Welcome back to another round of MLB Best Bets Today as the 2025 baseball season rolls on. 

Sunday brings along another loaded MLB slate with 15 games on the schedule. We have every team in action and games going on all day. That means plenty of ways to go for MLB picks and predictions. Let’s focus on two games for our MLB best bets today before dishing out a few baseball player props and other picks to consider. 

The MLB picks below are accurate as of this writing, but some odds or lines could move before first pitch. All bets below are for one unit unless otherwise noted. Without further ado, let’s dive into our MLB Best Bets Today.

 

 

 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 8/3

Our MLB Best Bets Today start with a matchup of NL Wild Card hopefuls as the San Diego Padres host the St. Louis Cardinals. Plus, the Kansas City Royals and Toronto Blue Jays wrap up their weekend series with a potentially high-scoring game. Don’t miss more MLB picks and player props below. Check out these MLB predictions to make as you enjoy Sunday’s baseball action. 

 

 

 

St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres Predictions: Sunday, August 3rd

The San Diego Padres stole headlines at the MLB Trade Deadline with a slew of notable additions. The Padres are clearly going for it as they look to hold onto an NL Wild Card spot while also inching closer to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. 

San Diego’s top deadline moves included trading for Mason Miller, Ryan O’Hearn, and Ramon Laureano. One guy they held onto, though, was Dylan Cease. Now the right-hander gets the start today after remaining in town for the playoff push. 

Cease has a shaky 4.79 ERA amid a very up-and-down season. Yet, there are reasons to be optimistic. His 3.39 xFIP and 3.54 xERA suggest he’s pitching better than that lofty ERA indicates. Plus, his 29.9% strikeout rate (90th percentile), 33.8% whiff rate (94th), and 31.3% chase rate (82nd) are at elite levels. The .225 xBA (77th percentile) is also a lot lower than you’d think. 

Admittedly, Cease was roughed up in his last two home starts, allowing 11 runs combined. Before that, though, he was notably better with a 2.76 ERA over his previous 8 home starts. Let’s hope we get that version of the right-hander today. 

Cease gets a favorable matchup here at home against the Cardinals. This offense has really struggled against right-handed pitching lately. Since the All-Star break vs. righties, the Cards have a .207 BA (29th in MLB), .273 wOBA (28th), and .606 OPS (30th) in the split. 

On the other side, Andre Pallante starts for St. Louis. The righty has a 4.62 ERA this season, and he’s been hit around recently. Pallante owns a 5.04 ERA over his past 10 starts with the Cardinals going 3-7 in this stretch. He also has an ugly 6.75 ERA over his last 4 starts. 

Pallante also has a poor 4.82 ERA on the road this year. That includes 11 total runs and 17 hits allowed in his past 2 road starts combined. Now he has to face a San Diego offense that has been crushing righties lately. Over the past week in the split, the Padres have a .314 BA (3rd in MLB), .365 wOBA (4th), and 140 wRC+ (4th). 

Let’s back San Diego at home here. The Padres are 35-19 at home this year, including 7-2 in their last 9 home games. They should bounce back after losing to St. Louis last night. 

 

 

 

Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays Predictions: Sunday, August 3rd

The Kansas City Royals and Toronto Blue Jays have split the first two games of their weekend series so far. It’s been entertaining to see these two playoff-caliber teams battle it out, and now they finish it off today. Instead of picking a side on Sunday, let’s root for both offenses to set the tone. 

Royals starter Seth Lugo boasts a 3.03 ERA this season. As productive as he’s been, though, the underlying stats and recent numbers are concerning. Lugo’s 4.46 FIP and 4.85 xERA suggest negative regression. His .248 BABIP and 86.2% left-on-base rate are also unsustainable. 

Lugo has mostly avoided bad outings, but he’s flirting with danger. The veteran’s 46.5% hard-hit rate (10th percentile) and 10.5% barrel rate (16th) are worrisome. Plus, his 24.2% chase rate (11th percentile) and 21.8% whiff rate (25th) leave a lot to be desired. 

Then there’s Lugo’s recent form. He has a 4.56 ERA and 5.63 FIP over his past 4 starts. Some of those poor advanced metrics are starting to catch up to him. Now he has to face a dangerous Toronto lineup on the road. 

The Blue Jays are elite offensively at home this year, with a .347 wOBA (2nd in MLB), .274 BA (1st), and 123 wRC+ (2nd). They’re also crushing right-handed pitching since the All-Star break, with a .382 wOBA (1st), .322 BA (1st), and 147 wRC+ (1st) in the split. This is a scary matchup for Lugo. 

On the other side, Chris Bassitt has a 4.24 ERA for the Jays. The righty has some good outings lately, but he’s also run into trouble at times. Bassitt has a 5.26 ERA over his past 10 starts and a 4.08 ERA/5.15 FIP over his last 6 games. He just got roughed up for 6 runs in 2.1 innings last time out as well. 

Yes, Bassitt’s 2.65 ERA at home this year is impressive. Yet, his recent shaky starts are concerning. Now he has to face a Royals offense that’s hitting righties well. Over the past week, Kansas City has a .352 wOBA (8th in MLB), .819 OPS (9th), and 15.6% K rate (2nd) vs. right-handers. 

Let’s take the over in this series finale between KC and Toronto. The over has cashed in 7 of the last 11 games for the Blue Jays. Meanwhile, the over is 7-4-1 in the Royals’ last 12 contests. 

 

 

 

Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 8/3

 

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