Welcome back to another round of MLB Best Bets Today as the 2025 baseball season rolls on. 

Saturday’s baseball slate is loaded up with 15 games on the MLB schedule. We have games going on all day with plenty of ways to go for our top MLB picks and predictions. Let’s focus on two games for our MLB best bets today before dishing out a few baseball player props and other picks to consider. 

Keep in mind, some of these odds or lines could move before first pitch. All bets below are for one unit unless otherwise noted. Without further ado, let’s dive into our MLB Best Bets Today.

 

 

 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 7/5

Our MLB Best Bets Today feature a matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Kansas City Royals. Plus, we dive into a potential pitching duel late-night as the Seattle Mariners host the Pittsburgh Pirates. As always, don’t miss some top MLB player prop bets and other baseball picks below. Check out these MLB predictions to make as you enjoy Saturday’s baseball action. 

 

Kansas City Royals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Predictions: Saturday, July 5th

Let’s lead off our MLB picks with an interleague matchup between the Kansas City Royals and Arizona Diamondbacks. These teams had playoff aspirations entering the season, but both still have work to do in their respective Wild Card standings. Our MLB picks show value on one particular side of Saturday afternoon’s game. 

Arizona starter Ryne Nelson is coming off one of his best outings of the year. He struck out 7 in 6.2 scoreless innings against the Giants before the bullpen cost him a pair of runs. The right-hander has been very effective lately with a 1.61 ERA over his past four starts. He has a 2.63 ERA over his past eight outings as well. 

Nelson began the season in the Arizona bullpen and he’s now found a groove as a starter. He boasts a 2.33 ERA and 2.44 FIP at home this year, too. The Royals have bottom-tier numbers vs. right-handers this season with a .297 wOBA (28th in MLB) and 85 wRC+ (28th). Over the past two weeks, they have just a .287 wOBA (27th) and .224 batting average (25th) against righties.  

The KC offense is also slumping overall recently. The Royals are averaging just 2.6 runs per game over the past two weeks. It’s a good matchup at home for Nelson to limit the damage like he’s done a lot lately. 

On the other side, Michael Wacha starts for Kansas City. The veteran has a decent 3.88 ERA this year, but there are multiple factors going against him today. First, he’s been notably worse on the road with a 4.53 ERA and 4.69 FIP compared to a 2.81 ERA and 3.17 FIP at home.

Wacha has also struggled over the past month. He has a 5.40 ERA and 5.03 FIP over his last five starts. That includes allowing 5 runs on 8 hits to the Mariners on the road earlier this week. The right-hander’s low 18.3% K rate (22nd percentile) and .263 xBA (29th) are worrisome in tougher matchups. 

Arizona will make things hard on Wacha today. The D-backs are an elite offense vs. righties this season with a .347 wOBA (1st in MLB), 121 wRC+ (2nd), and .802 OPS (1st). They’re also a top-tier home offense (.343 wOBA, 117 wRC+, .794 OPS). 

After losing the series opener to Kansas City last night, Arizona should bounce back today. The D-backs have the offensive and starting pitching edge to lead after five and get the win. 

 

 

 

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Predictions: Saturday, July 5th

For our second round of MLB picks today, let’s look at another interleague matchup. The Seattle Mariners host the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday night in a potentially low-scoring game. The pitchers on both sides, along with key offensive splits, point to some unders cashing. 

Mariners starter Luis Castillo is having an up-and-down season with a 3.55 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Yet, he’s certainly capable of better overall numbers than those at his best. That’s what we can count on today at home. 

Castillo has been much more effective at home this year. He owns a 2.60 ERA, .196 batting average against, and .278 wOBA allowed at home compared to a 4.67 ERA, .302 BAA, and .352 wOBA on the road. He’s also tossed a quality start in five of his last six home outings. 

The Seattle righty has usually been better at home in recent years. He posted a 3.15 home ERA last season and a 3.09 ERA at home in 2023. Castillo takes advantage of the Mariners’ pitcher-friendly park. 

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is a bottom-tier offense against right-handed pitching this season, with a .298 wOBA and 86 wRC+ (both 27th in MLB). The Pirates woke up offensively in recent games, but it’s likely a matter of time until they revert back to a lower-level lineup – especially vs. righties. 

On the other side, Mike Burrows starts for Pittsburgh. The rookie’s 4.15 ERA overall this year doesn’t offer much confidence. However, he’s been much better lately. Burrows owns a 2.73 ERA over his last six outings entering this matchup. 

Burrows showed off his upside in the minors before getting called up in May. He posted a 2.51 ERA with a 31.5% K rate in eight Triple-A outings this year. The young right-hander appears to be more comfortable at the big-league level now. Behind him, the Pirates’ bullpen has a league-best 1.73 ERA over the past two weeks (3rd in MLB). 

On that note, Seattle also boasts an upper-tier bullpen overall this year. Over the past two weeks, the Mariners’ relievers have a collective 3.19 ERA (5th in MLB) as well. Take the under for both the full game and first five innings. Bank on Castillo and Burrows anchoring a low-scoring game. 

 

 

 

Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 7/5

 

 

 

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