What is up, Fantasy Alarm family? Sunday's slate has some of the best individual arms in baseball lined up at plus money. We have a rookie phenom with a 2.01 ERA stepping in against the Yankees. We have the strikeout rate leader in all of baseball, a pitcher who has been running a 13.6 K/9 that no one else in the sport can touch. We have a White Sox ace who has quietly turned into one of the best stories in the American League. And we have a Cardinals right-hander who just authored the best start of his career, a complete-game one-hit shutout, looking to follow it up. We are also flagging a name that should not be on your card at all today, given his own team scratched him from his last outing with knee soreness and his status for today remains anything but settled. Track every model movement at the Fantasy Alarm Bet Tracker and lock in the complete expert picks board before you finalize your card. Let us get into it.

 

 

 

Best MLB Strikeout Props Today

Chase Burns MLB Pick: Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+120)

Chase Burns has been the best story in the Reds rotation this season, and plus money on a pitcher with his strikeout volume is a number we are going to jump on every time. Burns has now held opponents to two runs or fewer in 13 of his 14 starts this season and has recorded at least seven strikeouts in 11 of them. The 23-year-old right-hander owns a stellar 2.01 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 95:26 K:BB across 80.2 innings, and he is slated to face the Yankees on the road in his next outing. His fastball-slider combination is elite, with his slider drawing whiffs at a 47 percent clip and limiting opponents to a .133 average on the pitch.

The Yankees' lineup is a legitimate strikeout environment, and Burns has the swing-and-miss arsenal to push deep into a lineup that has whiffed at an elevated rate all season. In his last outing against the Mets, he struck out seven over five scoreless innings while racking up 19 whiffs on just 100 pitches, striking out six of the first eight hitters he faced. That is the template for what we expect tonight. A 23-year-old with a near-30% strikeout rate, fresh off a dominant five-inning shutdown effort, getting plus money on 7.5 strikeouts against a quality lineup, is the kind of price we will take all day. Take it.

Dylan Cease MLB Pick: Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120)

Dylan Cease leads all of baseball in K/9 and this is not a typo. His 110 strikeouts on the season put him third in the majors behind Jacob Misiorowski and Cristopher Sanchez, but his 13.6 strikeouts per nine innings is the best mark among qualified pitchers anywhere in the sport. Since returning from a strained hamstring, Cease has been every bit as dominant as before the injury, posting a 2.93 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and a 44:13 K:BB across his last five outings.

He is lined up to face the Cubs this weekend on the road, a matchup that plays right into his swing-and-miss profile. In his last start against the Phillies, he struck out 11 over six innings while allowing just one run, continuing a stretch where he has been nearly unhittable when he has the ball in his hand. A pitcher running a league-best K/9 mark, fully built back up after injury, and getting modest negative juice on a 6.5 strikeout total is the type of price we want to attack. Lay the short number and ride the best swing-and-miss arm in the sport.

Davis Martin MLB Pick: Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+125)

Davis Martin getting plus money on a strikeout total this season is becoming a recurring gift, and we are not going to stop taking it. Martin is tied for second in the majors with eight wins while posting a 2.00 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 71:14 K:BB through 67.2 innings, numbers that put him squarely in the AL Cy Young conversation. In his last start against the Twins, he induced 14 whiffs and struck out five batters across six innings, picking up his eighth win of the season while extending one of the best stretches of his career.

Tonight he faces Detroit, and Martin's full four-pitch mix, leaning on his slider and changeup to generate chase, gives him a real path to clearing this number regardless of opponent. He has posted back-to-back seven-strikeout outings earlier this year and has not posted a start with fewer than three strikeouts all season. A pitcher with this level of dominance and consistency should not be available at plus money on a 5.5 strikeout total. Take advantage of it while the market remains slow to catch up.

Dustin May MLB Pick: Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+113)

Dustin May just authored the best start of his career, and we want to be on board as he looks to follow it up. May threw a complete-game one-hit shutout against the Padres in his most recent outing, striking out nine while walking just one across nine full innings. He became just the second MLB starter this season to twice take a no-hit bid into the seventh inning, with only Paul Skenes accomplishing the same feat. May improved to 2-0 with a 1.31 ERA in three June starts in that outing, pushing his season line to 5-6 with a 3.75 ERA and 75 strikeouts across 81.2 innings.

The fastball velocity held up deep into that start, averaging 97.9 mph in the first inning and still sitting at 96.9 mph in the ninth, a sign that his stuff is not fading as the season wears on. Tonight he is back on the mound against Kansas City, and a pitcher who just racked up nine strikeouts in the best outing of his career, with his velocity holding firm into the late innings, is a strong bet to clear this number again. Plus money on a pitcher riding this kind of form is exactly the type of value we look for. Take it.

 

 

 

Pitcher Strikeout Projections vs Betting Lines

Our projection engine runs through every single pitcher's recent pitch distributions, velocity tracking, and matching split data to find the biggest public gaps on the board. Comparing our internal projections directly against the sportsbooks' numbers from the daily betting board is the easiest way to see which lines are being overvalued by the public.

 

Highest Strikeout Upside Pitchers Today

These are the starting pitchers our daily model identifies as having the absolute highest missing-bat ceiling on today's board based on their performance metrics this season:

 

Best Matchups For Strikeouts Today

If you are looking to target lineups that are consistently swinging through pitches and struggling with contact control, these are the teams that strike out the most right now based on comprehensive season splits:

 

 

 

Strikeout Props to Avoid Today

Nathan Eovaldi MLB Pick: vs. San Diego Padres (Avoid)

Nathan Eovaldi's strikeout total today is not a number to touch in either direction, and the reason has nothing to do with his actual stuff. Eovaldi was scratched from his scheduled start against the Padres on Saturday due to left knee soreness, forcing the Rangers into a late rotation change with MacKenzie Gore moving up to start in his place. This is the second time in a little over a month that Eovaldi has been scratched, after also being pulled earlier this season with left-side tightness. Through 14 starts, he carries a 6-7 record with a 4.23 ERA, 83 strikeouts, and a 1.17 WHIP across 87.1 innings, numbers that already fall short of the standard he set in his career-best 2025 campaign.

Sunday's starter for Texas had not even been officially announced as of Saturday, and if Eovaldi does take the ball today, there is real reason to question whether he is anywhere close to full strength. A pitcher managing knee soreness, coming off a missed turn through the rotation, is not someone we want to lean on for a six-strikeout total against a Padres lineup that has shown the discipline to make him work all night. If he is pulled early as a precaution, the under has value, but the uncertainty around whether he even takes the mound, and in what form, makes this an avoid on both sides until there is clarity. Leave it alone.

 

Today's Best MLB Strikeout Parlay (+1,348 Odds)

We have combined these four highly strategic analytical angles into a premium, high-ROI parlay for your Sunday board:

Total Parlay Odds: +1,348 (A simple $10 bet walks away with $134.80 in net profit)

 

 

Pitcher

Team

Opponent

Line

Target Pick

Odds

Season ERA

Season Record

Chase BurnsCINNYY7.5OVER+1202.018-1
Dylan CeaseTORCHC6.5OVER-120——
Davis MartinCWSDET5.5OVER+1252.008-1
Dustin MaySTLKC5.5OVER+1133.755-6

 

 

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