Happy Monday, May 4th. We have an 8-game MLB DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:05 pm ET.

We had the Mets and Rockies game moved and that made it an eight-game main slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. There are some elite pitchers toeing the rubber tonight as Cam Schlittler, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Jose Soriano take the mound. We don't have any elite ballparks, but we have a wind game in Wrigley Field and that's incredibly important here.

For updated MLB DFS projections, lineup generator, and ownership projections, visit FantasyAlarm.com.

⚡ THE SLATE DASHBOARD

Slate8-Game Slate on FD & DK | Lock: 7:05 PM ET
Top Game TotalsCIN/CHC (O/U - 11.5)  •  LAD/HOU (O/U - 9.0)  •  CKE/KC (O/U - 9.0)  •  BAL/NYY (O/U - 8.5)  •  MIL/STL (O/U - 8.5)
SP Ownership TierCam Schlittler (NYY, 35% DK)  •  Logan Gilbert (SEA, 32% DK)  •  Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD, 27% DK)  •  Jose Soriano (LAA, 27% DK)
Highest K-ProjectionsCam Schlittler (NYY, 6.5)  •  Jose Soriano (LAA, 6.5)  •  Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD, 6.5)  •  Logan Gilbert (SEA, 6.5)
WeatherCLE/KC - Wins blowing out & warm. A lot of rain and could cause delays/PPD - CIN/CHC - Monster winds blowing out & warm weather, but a LOT of rain forecasted. Delays/PPD possible - MIL/STL - Delay possible.

💎 PITCHING COACH

Top Tier

Cam Schlittler (NYY) | vs BAL

This is a fantastic spot for Cam Schlittler to continue to miss a bunch of bats. The Orioles have the third-highest K-rate at 24.4% against righties and Schlittler himself has a 31.4% K-rate. Baltimore is league average in basically all offensive categories this year while striking out a bunch.

Jose Soriano (LAA) | vs CWS

The White Sox got to Soriano last time out but I'm more than willing to go back to the well. Soriano's been one of the league's best pitchers this year and faces a White Sox offense striking out 24.1% of the time against righties. They're also 25th in OPS and wOBA and 24th in wRC+ vs. RHP.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) | vs HOU

The numbers are really, really down for Yamamoto this year, especially in the strikeout department. The thing is, his SwSt rate is the same as it's been, so the Ks should trend up. He's too cheap for his upside despite this being a tougher matchup.

Value Plays

Randy Vasquez (SD) | vs SF

I can't believe how little ownership Randy Vasquez is getting considering the matchup and ballpark he's pitching in. The Giants rank 28th or worse in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+. Vasquez is missing bats a career mark and despite the fact he's been a little bit lucky this year, he's pitching this game in an ELITE ballpark.

Davis Martin (CWS) | vs LAA

Nobody strikes out more than the Angels against right-handed pitching, which is why we're taking a look at Davis Martin. The Angels are also 18th in wRC+ against righties, so a below-average offense that strikes out a lot. Martin's changed his pitch mix and that's led to more strikeouts this season.

💎 HITTING COACH

Elite Bats

Aaron Judge (OF, NYY) | vs BAL 

Shane Baz has allowed a .197 ISO to righties this year and Aaron Judge defines power. He has a .333 ISO and .374 xISO along with a .422 wOBA and .439 xwOBA against righties. I think the Yankees are an interesting play today.

Elly De La Cruz  & Sal Stewart (SS/1B, CIN) | vs CHC

The wind is blowing out and this game has a massive implied total, more than two runs more than any other game on the board. De La Cruz has a .206 ISO and .354 wOBA while Stewart has a .243 ISO and .342 wOBA.

Jose Ramirez (3B, OF) | vs KC

Michael Wacha has been hammered in his last few starts and lefties have elite peripheral numbers against him. Lefties have a .148 ISO and a .239 xISO and .293 wOBA and .353 xwOBA. Ramirez has a .164 xISO and .364 xwOBA vs. RHP this year.

Cubs, All of 'Em | vs CIN

Chase Petty struggled horribly last year at Triple-A and when he was called up to make three starts he ended with a 19.5 ERA. Hard to ignore the Cubs today as I'd play almost any of them. Factor it in that the game has severe winds blowing out, they're the best offense on the board.

Chase DeLauter (OF, CLE) | vs KC

We love Chase DeLauter around these parts and like I mentioned above with Jose Ramirez, Michael Wacha has some bad under-the-hood numbers against lefties. DeLauter has a .266 ISO and .384 wOBA vs. RHP this year.

Value Bats (Salary Savers)

  • Trent Grisham (OF, NYY): Grisham has a .203 ISO, .261 xISO, .304 wOBA & .375 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this year.
  • Jac Caglianone (OF, KC): Lefties are getting to Tanner Bibee and Jac Cags has some really good looking numbers under the hood. He has a .147 ISO but a .177 xISO vs. RHP and his .350 wOBA and .349 xwOBA look really solid too.  
  • Travis Bazzana (2B, CLE):  Everything looks great for Travis Bazzana during this small sample and he's running, swiping two bags over his last two games.
  • Nathaniel Lowe (1B, CIN): Lowe is hammering RHP this year posting a .385 ISO and .289 xISO along with a .475 wOBA and .420 xwOBA.

🏗️ THE STACKING BLUEPRINT

Primary Stack: Chicago Cubs

Targets: Ian Happ, Moises Ballesteros, Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Dansby Swanson

Opponent: Cincinnati Reds | CHC 6.3 implied

All of them. Any of them. There are heavy winds blowing out of Wrigley Field and the games over/under has pushed all the way to 11.5 runs. The Cubs have 6.3 implied runs and that's a slate high. Righties killed Chase Petty at the minor and major league level last year. Plus the wind factors in big.

Primary Stack: Cincinnati Reds

Targets: Elly De La Cruz, Nathaniel Lowe, Sal Stewart, TJ Friedl, Matt McLain

Opponent: Chicago Cubs | CIN 5.0 implied 

Edward Cabrera is a good pitcher, but can he navigate severe winds? We'll see. Cabrera's 26.4% FB rate is the second-highest mark of his career, which is a little bit scary. All of the Reds 2-8 projected hitters have a .200 ISO or a .200 xISO this season.

Contrarian Stack: Cleveland Guardians

Targets: Chase DeLauter, Jose Ramirez, Travis Bazzana, Kyle Manzardo, Daniel Schneemann 

Opponent: Kansas City Royals | CLE 4.9 implied 

The Royals are sending Michael Wacha to the mound and he's struggled mightily against lefties. Lefties have a .148 ISO but a .239 xISO along with a .293 wOBA and .353 xwOBA. The Guardians can throw a LOT of lefties at Wacha tonight and they all have a lot of upside. We mentioned DeLauter, Ramirez, and Bazzana above, but Kyle Manzaro has a bunch of power and Daniel Schneemann has a .206 ISO and .362 wOBA vs. RHP.

Contrarian Stack: New York Yankees

Targets: Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham, Jazz Chisholm, Jasson Dominguez, Cody Bellinger, Ben Rice

Opponent: Baltimore Orioles | NYY 5.3 implied 

The Yankees upside is that they hit more home runs than everyone else. They have a boatload of lefties they can throw at Shane Baz and the best right-handed bat in the game. They have the second-highest implied total of the day.

📈 THE LEVERAGE REPORT (GAME THEORY)

The Chalk (Popular)

The Pivot (Low Owned)

The Winning Logic

Schlittler (highly owned)Martin (lower-owned)Martin's barely over 10% ownership and in the best strikeout matchup on the board.
Gilbert (highly owned)Vasquez (low-owned)Nobody's playing Randy Vasquez despite the Giants inability to hit baseballs as they rank 28th or worse in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+
CHC Chalk Stack (Happ, Bregman, Swanson, Hoerner all highly owned)CLE Stack (lower-owned)The Guardians are in a good matchup with nearly 5 implied runs and nobody cares.
CIN Chalk Stack (De La Cruz, Bleday, Friedl, Steer all getting ownership)NYY Stack (lower-owned)Home runs. That's the name of the game. The Yankees have the 2nd-highest implied total and they've hit the most HR in MLB this year.

🎯 HEART OF THE ORDER

The core pieces for every lineup you build today. Ownership drives the cash versus GPP label.

SP1Cam Schlittler (NYY)
Core BatIan Happ (CHC)
Core Bat Aaron Judge (NYY)
Core BatChase DeLauter (CLE)
Value CoreDavis Martin (CWS)
Value CoreMichael Busch (CHC) 
Value CoreMoises Ballesteros (CHC)

Player Pool

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Stacks

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