Welcome back to another round of MLB Best Bets Today as the 2025 baseball season rolls on. 

Saturday’s baseball slate is loaded with 15 games on the MLB schedule. We have games going on all day and night with every team in action. That means plenty of ways to go for our top MLB picks and predictions. Let’s focus on two games for our MLB best bets today before dishing out a few baseball player props and other picks to consider. 

Keep in mind, some of these odds or lines could move before first pitch. All bets below are for one unit unless otherwise noted. Without further ado, let’s dive into our MLB Best Bets today.

 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 6/28

Our MLB Best Bets today start with an afternoon matchup between two NL Wild Card contenders as the Cincinnati Reds host the San Diego Padres. Plus, the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros face off tonight in a potentially high-scoring game. As always, don’t miss some top MLB player prop bets and other baseball picks below. Check out these MLB predictions to make as you enjoy Saturday’s baseball action. 

 

 

 

San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds Predictions: Saturday, June 28th

Earlier this month, the Cincinnati Reds sat three games under .500 with distant playoff hopes. Well, the Reds have gone 13-6 over their last 19 games and are now in the thick of the NL Wild Card race. They’ll look to continue those winning ways at home against the San Diego Padres on Saturday. 

Andrew Abbott starts for the Reds today, which gives them an edge right away. He’s pitching like an NL Cy Young contender this season with a 1.79 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Cincinnati is also 10-3 across his 13 starts so far. 

Abbott boasts some elite advanced metrics with a 32.5% hard-hit rate (91st percentile), .213 xBA (86th), and 31.4% chase rate (81st). Plus, the southpaw has a low 6.8% walk rate. He owns a 1.34 ERA since the beginning of May, with one or zero earned runs allowed in nine of his last 10 outings. 

Abbott will face a Padres offense that’s struggled vs. left-handed pitching lately. Over the past three weeks, San Diego has a .205 batting average (28th in MLB), .249 wOBA (29th), and 58 wRC+ (29th) against lefties. It’s also a below-average lineup in the split overall this year (.285 wOBA, 84 wRC+). 

On the other side, Cincy’s offense should provide run support against San Diego starter Randy Vazquez. He has a decent 3.60 ERA this year, but his 5.69 xERA and 5.51 FIP are much higher. The righty’s .235 BABIP and 83.0% left-on-base rate suggest negative regression, especially since he had a .330 BABIP and 72% LOB rate last year (not to mention a 4.87 ERA in 2024). 

Vazquez’s advanced stats are very underwhelming, and he’s easily prone to a bad outing. He has a 13.1% strikeout rate (1st percentile), 17.3% whiff rate (4th), 10.8% walk rate (16th), and 11.8% barrel rate (10th). It’s a worrisome profile in the wrong matchups. 

Cincinnati has a top-tier offense against right-handed pitching recently. Over the past three weeks vs. righties, the Reds have a .346 wOBA (4th in MLB), .797 OPS (3rd), .272 BA (3rd), and 115 wRC+ (8th). It’s also a top-10 road offense over the last month. 

Let’s back them to keep it going and lead after five innings and win on the full-game moneyline. Abbott should anchor Cincy at home in this spot.

 

 

 

Chicago Cubs vs. Houston Astros Predictions: Saturday, June 28th

Let’s now turn to an interleague matchup between two division leaders. The Houston Astros host the Chicago Cubs in an entertaining weekend series. We should see both offenses set the tone today as we bet on a high-scoring game. 

Cubs starter Colin Rea has a 4.42 ERA with a 5.20 xERA and 4.76 FIP. He has some poor advanced metrics with a 17.3% strikeout rate (16th percentile), .297 xBA (5th), 11.0% barrel rate (15th), 44.3% hard-hit rate (23rd), and 20.8% whiff rate (19th). 

Rea has also struggled lately with an 8.54 ERA over his past five starts. He has just a 6.65 ERA over his last eight starts as well. The Chicago right-hander is an easy fade on the road today against an Astros lineup that’s trending up. 

Houston boasts a top-10 offense vs. right-handed pitching over the past two weeks (.333 wOBA, 117 wRC+). The ‘Stros also have a top-10 offense at home this season (.330 wOBA, 116 wRC+). They’re averaging 5.1 runs per game over the past 16 contests as well. 

On the other side, Lance McCullers Jr. is expected to be activated off the Injured List to start for Houston today. He’s missed the past couple of weeks with a foot sprain and will return without making a rehab start. McCullers has a shaky 4.91 ERA and 4.23 FIP through seven starts this year. 

McCullers has been very up and down this year, but his home/road splits are interesting. He’s struggled mightily at home with a 5.37 FIP and .395 wOBA allowed (4 starts), compared to a 2.93 FIP and .237 wOBA on the road (3 starts). 

The Cubs present a tough matchup for the Astros’ starter. On the road this year, they rank first in batting average (.269), wOBA (.347), wRC+ (122), and OPS (.804). Chicago is also crushing right-handed pitching over the past week with a league-leading .379 wOBA, 147 wRC+, and .877 OPS. 

If McCullers doesn’t start, by the way, then it’ll be Ryan Gusto for the Astros. That also bodes well for the Cubs’ offense. Gusto has a 4.62 ERA and 1.48 WHIP this season, including a 6.06 ERA over his last seven starts. The righty has just a 5.03 ERA and .353 wOBA allowed at home as well. 

Grab the over for the full game here. We should see the scoring start early and often. There were 11 combined runs between the Cubs and Astros last night, and that can carry over into today. 

 

 

 

Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 6/28

 

 

 

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