Happy 4th of July and welcome back to the best stolen base picks for today. We got off to a nice start for the holiday weekend as yesterday’s picks did us just fine. While Chandler Simpson never made the starting lineup and didn’t get into the game for a no-bet, we hit with Jose Caballero on a +290 pick which, to me, sets the tone for the weekend. Now, let’s keep that momentum rolling! 

As always, Fantasy Alarm is your one-stop shop for all sports betting and player props and we’ve got everything for MLB from the stolen bases to the home runs  to strikeouts to all the best bets you need to be a successful sports bettor. Our Bet Tracker is loaded up for the day and all the articles are available to you. With the help of our new stolen base prop finder, it’s time to dive into the research and deliver the best in MLB stolen base picks today.

Also, don’t forget to check out the latest edition of the new weekly stolen base report, as that series will continue to accrue data which will help us out on a daily basis. Everything you need for both daily and weekly fantasy baseball help. And speaking of daily help…you’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. And don’t forget to also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

 

Best MLB Stolen Base Prop Predictions Today

Identifying the best stolen base predictions requires matching elite sprint speeds against defensive liabilities and today’s board features incredible betting value across several players, from top stars to some bottom-of-the-lineup supporting characters. Take a look below but let’s be sure to match them up with the pitchers allowing the most steals to date. Be sure to check in with our MLB Odds Finder to find the best values.  

*Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

 

 

 

Pitchers Most Vulnerable to Stolen Bases Today

When hunting for successful MLB stolen base picks today, targeting the right pitcher is half the battle. The following list is made up of the day’s starting pitchers who have allowed the most stolen bases this season.

 

Catchers Allowing the Most Stolen Bases

The final piece of the puzzle for finding the best stolen base predictions involves looking behind the dish at catcher pop times and throwing accuracy. How many times teams attempt to steal a base on a particular catcher is a strong indicator of who we expect to see doing the most running today. The following backstops have the lowest Caught Stealing% with a minimum of 10 SB attempts against them.

 

 

 

Best MLB Stolen Base Picks Today:

Locking in the best stolen base predictions means finding the absolute perfect storm of a high-on-base runner and a weak battery. Here are our top two MLB stolen base picks today for Saturday, July 4:

Favorite Bets: 

Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (+248)

He’s been absolutely dynamic this season and we’ll look to him for a stolen base today against Cardinal right-hander Kyle Leahy, who has allowed seven stolen bases on the season. The real kicker here is who’s catching? Pedro Pages has a 30-percent caught-stealing rate which is above the league-average. That’s not to say PCA can’t/won’t steal a base off of him because I’m betting it no matter who’s behind the dish, but I would certainly prefer to see Ivan Herrera who has yet to catch a base-runner in 18 attempts. We should cash either way, but one is certainly an easier path.

Travis Bazzana, Cleveland Guardians (+357)

We just saw McGonigle get a day off to clear his head from a slump and he’s responded with back-to-back multi-hit games. We’re ready to invest in him again, especially at these longer odds. Bazzana, who owns a .395 wOBA against righties with an elite sprint-speed and 80-percent success rate on the bases, gets Sean Burke on the mound today. Burke has allowed lefties to post a .316 wOBA against him while his catchers have a combined caught-stealing percentage of just 23.3-percent. Look for Bazzana to stay aggressive at the dish as well as on the bases. 

Kevin McGonigle, Detroit Tigers (+453)

He’s riding a four-game hit streak and has hit safely in eight of his last nine with two stolen bases in that span. The lefty rookie, who owns a .415 OBP against right-handed pitching, faces Kumar Rocker who has allowed 11 stolen bases on the year and his catching tandem of Kyle Higashioka and Elias Diaz has a combined caught-stealing rate of just 20.3-percent. Once McGonigle gets on-base, neither catcher will be able to contain him.