Welcome to Fantasy Alarm's MLB DFS picks and daily fantasy playbook for Wednesday, July 19th. Our MLB DFS projections combine advanced pitching metrics, platoon splits, strikeout prop data, and ownership positioning to identify the sharpest plays on every slate. Whether you are targeting DFS Projections, running lineups through our DFS Optimizer, tracking ownership trends, or checking confirmed lineups, Fantasy Alarm has the tools to sharpen your edge. 

Today's slates have multiple different directions with some elite pitchers in Chase Burns, Drew Rasmussen, Cade Cavalli, and Parker Messick all taking the mound. This MLB DFS playbook covers every key position on DraftKings and FanDuel with our best MLB DFS picks for today.

Slate: 9-Games | Lock Time: 6:35 pm ET, Wednesday, July 17th, 2026

Vegas Totals: LAD/COL (highest-projected game), NYY/BAL (second-highest game total), ATH/KC, STL/CIN & LAA/HOU (tied for third-highest game total)

Highest K-Projections: Logan Gilbert 6.5 O/U (-108), Chase Burns 6.5 O/U (+102), Parker Messick 6.5 O/U (+103), Cade Cavalli 5.5 O/U (-136)

MLB Weather Today, 8/19

Nothing of note that would cause an issue.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

MLB DFS Top Pitchers

Chase Burns (CIN) 

Analysis: The Cardinals enter this matchup struggling against right-handed pitching. Their 95 wRC+ against RHP ranks 26th in MLB, and their .695 OPS sits 25th. They consistently fail to generate hard contact or string together hits against upper-tier righties, giving Burns a massive floor. He's the pitcher with the highest K-rate on the slate.

Drew Rasmussen (TB)

Analysis: Toronto doesn't strike out a lot but they don't really hit against righties either. They have a 97 wRC+, .703 OPS but just a 19% K-rate. Rasmussen only threw 84 pitches in his last game, so that's always something to monitor when it comes to a Rays pitcher.

Parker Messick (CLE)

Analysis: The Giants are just an awful offense against lefties. They have an 85 wRC+ and .666 OPS, which both rank 28th in baseball. They don't walk at all against lefties & have a near 23% K-rate. Messick could be the best spend up on the board.

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Walbert Urena (LAA)

Analysis: Walbert Urena has been good the entire year, but he's been especially good since the All-Star break. He has four quality starts in his last five outings allowing 1 ER or fewer in all four of them. He's put up 21+ DKP in three of the four and 18.5+ in all four.

Cade Cavalli (WAS)

Analysis: I still don't understand the DK price. He's been elite basically all year long. Cavalli is coming off 8 IP, 1 H & 10 K performance and his second 40-bomb since June 30th. Cavalli faces a subpar Rangers offense that has a 99 wRC+ against righties this year.

Dustin May (MIL)

Analysis: The Brewers have changed Dustin May's pitch mix and he's throwing a cutter a LOT more than he did as a Cardinal. May has fired off two straight QS and has 19+ DKP in each. It's an elite matchup against the Mariners who are fully collapsing and are coming off a 22-0 loss last night.

Ethan Pecko (HOU)

Analysis: Pecko is the Astros fourth-ranked prospect and he hasn't pitched well at the minor league level but it is the PCL. He's a heavy ground baller and it's about a strikeout per inning. The Angels strike out more than everyone else than the Reds against right-handed hurlers.

Top Options For Strikeouts

K-prop lines and value ratings are incorporated below for DFS and prop context. These are the arms building the highest strikeout ceilings on the 9-game slate.

Our model identifies these arms as the highest-ceiling plays for Alt-K lines today:

Chase Burns: 28.7% K% (10.4 K/9)

Logan Gilbert: 26.6% K% (9.4 K/9)

Drew Rasmussen: 26.3% K% (9.3 K/9)

Cade Cavalli: 26.1% K% (9.9 K/9)

Parker Messick: 25.1% K% (9 K/9)

Best Odds For A Win

The following MLB DFS picks offer a combination of favorable win odds, sustainable ERA and xFIP metrics, and soft opponent matchups. Each carries K-prop lines worth noting alongside their DFS value at reduced ownership relative to the top tier.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Stacks & Hitters

MLB DFS Top Hitters

Shohei Ohtani (1B/OF, LAD), Andy Pages (OF, LAD) & Tommy Edman (2B, LAD)

Analysis: The Dodgers have 6.7 implied runs today and that's a slate high (duh). They look fantastic against lefty thrower Kyle Freeland whos allowed a .261 ISO to righties and only a .140 ISO to lefties but that doesn't mean we can't play Shohei Ohtani. All three of Ohtani, Pages, and Edman are .200 ISO or better guys vs. LHP.

Bobby Witt (SS, KC) & Jac Caglianone (1B/OF, KC)

Analysis: There are only two pitchers that have given up more home runs than Jeffrey Springs this year and they've each made three more starts than him. Both splits hit him hard and the two best Royals are rollin' right now. Cags has had a .200+ ISO in two straight seasons vs. LHP and Witt is all the way back.

CJ Abrams (SS, WAS)

Analysis: Kumar Rocker has had a lefty issue his entire career and he runs into the offense chock full of them, including CJ Abrams. Abrams has robust numbers against righties posting a .279 ISO and .406 wOBA.

Elly De La Cruz (SS, CIN) & Sal Stewart (1B, CIN)

Analysis: The Reds have had an overall tough season against righties but they've been a plus offense against lefties and it starts with De La Cruz and Stewart. De La Cruz has a .324 ISO and Stewart has a .213 ISO and .240 xISO.

Trent Grisham (OF, NYY)

Analysis: Over the last week, Grisham has four homers and a near .900 SLG% and gets a pitcher who struggles with left-handed bats. Grisham has a .209 ISO vs. RHP and Bassitt has nearly allowed a .200 ISO to them this year.

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Enrique Hernandez (1B/OF, LAD)

Analysis: The Dodgers are going to more than likely use Enrique Hernandez against a lefty and he's one of the two cheapest Dodgers in the lineup. He has multi-position eligibility and that's very appealing. In his 22 at-bats this year he has a .191 ISO vs. LHP.

Dane Myers (OF, CIN) & Eugenio Suarez (3B, CIN)

Analysis: This is a fun mini-stack or you can full stack the Reds top four because of how cheap Myers and Suarez are. Myers is hitting third and Suarez fourth. Myers has a .188 ISO and .362 wOBA vs. LHP while Suarez is slugging only; .208 ISO.

Abimelec Ortiz (1B, WAS)

Analysis: The crazy part about what Abi Ortiz is doing against righties is that it ALL looks real. All the numbers on the surface and under the hood. He has a robust .432 ISO and .461 wOBA. He has a great mathcup against a pitcher who struggles vs. lefties.

Salvador Perez (C/1B, KC)

Analysis: Perez has struggled this year but he has still posted a .172 ISO vs. LHP and Kaufmann Stadium has been one of the best parks in the league for offense. Plus the matchup against Springs is elite.

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Primary Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kyle Freeland (COL LHP)

Why: The Dodgers have 6.7 implied runs today and are simply the best stack of the day in Coors Field. Righties have crushed him this year posting a .261 ISO and .388 wOBA. Lefties have had as much success against Freeland but the Dodgers have some of the best lefty swingers on the planet.

Targets: Shohei Ohtani, Teoscar Hernandez, Andy Pages, Tommy Edman, Enrique Hernandez, Freddie Freeman

Primary Stack: Kansas City Royals vs Jeffrey Springs (ATH LHP)

Why: Only two pitchers in the league have allowed more home runs than Jeffrey Springs. Both splits have gotten to him this season as lefties have a .264 ISO and righties have a .238 ISO.

Targets: Bobby Witt, Salvador Perez, Jac Caglianone, Maikel Garcia, Nick Loftin, Vinnie Pasquantino

Primary Stack: Cincinnati Reds vs Matthew Liberatore (ATH RHP)

Why: The Reds hit lefties well and Matthew Liberatore has definitely had his struggles with both splits this season. The Reds top-four have really good numbers against southpaws and with Myers and Suarez price points they're very affordable. Both splits have a .345 wOBA or better against Liberatore this year.

Targets: Elly De La Cruz, Dane Myers, Eugenio Suarez, Sal Stewart, Tyler Stephenson

“Contrarian” Stack: Washington Nationals vs Kumar Rocker (TEX RHP)

Why: The Nationals are projected to throw six lefties at Kumar Rocker and that's the sweet spot for offenses against him. Lefties have a .201 ISO, .191 xISO, .372 wOBA, and .365 xwOBA against him this season and that's a repeat offense. He's always had that lefty issue.

Targets: Abimelec Ortiz, CJ Abrams, Daylen Lile, Keibert Ruiz, Nasim Nunez, Dylan Crews

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters & Pitchers

The "Chalk" (Popular)

The "Pivot" (Low

Owned)

The Winning Logic
Gilbert (SP, chalk)Cavalli (SP, lower owned)Why is Cade Cavalli half the ownership of Logan Gilbert when one team faces the Rangers and the higher owned SP faces Milwaukee.
Dodgers (Chalk)Royals (pivot stack)Home runs win GPPs and no pitcher on the slate serves it up as much as Jeffrey Springs. Royals are as healthy as they've been in months.
Rortvedt + Tucker (chalk)Caglianone + Perez (lower owned)Really like low-owned Royals to homer here. Springs struggles vs. both splits.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The foundation for every MLB DFS lineup you build today. These are the core MLB DFS picks by position across DraftKings and FanDuel.

  1. Parker Messick (SP1)
  2. Dustin May (SP2)
  3. Shohei Ohtani (Core Bat)
  4. Jac Caglianone (Core Bat)
  5. Tommy Edman (Core Bat) 
  6. Salvador Perez (Core Value Bat)
  7. Enrique Hernandez (Core Value Bat)

Player Pool

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Stacks

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