Welcome to Fantasy Alarm's MLB DFS picks and daily fantasy playbook for Friday, July 17th. Our MLB DFS projections combine advanced pitching metrics, platoon splits, strikeout prop data, and ownership positioning to identify the sharpest plays on every slate. Whether you are targeting DFS Projections, running lineups through our DFS Optimizer, tracking ownership trends, or checking confirmed lineups, Fantasy Alarm has the tools to sharpen your edge. 

Today's 14-game main slate on DraftKings and 13-game main slate on FanDuel have multiple different directions with both Coors Field and Sutter Health Field on the main slate. This MLB DFS playbook covers every key position on DraftKings and FanDuel with our best MLB DFS picks for today.

Slate: 14-Games on DK & 13-Games on FD | Lock Time: 7:05 pm ET, Friday, July 17th, 2026

Vegas Totals: CIN/COL (highest-projected game), MIN/CHC (second-highest game total), WAS/ATH (third-highest game total)

Highest K-Projections: Chris Sale 7.5 O/U (+116), Gavin Williams 7.5 O/U (+123), Reid Detmers 6.5 O/U (-125), Bryce Miller 5.5 O/U (-130)

MLB Weather Today, 7/17

Dodgers vs Yankees - There is awful air quality that could cause issues in this game. It's unclear what major league baseball is going to do.

Pirates vs Guardians - Another awful air quality issue spot.

Rangers vs Braves - There are a couple of storms that could cause a delay, but it's not overly concerning.

Twins vs Cubs - It's really hot with winds blowing out at the most wind-impacted stadium in baseball. Huge boost to bats.

Padres vs Royals - Hot and winds blowing out 5-10 MPH. Boost to offense.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

MLB DFS Top Pitchers

Chris Sale (ATL)

Analysis: Don't let the Rangers' overall offensive metrics against lefties scare you off. In DFS tournaments, you play for first place, and strikeouts are king. Sale’s 29% K-rate paired with Texas's 25.1% strikeout rate gives him slate-breaking upside at a fraction of the ownership he deserves.

Bryce Miller (SEA)

Analysis: Don't get cute trying to fade him in a pristine matchup. Between a microscopic 0.40 ERA at home and a ceiling fueled by the slate's second-highest strikeout rate, Bryce Miller is a cornerstone option for Friday's main slate. The ballpark is as good as it gets to pitch in.

Gavin Williams (CLE)

Analysis: This is interesting. The Pirates are number one in wRC+ against righties but Williams has a 7.5 O/U strikeout prop. Despite how good Pittsburgh has been, Williams has the second most ownership. I like him less and less.

Troy Melton (DET)

Analysis: Melton's strikeout consistency paired with the Angels' structural weakness against righties makes him a slam-dunk play. They have a 96 wRC+, ranking 21st in baseball against them. Utilizing him as a high-floor SP2 allows you to pay up for high-priced offenses with Coors Field and Sutter Health on the docket.

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Reid Detmers (LAA)

Analysis: Reid Detmers offers top-of-the-slate strikeout potential without the top-of-the-slate price tag. With Vegas backing a heavy strikeout performance against a thoroughly average Tigers lineup, he is an outstanding SP2 option to help you gain leverage in tournaments. Detmers comes into this game struggling, but we're in it to win a tournament and he provides tournament winning upside.

Jared Jones (PIT)

Analysis: Do not let prior bad luck steer you away. Jones' underlying 3.43 xFIP, 3.52 SIERA, and his recent flawless six-inning performance show that his ceiling is as high as anyone's on the slate (per dollar). Play him with high confidence as a strong SP2 in cash games, or use him to gain critical leverage in GPP tournaments.

Cade Cavalli (WAS)

Analysis: Cavalli is getting no ownership and while I understand it, Cavalli's DraftKings price is criminal considering how good the pitcher is. While Detmers and Jones are getting all of the ownership here in the value range, Cavalli is a nice pivot in GPPs. GPP only play for sure.

Top Options For Strikeouts

K-prop lines and value ratings are incorporated below for DFS and prop context. These are the arms building the highest strikeout ceilings on the 9-game slate.

Our model identifies these arms as the highest-ceiling plays for Alt-K lines today:

Logan Henderson: 30.6% K% (10.8 K/9)

Bryce Miller: 30.2% K% (10.1 K.9)

Gavin Williams: 29.1% K% (10.6 K/9)

Chris Sale: 29% K% (10.7 K/9)

Reid Detmers: 27.2% K% (10.2 K/9)

Jared Jones: 27.1% K% (10 K/9)

Cade Cavalli: 25.4% K% (10 K/9) 

Best Odds For A Win

The following MLB DFS picks offer a combination of favorable win odds, sustainable ERA and xFIP metrics, and soft opponent matchups. Each carries K-prop lines worth noting alongside their DFS value at reduced ownership relative to the top tier.

• Troy Melton +141
• Bryce Miller +144
• Michael King +155
• Dean Kremer +165

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Stacks & Hitters

MLB DFS Top Hitters

Ben Rice (1B, NYY) 

Analysis: In his final 10 games before the All-Star break, Ben Rice hit six bombs, drove in 14 runs, and slashed .361/.465/.917. Roki Sasaki has had a home run problem and lefties have posted a .213 ISO and .337 wOBA.

Elly De La Cruz (SS, CIN) & JJ Bleday (OF, CIN)

Analysis: Two of the Reds top three hitters against right-handed pitching are De La Cruz and Bleday. De La Cruz has a .163 ISO, .203 xISO, .328 wOBA, and .359 xwOBA against righties while Bleday has a .266 ISO and .376 wOBA against them.

Matt Olson (1B, ATL),  Michael Harris (OF, ATL) & Drake Baldwin (C, ATL)

Analysis: Cal Quantrill, by the numbers, has been incredibly lucky this year and the luck could run out against the Braves here. He's allowed a .165 ISO but a .252 xISO, .345 wOBA, and .372 xwOBA to lefties. LHH have a 57% FB rate and 6.04 xFIP. I LOVE a three-man lefty stack with these three Bravos.

Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF, CHC)

Analysis: Lefty power is destroying Bailey Ober and there's wind blowing out to boot. Lefties have over 2 HR/9 vs. Ober and PCA has a .278 ISO and .399 wOBA against righties this year.

Manny Machado (3B, SD)

Analysis: There's really elite hitting weather and Manny Machado has been hitting home runs in bulk. It's a fantastic reverse splits matchup too as Seth Lugo has allowed a .230 ISO and .238 xISO.

JJ Wetherholt (2B, STL) & Alec Burleson (1B, STL)

Analysis: Lefties have crushed Merrill Kelly all year long to the tune of a .261 ISO, .307 xISO, .381 wOBA, and .425 xwOBA. The Cards best two lefties are Wetherholt and Burleson and they hit righties hard.

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Kazuma Okamoto (3B, TOR) & Ernie Clement (2B/SS, TOR)

Analysis: Ernie Clement just dominates left-handed pitching and has done so for two years now. Kaz Okamoto is simply too cheap for his ceiling and gets a matchup against a pitcher who struggles against righties.

Michael Busch (1B, CHC) & Michael Conforto (OF, CHC)

Analysis: The Cubs are going to throw a bunch of lefties at Bailey Ober and that's a plus. He stinks against them. Busch has a .159 ISO, .178 xISO while Conforto currently has a .207 ISO against righties.

Royce Lewis & Josh Bell (1B, MIN)

Analysis: Not one person even cares that the Twins are playing in a wind game against a pitcher who serves up home runs. They profile better on FanDuel because you can play both, but I love the cheap Twins. They have big-time home run appeal.

Nathaniel Lowe (1B, CIN) & Noelvi Marte (OF, CIN)

Analysis: There are some pretty cheap Reds today including Nathaniel Lowe and Noelvi Marte (if in the lineup). Lowe has done all of his damage against righties this year posting a .239 ISO and .372 wOBA. Marte is just a high upside player because of his power/speed combination.

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Primary Stack: Chicago Cubs vs Bailey Ober (MIN RHP)

Why: The Cubs are significantly under-owned and one of my favorite stacks of the day, if not my number one stack of the day. It's hot and there are winds blowing out at 10 MPH. Lefties have crushed Ober (2 HR/9, .272 ISO, .331 wOBA) but in a wind game, both splits stand out.

Targets: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Ian Happ, Michael Conforto, Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson

Primary Stack: Cincinnati Reds vs Gabriel Hughes (COL RHP)

Why: The Reds drawing a boatload of ownership is not surprising considering they're in Coors Field today. They don't have great team numbers against righties, but they get a huge boost playing in Coors.

Targets: Elly De La Cruz, JJ Bleday, Sal Stewart, Nathaniel Lowe, Eugenio Suarez, Noelvi Marte

Primary Stack: Atlanta Braves vs Cal Quantrill (ATL RHP)

Why: Cal Quantrill has been good but the underlying numbers look bad especially against lefties. Lefties have a .165 ISO but .252 xISO, .345 wOBA and .372 xwOBA suggest he's going to get hit sooner rather than later.

Targets: Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Michael Harris, Ozzie Albies, Dominic Smith, Jim Jarvis

“Contrarian” Stack: Minnesota Twins vs Colin Rea (CHC RHP)

Why: Colin Rea has been pretty bad against both splits this year and now has to navigate a wind game. Lefties have a .368 wOBA against him this year and righties have a .213 ISO and .354 xISO. Righties really lift the ball against Rea and that's what you want here.

Targets: Royce Lewis, Luke Keaschall, Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach, Josh Bell, Kody Clemens

"Contrarian" Stack: Colorado Rockies vs Brady Singer (CIN RHP)

Why: Although Brady Singer's been better, nothing has really changed in terms of pitch mix and now he has to navigate Coors Field. The Rockies are relatively cheap outside of Hunter Goodman and both splits are posting north of .200 ISOs.

Targets: TJ Rumfield, Hunter Goodman, Mickey Moniak, Cole Carrigg, Jake McCarthy, Kyle Karros

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters & Pitchers

The foundation for every MLB DFS lineup you build today. These are the core MLB DFS picks by position across DraftKings and FanDuel.

1. Chris Sale (SP1)
2. Troy Melton (SP2)
3. Pete Crow-Armstrong (Core Bat)
4. JJ Bleday (Core Bat)
5. Manny Machado (Core Bat) 
6. Michael Busch (Core Value Bat)
7. Ernie Clement (Core Value Bat)

Player Pool

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Stacks

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