Eduardo Rodriguez Chalkboard MLB Picks Today, 5/21: Baseball Projections + More

Looking for the best Chalkboard MLB picks today? After crunching the numbers and sifting through our MLB DFS projections, I’ve identified my favorite MLB player props today, and we are focusing on two of the best matchups on the board with our top MLB picks for today. With Eduardo Rodriguez and Dustin May, we are building a high-probability card with our best Chalkboard MLB picks for Thursday, May 21. You can also take these picks and add them to an entry with one of the MANY promo picks Chalkboard is offering for today!

Eduardo Rodriguez Chalkboard MLB Pick: Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed

Rodriguez has allowed two or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts, and he has a pretty solid 2.53 ERA (3.86 FIP) across nine starts this season. I’m loving the matchup today, and when E-Rod pitches at home, he has my attention. Across 27.1 IP at home this season, he has a 1.65 ERA (3.84 FIP), and 0.95 WHIP. While the .182 BABIP and 90.5 LOB% indicate some regression could be in store down the road, I’m not anticipating that beginning today.

Over the last two weeks, the Rockies have a .112 ISO, .277 wOBA, and league-worst wRC+ (60)! Furthermore, for the year against lefties, only the Padres have a lower wRC+ than the Rockies, and Colorado has a strikeout rate that is nearly 30%!

I love this matchup, and so long as E-Rod can limit walks to opposing RHH (10.9 BB% vs. RHH in 2026), baserunners should be few and far between, and Rodriguez can post 5+ IP with two or fewer earned runs allowed.

Dustin May Chalkboard MLB Pick: Over 1.5 Walks Allowed

Believe it or not, May has actually been quite good for the Cardinals. Half of the earned runs he’s allowed all season long came in his first two starts of the year, and he has an impressive 2.83 ERA over his last seven outings! However, he has issued multiple free passes in four straight starts, posting a 10.1% walk rate across those 24 innings of work.

The Pirates have been a tough challenge for opposing righties, and May’s struggles with left-handed hitters could be a bit of an issue for him today against Pittsburgh. May has posted a 10.9 BB% and .397 wOBA to lefties this season, and the Pirates’ lineup today should feature four lefties with a double-digit walk rate against RHP in 2026! For the entire season, Pittsburgh has the sixth-highest walk rate against right-handed pitching.

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