DFS NFL QB Coach: Week 7

Ray Flowers takes a twirl around the NFL looking at quarterbacks from all angles as we start thinking about putting our lineups together for Week 7.

* Rankings - #1 best for QBs, #30 worst for QBs.

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DVOA – Football Outsiders Defense adjusted Value Over Average.
* Pts allowed on Fanduel
** Opp Pass Rank is pass defense    
*** Opp Rank is Oppositions overall defensive rank
*****Pace - Seconds per play, the lower the number, the more plays run.

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• RZ Patt Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 20 yard line)
• RZ P<15 Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 15 yard line)
• RZ P<10 Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 10 yard line)
• RZ P<5 Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 5 yard line)
• RZ Ru Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 20 yard line)
• RZ Ru<15 Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 15 yard line)
• RZ Ru<10 Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 10 yard line)
• RZ Ru<5 Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 5 yard line)
• RZ Tar Red Zone Targets (inside the 20 yard line)
• RZ Tar<15 Red Zone Targets (inside the 15 yard line)
• RZ Tar<10 Red Zone Targets (inside the 10 yard line)
• RZ Tar<5 Red Zone Targets (inside the 5 yard line)
• RZ Rec Red Zone Receptions (inside the 20 yard line)
• RZ Rec<15 Red Zone Receptions (inside the 15 yard line)
• RZ Rec<10 Red Zone Receptions (inside the 10 yard line)
• RZ Rec<5 Red Zone Receptions (inside the 5 yard line)

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ELITE OPTIONS

Tom Brady is as good as ever. Brady completed 29-of-32 passes last week if you remove to throwaways and a pass that he was hit as he released it. Even when under pressure he still went 6-for-9 for 131 yards. He has the most points per drop back of any quarterback in football. Nothing rattles him.

Andrew Luck hit 15-of-16 passes on the 23 drop backs when he wasn’t blitzed last week. It’s that simple. If he gets a clean pocket he picks apart defenses. Unfortunately, the o-line doesn’t always set him up for success (he was just 6-for-16 when blitzed) and Luck has been sacked 23 times, more than any other quarterback. Luck is also third in football in average time to release (Taylor, Rodgers), so he’s doing his best to work around the pressure waiting for plays to develop.

Matt Ryan threw 42 passes on 46 dropbacks against the mighty Seahawks in Seattle. He played extremely well in the matchup with 335 yards and three scores. Tremendous work actually. Play action continues to lead to lots of Ryan success. Ryan has averaged 9.9 yards per attempt. He has never had a mark over 7.7 before.

Philip Rivers is second in football with an 8.30 yards per attempt mark. He’s tossed 12 scores and been picked off three times. He’s just 12^th in football in yards in the air without drops. His wideouts are helping him out a good deal. The Falcons rank 18^th in pass coverage according to PFF.

Matthew Stafford threw 31 passes in Week 6 with only five in the air for more than 10-yards. All five of those were incomplete. He was sharp though hitting 93 percent of his adjusted passes (removing throw aways, drops and a batted down pass). Stafford leads the league with 164 yards of dropped passes and he also leads the league with an 80.7 percent accuracy rate (completion percentage while removing drops, throwaways and spikes).

SOLID PLAYS

David Carr threw a pick last week, another was dropped, and he fumbled twice last week against the Chiefs. Carr does lead the league with a 59.6 completion percentage while under pressure so he’s handling players in his face fairly well marking last week’s effort as an outlier.

Drew Brees completed 34-of-49 passes for 465 yards and four scores last week. He threw six passes in which they were thrown away, spiked or hit as he threw. He also had four drops. That means he was 34-for-39 on the other 39 attempts.

Aaron Rodgers looks terrible. He won’t step into throws. He’s sitting on his back foot and sailing passes all over the field. His ball placement is terrible. He fumbled last week and threw a terrible pick. He is tied with Blake Bortles as the least accurate QB on passes over 20-yards. For more see this hot takes article: Aaron Rodgers Stinks.

Blake Bortles tore up the Bears going 9-for-13 for 162 yards and a score on intermediation throws. Note that his pick last week should have been a score as Allen Robinson dropped the pass (Allen Hurns dropped two passes too). Oakland ranked 20^th in pass coverage and 24^th in overall defense according to PFF.

Jameis Winston takes on a Niners team that isn’t very good that is ranked 8^th from the bottom according to PFF in defense. Winston leads the league with a 68.1 percent mark of the yards he’s produced coming in the air.

Kirk Cousins threw for 263 yards and two scores last week. If DeSean Jackson hadn’t dropped a ball right in his hands it would have been a 295/3 line. Still, he completed less than 53 percent of his passes last week and made another terrible decision leading to a pick-off. The Lions just got lit up by Case Keenum though. What else do you need to know?

Marcus Mariota handled the blitz with aplomb going 6-for-8 for 138 yards and two scores when blitzed last week. One of those two incompletions was an interception (see this link for a breakdown of Mariota). Mariota has run for 124 yards the last two weeks with a score on 14 attempts. The yards are a league best for a QB. The Colts are a bad club against the pass as well.

Russell Wilson was just 3-for-10 under pressure last week. Not his fault as his pass catchers dropped four of those seven incompletions. Wilson is second in football with a 139.9 QB Rating on play action. He takes on a Cardinals team that is ranked 3^rd in defense according to PFF so it is not an easy matchup.

Andy Dalton threw just one score last week but he wasn’t picked. Note though that he had a rushing score. Don’t overlook that. He’s also only been picked off two times and 58 percent of his completed passes have gone 20 or more yards downfield flashing quick strike abilities. It’s the 4^th best mark in the league by the way.

Eli Manning got the ball to Odell Beckham (see the Video) and success followed. Pretty simple really.

Brian Hoyer has thrown for 300 yards and no picks in 4-straight games. Rather remarkable really. However, he’s still struggling to get the ball downfield. Hoyer was just 5-for-13 on throws over 10-yards last week for 79 yards (short passes: 23-for-35 for 233 yards). He also had a 54.6 QB Rating on the 11 passes he made under duress, but when given time he excels. Hoyer has a 114.7 QB Rating on plays in which he releases the ball after 2.6 seconds.

Tyrod Taylor ran the ball eight times for 68 yards against the Niners, a second game of 65-yards in four outings on the ground. He’s on pace to run for more than 650 yards this season which helps him despite large passing numbers. He threw for just 179 yards but he also hit two scores and has now gone 3-straight without a pick, even if he’s failed to thrown for 180 yards in 4-of-6 games this season.

RISKY PLAYS

Colin Kaepernick was under pressure on 15 of his 36 dropbacks last week. When pressured Colin hit 4-of-11 passes for all of 43 yards as he took three sacks. The Bills are a rapidly improving defense, but the Niners need to do better. The Bucs ranked 3^rd from the bottom in overall defense according to PFF and 4^th from the bottom in pass rush, but that offense in SF is still spotty.  

Alex Smith completed 19-of-22 passes as he surgically shredded the Raiders last week. Note that the passes went an average of 6.8 yards per attempt. The Saints get blasted for 302 yards a week through the air and have only picked off two passes.

Joe Flacco is facing off with a Jets team that is repeatedly burned through the air. He also leads the league with 279 drop backs and 264 pass attempts. He’s only thrown for five scores but the Jets have been thrashed for 13 passing scores, a 71 percent completion rate, and have picked off just two passes.

Carson Palmer is first in the league in depth per aimed throw at 10.8. However, he also injured his hamstring last outing, though the expectations is that he will still play. The Seahawks are second in overall defense according to PFF.

Sam Bradford is second in football in completion percentage per aimed throw (76.5 percent). Still, he hasn’t thrown for 290 yards yet, and has just six touchdown passed in four games. He also is averaging just 31 pass attempts a contest.

QUARTERBACKS TO AVOID

Trevor Siemian is not completing deep passes. In Week 6 he completed just 1-of-9 passes that were in the air for at least 10-yards. He has two scores his last two games and faces Houston that is 10^th in pass coverage and 3^rd in pass rush according to PFF.

Ryan Tannehill hit 24-of-31 aimed throws for 252 yards in Week 6 (no scores, no picks). Twenty four of the 31 passes were 10-yards or less as the plan was to get the ball out quick. Unlike in the past, the o-line performed well as Tannehill was under pressure on a mere five of 32 dropbacks. The Bills are second in the league in sacks and Tannehill is 10^th in the league in completion percentage while under pressure.

Carson Wentz was under pressure 48 percent of the time in Week 6, double the 24.3 percent mark he entered the game at. He finished the game going 11-for-22 for 179 yards as he was sacked five times. Wentz has failed to throw for 24-yards in 3-of-4 games and has just five touchdown passed over his last four games. He takes on Minnesota in a rough matchup.

Case Keenum hit 18-straight passes at one point and he had an adjusted completion rate of 90 percent in the strong, statistical outing. He’s still not good, the offense isn’t explosive, and his 8.2 percent dropped rate of passes is the worst in football.

Brock Osweiler was bad last week. He did complete 14-of-16 passed to end the game as he looked much better late. On the seven drop backs last week when he was under pressure he was 1-for-6 for 12 yards. At least he tries for the big hitter as his 14.5 percent deep pass rate is third in football. Alas, he’s only completed 8-of-33 attempts though there have been four drops thrown in the mix. Also note that Osweiler is 26^th in the league in completion percentage while under pressure, and he faces Denver who leads the league in sacks.