NFL DFS Strategy: Managing Prices

Here’s hoping you have a relaxing, satisfying, enjoyable...and profitable Thanksgiving. With the latter in mind, if your agenda is to be disciplined and grind out a positive return on investment then regardless of how you fared on Thursday, stay the course. If you had a strong day, stick with your typical bankroll management. If you had a poor day, don’t try to make up for it by risking more than usual. This example seems so obvious, but it really drives home the point. It was relayed at the DFS Players Conference a couple weeks ago. You can have positive return on investment 90 percent of the time you play but if your system is to risk everything each week, every 10th week you’ll be down to nothing. An oversimplification for sure, but it does drive home the need for discipline.

OK, onto the main slate of Week 12. Maybe I’m wrong, but after crunching the wisdom-of-the-crowd numbers, I can’t remember a week where both FanDuel and DraftKings had such sharp pricing. By sharp pricing, I mean the delta between industry’s expectations and the sites’ salaries is as tight as I can recall. There are a few different ways one can account for this. My feeling is to pay a premium for reliability, even more so than normal. This likely requires spending at the top which in turn will result in needing to find some cheap plays.

Looking at both FanDuel’s and DraftKings’ strong cash plays, the two areas that stand out as targets to conserve salary are the second running back and tight end. There’s a bunch of replacement running backs filling in for the plethora of injuries last week. Granted, some of these will be chalk plays just based on the price, but that’s OK in cash games. Especially on DraftKings, there’s a nice selection of tight ends not nicknamed Gronk. These are the main areas I’ll look to save salary so I can fit in the top reliable running backs and wide receivers.

The third spot, if necessary, is quarterback. I usually end up with one of the highest-priced signal callers but this weekend, I’m looking in the mid-range. Some of this is guys like Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton are off the board, but it’s also matchup driven. Tom Brady was the top-ranked quarterback using industry expectations but I just can’t pony up the coin for a road tilt in Denver when he’s devoid of so many weapons. If I’m paying full boat, it’s Carson Palmer with the softer opponent and full complement of receivers.

As always, the names listed below are a jumping off point. With the pricing being so sharp, it is even more incumbent to use the array of tools in the DFS Pro Playbook to identify the most reliable plays.

KEY:

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR FANDUEL CASH GAMES

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR DRAFTKINGS CASH GAMES