recognition that drives Altuve's ownership. He is the connector that makes the HOU stack structurally sound in any roster construction today.

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Primary Stack: Philadelphia Phillies vs Tomoyuki Sugano (COL RHP, PHI Home)

Why: Sugano is not going to miss bats. This is a great spot for the Phillies against a soft tossing RHP. Harper (.442 wOBA vs RHP), Schwarber (.413 vs RHP), Marsh (.393 vs RHP), and Stott give you four legitimate bat options throughout the lineup. PHI is the primary stack of the day in today's MLB DFS picks.

Primary Stack: Oakland Athletics vs Chris Bassitt (BAL RHP)

Why: Bassitt carries a 5.16 ERA and 5.50 xFIP. His K% of 12.8% means the field is not expecting strikeouts from him. ATH/BAL is the highest expected run total game on the slate. Cortes (.410 wOBA vs RHP), Kurtz (.425 vs RHP), and Langeliers (.426 vs RHP) anchor the build. The game environment and the pitcher profile both back the ATH side in today's MLB DFS lineup construction.

"Contrarian" Stack: Houston Astros vs Andrew Abbott (CIN LHP)

Why: Abbott is not a strikeout pitcher. HOU vs LHP has a wRC+ of 111 and a .430 SLG. Alvarez (.461 wOBA vs LHP), Walker (.351 vs LHP), and Altuve give you run production anchors in the second-highest game total environment. The field is prioritizing PHI and ATH today, making HOU the contrarian stack with a legitimate run floor.

"Contrarian" Stack: Cleveland Guardians vs Andrew Morris (MIN RHP)

Why: CLE hitters at low ownership in a mid-range game total is the leverage play. Ramirez (.305 wOBA vs RHP), DeLauter (.370 vs RHP), and Bazzana give you three playable CLE bats at a combined salary that does not compromise the SP build. Near-zero ownership on a stack in a game the field is ignoring entirely.

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters

The foundation for every MLB DFS lineup you build today. These are the core MLB DFS picks by position across DraftKings and FanDuel.

1. Cristopher Sanchez (SP1): 2.38 ERA. 2.58 xFIP. K-prop 7.5 (+105). COL vs LHP 30.3% K%. No notes. You play him.
2. Davis Martin (SP2): 2.45 ERA. 3.18 xFIP. K-prop 4.5 value +1.7. Over hit 71%. Near-zero ownership. Best value MLB DFS projection at SP.
3. Yordan Alvarez (Core Bat): wOBA .461 vs LHP. Abbott 4.74 xFIP, 15.4% K%. Best individual matchup on the board. Contrarian angle with clean ownership today.
4. Kyle Schwarber (Core Bat): .413 wOBA vs RHP at home vs a 14.6% K% pitcher. Power anchor in the PHI primary stack.
5. Nick Kurtz (Core Bat): .425 wOBA vs RHP. Bassitt 5.50 xFIP. ATH primary stack. Highest game total game.
6. Carlos Cortes (Core Value Bat): .410 wOBA vs RHP. Same Bassitt matchup as Kurtz at a lower price. The stack connector.
7. Christian Walker (Core Value Bat): .351 wOBA vs LHP. HOU contrarian stack anchor. Abbott 4.74 xFIP.
8. Travis Bazzana (Core Value Bat): CLE contrarian stack. Morris no K-prop line. Near-zero ownership. The GPP differentiator.

Player Pool

$ Tier	{{pos.alias}}

Stacks

{{stack.team.name}}	{{player.name}}
DraftKings	{{player.fantasy.price.value[8]}}-
Fanduel	{{player.fantasy.price.value[6]}}-