If you’ve educated yourself before dipping your toe into the stolen base prop market, then you can probably just skip this introduction and head right into the research. But if this is your first time betting stolen bases, then understand the variance you are dealing with here. It is similar to betting home run props, and while Mark Lammey has been crushing for the season, there are still peaks and valleys. Remember, hitting one bet at +325 can make up for some losses, so do yourself a favor and check out his article as well. Don’t chase. But if you see something that makes sense, then go for it. For us here, we missed on our picks in yesterday’s article, but we’re simply going to appreciate the wins and maintain the process. Let’s dive into the research first and then let’s get to the MLB stolen base picks today.

Also, don’t forget to check out my new weekly stolen base report, as that series will continue to accrue data which will help us out on a daily basis. And speaking of daily help…you’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. And don’t forget to also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

 

 

Best MLB Stolen Base Prop Predictions Today

Identifying the best stolen base predictions requires matching elite sprint speeds against defensive liabilities and today’s board features incredible betting value across several players, from top stars to some bottom-of-the-lineup supporting characters. Take a look below but let’s be sure to match them up with the pitchers allowing the most steals to date. Be sure to check in with our MLB Odds Finder to find the best values. 

*Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Pitchers Most Vulnerable to Stolen Bases Today

When hunting for successful MLB stolen base picks today, targeting the right pitcher is half the battle. The following list is made up of the day’s starting pitchers who have allowed the most stolen bases this season.

 

 

Catchers Allowing the Most Stolen Bases

The final piece of the puzzle for finding the best stolen base predictions involves looking behind the dish at catcher pop times and throwing accuracy. How many times teams attempt to steal a base on a particular catcher is a strong indicator of who we expect to see doing the most running today. The following backstops have the lowest Caught Stealing% with a minimum of 10 SB attempts against them.

Best MLB Stolen Base Picks Today:

Locking in the best stolen base predictions means finding the absolute perfect storm of a high-on-base runner and a weak battery. Here are our top two MLB stolen base picks today for Tuesday, May 19:

Favorite Bets: 

Jake McCarthy, Colorado Rockies (+246) – While I’d be a little happier with McCarthy hitting closer to the top of the lineup, we’ll still lean on him with the Rangers using lefty Tyler Alexander as their opener. By the time McCarthy gets an at-bat, he’ll be facing starter/bulk-reliever Kumar Rocker who has allowed four stolen bases this year. The Rangers catchers have a combined caught-stealing success rate of just 22.7-percent so whether it’s Danny Jansen or Kyle Higashioka, we don’t care. Rocker struggles against left-handed hitters, allowing a .363 wOBA with a .385 OBP while McCarthy thrives against righties, posting a .365 wOBA and seven of his eight stolen bases this year have come against right-handed pitching. 

Longshot:

Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles (+379) – We’re going back to the well again with Rays backstop Hunter Feddicia and his 29-percent caught-stealing success rate. Rays starter Griffin Jax is also struggling against lefthanded hitters, allowing them a .366 wOBA with a .385 OBP. It's risky because Henderson is striking out 28.8 percent of the time against righties, but he should tap in to that Rays bullpen once Jax has thrown his 70 pitches. And while this may come as a bit of a surprise, five of Henderson's six steals this season have come against righties.