It was another successful day for our new stolen base prop article as we nailed out Favorite Bet with Brice Turang of the Milwaukee Brewers who had +219 odds to steal a base on Friday. It was a shame out longshot pick of Sam Antonacci missed, but that’s now three winning SB picks in the last two days. As we mentioned in yesterday’s article, it’s not going to be like that every night. Stolen base props are a high-variance market similar to home run props, which Mark Lammey has been crushing on the regular. We’re simply going to appreciate the wins and maintain the process. Let’s dive into the research first and then let’s get to the MLB stolen base picks today.

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Best MLB Stolen Base Prop Predictions Today

Identifying the best stolen base predictions requires matching elite sprint speeds against defensive liabilities and today’s board features incredible betting value across several players, from top stars to some bottom-of-the-lineup supporting characters. Take a look below but let’s be sure to match them up with the pitchers allowing the most steals to date. Be sure to check in with our MLB Odds Finder to find the best values. 

*Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

 

 

 

Pitchers Most Vulnerable to Stolen Bases Today

When hunting for successful MLB stolen base picks today, targeting the right pitcher is half the battle. The following list is made up of the day’s starting pitchers who have allowed the most stolen bases this season.

 

 

 

Catchers Allowing the Most Stolen Bases

The final piece of the puzzle for finding the best stolen base predictions involves looking behind the dish at catcher pop times and throwing accuracy. How many times teams attempt to steal a base on a particular catcher is a strong indicator of who we expect to see doing the most running today. The following backstops have the lowest Caught Stealing% with a minimum of 10 SB attempts against them.

 

 

 

Best MLB Stolen Base Picks Today:

Locking in the best stolen base predictions means finding the absolute perfect storm of a high-on-base runner and a weak battery. Here are our top two MLB stolen base picks today for Saturday, May 16:

Favorite Bets: 

Chandler Simpson, Tampa Bay Rays (+145)

Everyone is running wild on the Marlins right now and most are having tremendous success. Liam Hicks has just a 10-percent caught stealing rate off 20 attempts and Joe Mack isn’t much better with a 14-percent CS rate over seven attempts. With Marlins righthander Sandy Alcantara allowing six stolen bases on the season and having command issues which have pushed his walk-rate to 8.3-percent, we’re going to lock onto Simpson who is posting a .349 wOBA with a .376 OBP and 12 of his 14 steals against righthanders.

Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (+286)

I haven’t really been looking at a lot of guys running against lefties because their pick-off move to first is usually pretty deceptive, but with Joey Cantillo allowing seven stolen bases (most on the slate) and the Guardians catchers combining for just a 9.3-percent caught stealing rate, we’re going to lean on De La Cruz’ sprint-speed and aggressiveness on the bases rather than worry about his 70-percent success rate. He strikes out too much against southpaws, but he’s also sporting a .420 wOBA against them, so if you’re looking for bigger odds than what Simpson has, this could be your pick.

 

 

 

Longshot Bet

Bobby Witt, Kansas City Royals (+420)

If we’re really going fishing today, then why not go back to Witt who cashed for us on Thursday? He’s facing Cardinals righthander Kyle Leahy who has allowed five steals on the year and doesn’t have all that exciting of a repertoire. Witt has a .378 wOBA with a .373 OBP and has six of his 13 steals against righties this season. The risk comes if it’s Pedro Pages and his 32-percent caught stealing rate behind the dish. If it’s Ivan Hererra who hasn’t caught any of the eight baserunners he’s tried to throw out, then we’re in business so be sure to check out MLB Starting Lineups page for the lineup announcement.