DFS NFL QB Coach: Week 13

Which players should you be turning to, and away from, at the quarterback position? Ray Flowers breaks down all 30 teams signal callers for Week 13 of the NFL season.

* Rankings - #1 best for QBs, #33 worst for QB in Week 13.
* PA - Percentage of plays run that were passes.

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• RZ Patt Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 20 yard line)
• RZ P<15 Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 15 yard line)
• RZ P<10 Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 10 yard line)
• RZ P<5 Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 5 yard line)
• RZ Ru Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 20 yard line)
• RZ Ru<15 Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 15 yard line)
• RZ Ru<10 Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 10 yard line)
• RZ Ru<5 Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 5 yard line)
• RZ Tar Red Zone Targets (inside the 20 yard line)
• RZ Tar<15 Red Zone Targets (inside the 15 yard line)
• RZ Tar<10 Red Zone Targets (inside the 10 yard line)
• RZ Tar<5 Red Zone Targets (inside the 5 yard line)
• RZ Rec Red Zone Receptions (inside the 20 yard line)
• RZ Rec<15 Red Zone Receptions (inside the 15 yard line)
• RZ Rec<10 Red Zone Receptions (inside the 10 yard line)
• RZ Rec<5 Red Zone Receptions (inside the 5 yard line)

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*NOTE: Note all quarterbacks have a writeup below. That doesn't mean that only the below options fit in each category. Check the graph below to see where the others rank.

ELITE OPTIONS

Drew Brees scored five times last week (four passing). He’s already at 30 scores and is on pace to blow past 5,000 yards. Always the same, elite option, and he is at home this week. 

Ben Roethlisberger’s only tossed three scores in his last two games and hasn’t looked great by any means with just 388 passing yards in total since returning from injury, and the Giants have also allowed just 10 passing scores, the second best in football, so the matchup ain’t an easy one. Roethlisberger is a completely different animal at home. In four games this season at home he’s averaged 337 yards and 3.75 passing scores. Nutso good.

SOLID PLAYS

Matthew Stafford isn’t making mistakes with one interception in seven games, remarkable for a guy who has thrown 98 picks in 93 career games entering the season. He takes on the Saints who are a mid-level D against passers, but they have only picked off seven passes all season. The dink and dunk approach the Lions have been deploying isn’t necessitated by the matchup as the Saints are just 14^th in pass rush (PFF).

Matt Ryan has a 117.2 QB Rating at home as he’s averaged 333 passing yards and 2.4 touchdown passes in five such games. The Chiefs rank 9^th in defense according to PFF, and they just added back their best defender in Justin Houston who wrecked havoc on the Broncos is Week 12 with 10 tackles, a defensed pass, a forced fumble and three sacks.

Derek Carr injured his pinkie last week and it sounds like he has two dislocations in the finger on his throwing hand. He performed admirably last week with 315 yards and two scores, and he should be able to play through the injury given that fact. He’s up against the Bills who are second with 32 sacks, and the Bills have allowed just 13 passing scores in 11 games.

Russell Wilson was crushed by pressure last week as his moderate line was overrun by the Bucs. According to PFF the Bucs are the 22^nd best pass rush. How will things fare this week against the Panthers who rank 8^th? Wilson has one passing score in two games and over the last three he’s completing just 59.4 percent of his passes.

Colin Kaepernick has thrown five scores the last two weeks and four times in six outings he’s run for at least 55 yards (last week he went for 113 yards). Only once in three games has he thrown for 215 yards, but he’s only thrown three picks overall. The Bears are a moderate defense that has generated a mere five picks this season including just one in four games. They have allowed 233 passing yards the last four games.

Tyrod Taylor seemingly has a healthy Sammy Watkins back in the fold. Same time, Tyrod has just two passing scores in four games and three in five. It’s all about his legs at this point as he’s scored on the ground in 4/5 outings. He’s also run for at least 35-yards the last six outings and is averaging 39.9 yards a game on the ground.

Eli Manning has thrown 12 passing scores in four games, an average of three a game. Same time, he’s thrown for an average of just 223 yards the last five games and has been over 240 yards just once in that time. The Steelers allow 264 a week in the air, but, they have permitted just 13 scores in 11 games. The game is also in Pittsburgh and Eli has only seven scores while averaging 211 passing yards in five road starts.

Cam Newton has five passing scores in five games. He’s failed to reach 247 passing yards 4-out-of-5 games. He’s completed just 14 passes in 3-of-5 outings. He goes to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. Seattle has allowed less passing scores than games – 10 in 11 – and their total of 31 sacks is fourth. They have the third best defense in football according to PFF and they allow 18.4 points a game at home.

Dak Prescott has only had two negative games this season, a remarkable thing for a rookie. When blizted this season he still has a 120.4 QB Rating so he should be able to take advantage of the Vikings 11^th ranked pass rush (PFF). In ¾ games the Vikings have allowed less than 220 net passing yards and they hold passers to a 57.9 completion rating and have allowed just 13 touchdown passes.

Kirk Cousins has thrown for two scores in 4-straight. He has thrown for 375 yards in ¾ outings and 300 in 4/5 games. He faces the Cardinals who are second in the NFL in yards allowed a game (195.1) and they have also permitted a league low nine passing scores while creating 29 sacks with the fourth best pass rush in football according to PFF. #TouchMatchup

RISKY PLAYS

Jameis Winston is averaging 269 yards and two scores a game on the road. His last three overall those numbers are 288 and 1.67. He has turned the ball over 15 times in 11 games (four fumbles) as well. He takes on the Chargers who have picked off 14 passes while allowing more than 271 passing yards a game, a bottom eight number.

Trevor Siemian has had success on the road with 10 scores in five games, and he does have seven scores in three games overall. Don’t be swayed by the 368/3 line last week. He’s not doing that again against the Jags who are top-10 in holding down QBs in fantasy including allowing a mere 204 passing yards a game, third fewest in football.

Andy Dalton doesn’t have Gio Bernard and it seems unlikely that A.J. Green will be playing this week. That crushes the upside with Dalton. In each of his last four he’s thrown one touchdown pass. Moreover, in 11 games this season it’s been at zero/one touchdown passes in nine outings. Under 210 passing yards in 2.3 as well, and the Eagles are second in pass rush according to PFF.

Carson Palmer has been picked in 4-straight while tossing six overall turkey’s (he’s also lost two fumbles). The matchup is a good one, the ‘Skins aren’t very good at all, and they rank 19^th in pass rush according to PFF, and that’s been the biggest issue for Palmer (facing heat he ranks 23^rd in QB Rating at 56.7).

Blake Bortles ran for 81 last week and 50-yards in 2/4 outings. Good thing too since he’s failed to toss 205 yards in his last two games. Still, the guy has thrown two passing scores in 5-straight outings to always leave him as a viable starting option. This week against Denver though... The Broncos allow 193.9 yards in the air, lowest in football, and they have racked up 35 sacks, most in football. They’re also tied for second in fewest touchdown passes allowed – 10.

QUARTERBACKS TO AVOID

Alex Smith has thrown three touchdown passes in three games and five in six outings. Really don’t need to break it down further than that.

Joe Flacco last nine games: eight touchdown passes. His last five games he’s thrown six picks. The Dolphins have the third best pass rush in the league according to PFF, and 12^th overall defense. Miami has also held opponents under 205 passing yards in 5/7 games.  

Sam Bradford has six touchdown passes in six games. He’s only been picked three times this season, but with the play calling in Minnesota which is overly concerned about Bradford getting rid of the ball before his o-line disintegrates, there’s simply no upside with Bradford (in four of six outings he’s been under 230 passing yards). The Cowboys aren’t an impressive defense at all as they’ve picked just four passes while allowing 280 passing yards, second most in football.

Ryan Tannehill has seven scores the last three games and one pick in six outings. He’s also on the road where he has seven scores in five games against a Ravens team that is allowing 223 passing yards a game. The Ravens come into the contest as a top-10 defense as well (PFF).

Jared Goff threw for three scores in his second game, but in ¾ halves this season he’s performed poorly. Period. Now he goes on the road to take on the Patriots who rank 4^th overall in PFF defense, 2^nd in run defense and fifth in pass coverage. Good luck Rams.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).