It’s officially the final the Sunday before the first NFL slate, so what better way to make the most of it than with some MLB home run picks? We just cashed a huge +725 pick with Bryan Reynolds last night as well! As for today, we have a ton of afternoon action leading up to Sunday Night Baseball AND a featured Nationals vs. Dodgers matchup. It’s a unique slate, so let’s enjoy it all with the best MLB home run predictions for the most value possible!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

The slate starts in the AM for any non-east-coasters with the Great American Ball Park, which is always great to target for MLB home run picks. That said, it also features Kyle Harrison for the Milwaukee Brewers, so perhaps you’ll prefer some K props with our MLB expert picks. Targets there are the perfect way to pair things with the longball here. Speaking of which, you can consider even more MLB home run predictions with our exclusive MLB home run prop tool.

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 9/6: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

We’ve mentioned the Great American Ball Park and you’ve seen the names of our favorite MLB home run picks, but why did those guys make the cut? For starters, our MLB weather report helps determine the overall spots that we like to then pinpoint the specific players. After that, we can fully break down the starters on the mound.

That means everything from their righty/lefty splits to underlying metrics like barrel rates, expected ISO and more. Hitters have values to consider as well such as more splits, expected slugging, hard-hit rates and more. We also have to remember that bullpens play a role in MLB home run picks, and you’ll see even more factors as we break down each target below!

James Wood (+439)

There is no better place to start than Dodger Stadium for the coast-to-coast matchup with the Washington Nationals. Ok, it does mean that we’ll have to wait longer than usual on a Sunday for a homer to get crushed, but we want to pick on Justin Wrobleski. The lefty is making his return as a starter to help us cash some MLB home run picks.

He first returned from the IL with a relief appearance, allowing a homer in his short time on the mound. That’s not all - we saw tons of regression before his injury. In his last four starts before being placed on the IL, he allowed four homers TWICE, two homers in another start in then one more for a total of 11 allowed.

As for Wood’s return from the IL, we have yet to see a dinger. He’s still had at least a hit in all three games, and tonight, he cashes one of our MLB home run picks when we lock in James Wood hitting a HR (+439 at DraftKings).

Michael Harris (+400)

We’re going to swap to a different NL East team with the Atlanta Braves taking on Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola. Admittedly, he has his periods of racking up K’s, but he also has quite a low floor. Not only that, but when facing the NL East rival of the Atlanta Braves, that floor translates directly to letting MLB home run picks cash.

In his last six starts against ATL, he’s allowed at least one homer and nine in total! That’s exactly the type of consistency we love to see, and moreover, we love seeing that he allows a .214 ISO or better to BOTH sides of the plate! Of course, when it comes to the Braves, it’s primarily about their lefty bats. 

It’s Matt Olson that is the clear chalk pick here, but let’s get even more value in here with our top MLB home run picks today by locking in Michael Harris hitting a HR (20%, so +400, at Novig).

Miguel Vargas (+376)

The theme of NL East teams ends here, but at least we’re adding to the featured Sunday Night Baseball game! This time, it’s against a righty change-up thrower, and while that may not have you thinking about high exit velocities, Bailey Ober allows a ton of power. Specifically, lefties really love facing him to cash MLB home run picks, so what’s with our pick?

We saw lefties Munetaka Murakami and Colson Montgomery both homer in the first inning last night, but we’re still rolling with the guy who has hit for us multiple times this season. You may recall that we often focus on his amazing ability to hit lefties, but he truly hits everyone well. That includes for power - he has a .208 ISO vs. righties as well!

Along with his ridiculous 98th percentile launch-angle sweet-spot rate against all pitching, we love closing out our top MLB home run picks today with Miguel Vargas hitting a HR (21%, so +376, at Novig).

 

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

One of the few things more exciting than hitting our top three MLB home run picks and FREE bonus pick is hitting a longshot, and here’s who we’re locking in to close out the weekend…

Anytime we can get some longshot odds at Coors Field, why not? When it comes to Colorado, Jake McCarthy is a favorite target of ours, and if a lefty was on the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals, we’d likely go that route. However, let’s enjoy a very similar price for a guy that has even more (16!) homers, yet qualifies as an MLB home run longshot pick!

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

We said one of the few ways was our longshot, but another way to keep the value coming is with a for-fun parlay. You can piece together multiple MLB home run picks like we’ve done below…

You likely saw Olson coming with our comment earlier, Bauers can blast off vs. Brady Singer and the Reds bullpen at the Great American Ball Park and Moniak gets a righty at Coors Field. Throw in Alec Burleson for a four-legger, but this is how we’re adding to our top MLB home run picks today!