The final weekend before NFL action is in full swing, and with a Saturday loaded with awesome matchups, there’s no better way to enjoy them than with our best MLB home run picks for today. There are fewer afternoon games than usual, so let us help you make the most of the slate to make it even more exciting AND valuable. Guys like Zack Wheeler and Jacob deGrom are household names on the mound, but we’ve also got guys like Yusei Kikuchi and Jeffrey Springs to consider picking on with our top MLB home run predictions!

You’ll also want to check out the best fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state. Make sure that you also crush your MLB DFS contests today with our DFS Playbook, Starting Lineups, Lineup Generator & DFS Tools!

⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Wheeler and deGrom aren’t even the only seasoned veterans worth targeting today, which includes a lefty vs. lefty battle of Carlos Rodon vs. Robbie Ray. Therefore, you’ll want to go beyond just our best MLB home run picks with more markets. That’s why our MLB expert picks are also a must! However, some fans only care about dingers - no problem. Our exclusive MLB home run prop tool has recently been updated for even more MLB home run predictions!

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 9/5: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

There has been enough reference to starting pitchers already, but before we even break down their metrics, we always check out our very own MLB weather report first. We want to avoid postponements while also checking out the wind and humidity conditions that can help/hurt MLB home run picks. After that, it’s all about the starters on the mound.

We go to pitchers first because they are the ones that rotate day in and day out, while the hitters largely remain constant. Regardless, both share most of the same metrics that we analyze, including righty/lefty splits, slugging, ISO, pitch type performances, barrel rates, hard-hit rates and more. With those in mind, let’s start breaking down each of our best MLB home run picks for today! 

Bryan Reynolds (+725)

You’ve seen us all about the Pittsburgh Pirates the past couple of days, and that’s going to continue today given the matchup. Of course, it remains the same in terms of the Los Angeles Angels, which means their poor bullpen. As for today specifically, it also means Yusei Kikuchi, who has allowed multiple MLB home run picks to cash in back-to-back starts.

Those were his first two outings since missing almost a full four months of the year, so it’s safe to say that he is far from midseason form. Most importantly, the lefty is giving up a ton of power to the right side of the plate to the tune of a .238 ISO. Reynolds has a higher slugging vs. lefties than righties this year, and as a switch hitter, he’s set up nicely against the Angels bullpen later in the game.

Take Esmerlyn Valdez for a value play like we did yesterday, but we’ll switch things up for you and lead off our top MLB home run picks today with MASSIVE value (this is around +560 most spots) and take Bryan Reynolds hitting a HR (+725 at BetMGM).

Randy Arozarena (+425)

If that crazy +725 price surprised you, then let’s move right into another spot that may surprise some fans out there, as we’re calling for a homer in Seattle! It’s considered the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in many regards, but apparently the A’s didn’t care last night - they cashed FOUR MLB home run picks in the third inning alone!

Well, now the A’s are the ones that we expect to allow the homers, as they’re starting Jeffrey Springs. After missing some time, he’s right back to where he was before the IL - leading the league in homers allowed with 33! We know that Cal Raleigh has figured things out and homered in the third inning last night as well, but we love another value spot.

So, we’re rolling with this righty’s .500 slugging and .213 ISO vs. lefties by adding to our best MLB home run picks today with Randy Arozarena hitting a HR (19.05%, so +425, at ProphetX).

Hunter Goodman (+315)

After those extremely valuable plays, we’d say that we’re going to a chalk pick, but even seeing this guy not in the +200’s while at home in Coors Field is very valuable. He’s just a few behind the league lead with 36, and he hasn’t even been healthy all season. Thankfully, he is now to take advantage of Matthew Liberatore.

Don’t get it twisted, the Cardinals can do their fair share of damage vs. Mason Adams, who is Colorado’s rookie starter making just his third career outing. Even still, we can’t pass up Goodman’s .243 ISO vs. lefties, which we can pair with Liberatore allowing 18 of his 25 homers to right-handed hitters. Remember, we’ve seen Colorado’s catcher with multiple three-homer games!

Of course, we only need one to cash our MLB home run picks here, so we’re locking in Hunter Goodman hitting a HR (24.1%, so +315, at ProphetX).

 

 

 

🎯 Newsletter Exclusive Pick 🎯

Our top home run picks are above, but we also included one bonus HR play exclusively in today's edition of The Daily Alarm. If you're subscribed, don't forget to check your inbox before lock. If not, sign up for free to get these extra and exclusive picks daily!

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Having our top three MLB home run picks and a FREE bonus pick is certainly enough to load up with today, but if you’re still seeking more action, here is our favorite longshot spot for today’s slate…

If the price tag with Bryan Reynolds made the cut for our top targets, you know we had to go big here. Robbie Ray may be a well-known name in the baseball world, but he’s just not having a great season. Meanwhile, the Yankees rookie made a name for himself in his MLB debut, and by cashing our best MLB home run longshot pick for today, he’ll continue to do so! 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

If you’re STILL seeking more action, well, we’ve still got you covered. For the biggest potential payout of any MLB home run picks thus far, here is our favorite for-fun parlay for today’s slate…

Two lefties that SHOULD’VE gone yard for us last night and a guy with an entire career that is known for hitting lefties. Let’s see all of these MLB home run picks hit today/tonight!