Saturday is the crown jewel of the MLB week - a full slate, the most ballparks in play and the best long ball conditions of any day on the calendar. Our MLB home run picks for today are built specifically for it, targeting the matchups where pitching vulnerabilities, favorable park factors and recent power trends all line up in the same direction. When all three point the same way on a Saturday, that's where the best MLB home run predictions come from.

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⚾ Top MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Saturday's expanded slate gives us the widest field of targets of the week for our MLB home run picks and we've cut it down to the three names we feel strongest about. Check our MLB expert picks for additional angles beyond the long ball markets. Here's who's headlining our top MLB home run picks for today:

 

 

 

🔥 Best Matchups for Home Runs Today, 5/16: Ballpark Factors & Weather Impact

Saturday afternoon starts at several parks make our MLB weather report an even more important tool today than usual - wind direction shifts between first pitch and late afternoon games can be dramatic and the difference between a fly ball dying at the track and clearing the fence. Beyond conditions we're digging into each pitcher's season-long HR/FB rate, the batter's exit velocity trends and recent form to make sure every MLB home run prediction below is grounded in real edge.

Shea Langeliers (+323)

Look, we know that we’ve targeted the Sacramento Rivers Cats stadium a few times here recently, but it’s not for good reason. After all, Shea Langeliers’ teammate Nick Kurtz has homered in three straight games! We were also on the right matchup with our MLB home run picks, just with the wrong guy.

We targeted a lefty on the San Francisco Giants with Rafael Devers, but it was fellow lefty Luis Arraez that went deep (generally known as a contact hitter). Regardless, we’re on the A’s side tonight, as you can see, given that San Fran is starting a weak righty in Trevor McDonald. The A’s catcher is hitting .331 vs. righties this season with 9 of his 12 homers against them!

So, let’s lead off our best MLB home run picks for today with the nightcap by locking in Shea Langeliers to hit a HR (+323 at Novig Sportsbook).

Corey Seager (+355)

Another factor that you’ve seen us prioritize is that of the Houston Astros bullpen. They’ve been absolutely dreadful this season, allowing the MLB-most 34 homers to go along with their MLB-worst bullpen ERA. So, when we see the ‘Stros starting an opener in Kai-Wei Teng, you know where we’re looking to add to our best MLB home run picks for today.

That would be the Texas Rangers lineup, who just had to deal with Spencer Arighetti last night in their shutout loss. This matchup is FAR different, and Texas’ shortstop had the day off yesterday. Admittedly, Seager hasn’t been at his best vs. right-handed pitching this season, but his history has us comfortable that an upswing is in play.

Speaking of swings, we’re going to make Corey Seager hitting a HR (+355 at BetMGM Sportsbook) an addition to our top MLB home run picks today.

Corbin Carroll (+316)

Ok, there’s no way that we could avoid going back to Coors Field. Yesterday, we gave out Mickey Moniak with a note to consider Hunter Goodman. So, naturally, Goodman went yard in the bottom of the first inning. We digress - we also saw Arizona put up SIX runs in the top of the first, so let’s focus there with our best MLB home run picks for today.

We’re going to roll with the young stud going against Tomoyuki Sugano. Other than avoiding walks, the Rockies righty doesn’t have a ton going for him. Specifically, opponent barrel rates are fantastic, and therefore, so are their hard hit rates. Even if it doesn’t come early, Colorado’s bullpen has allowed 25 homers this season, which is the 3rd-most in the MLB.

Coors Field has afternoon action, so lock this in ASAP: the third play from our best MLB home run picks for today on Corbin Carroll hitting a HR (+316 at DraftKings Sportsbook).

 

 

 

🚀 Longshot Home Run Picks Today

Saturday's deep slate means more options to hunt for value beyond our three featured MLB home run picks - and today's longshot is one we genuinely love at the number:

This isn’t the longest of longshots, we’ve given out, so if you prefer, consider this our value pick. In other words, these odds simply shouldn’t be north of +700, let alone +800. With the matchup against the Astros opener and bullpen noted earlier, we LOVE this as our best MLB home run longshot pick for today.

 

 

 

💲 Today’s Best MLB Home Run Parlay

Stack our featured MLB home run predictions together if you prefer, but here's what Saturday's best parlay looks like with some new names:

Our favorite targets across the biggest MLB slate of the week - three featured MLB home run picks, a longshot with real upside and more. Enjoy our best MLB home run picks for today and keep an eye on lineups as they drop throughout the morning!