2017 NFL Target Analysis: Week 3

There are now three weeks in the books and it feels like the season just started yesterday. We’ve compiled some excellent data so far this season as our target list continues to become more clear with each passing week on who is each team’s go-to guy, who is trending up and if we compare last week’s data with this one, who’s trending down as well.

Target Leaders

DeAndre Hopkins has sat atop the proverbial targets throne for all three weeks this season but that gap has shrunk. After a 14-target Sunday, Antonio Brown is second in the league, just one behind Hopkins. If we’re being completely honest, this might continue to be a two-horse race all the way to Week 17. Hopkins continues to be Houston’s only true weapon in the passing attack and Antonio Brown has been in the top-five in the NFL in targets since 2013. Larry Fitzgerald and A.J. Green are also over 30 targets this year, but the over 30 list stops right there.

Out of the 58 names on this week’s list, we have 20 new faces that weren’t listed after two weeks of the season. After the aforementioned two weeks, we had just one New York Giant on the list in Shane Vereen. Vereen happened to missed the cut this week after being an afterthought in Week 3, but four Giants pass catchers have been added. Odell Beckham Jr., Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard all saw 10-plus targets in Week 3 with Beckham pacing the group with 13. This is going to continue to be a theme thanks to the non-existent running game the Giants feature.

We touched on noticeable admissions from our list last week -- and it will be a weekly thing going forward -- and the most noticeable three have to be Sammy Watkins, Jordy Nelson and Michael Crabtree. Nelson’s omission is simply because his Week 2 injury that limited him to fewer than 10 snaps while Watkins and Crabtree haven’t been major parts of their team's offense thus far. Each have had one monster game -- Crabtree in Week 2 and Watkins in Week 3 -- but Crabtree saw just three targets in Week 3 and Watkins had seven combined over the first two weeks of his ‘17 campaign.

Target Percentage

There are only four guys on this list (Hopkins, Brown, Green, Landry) who own a target percentage north of 30-percent. Brown and Landry are the only two players in the league to see double-figure targets in each game they’ve played. The data early on this year tells us this is likely how things will go for most of the campaign. All four of these guys are the clear cut go-to receivers for their respective QB’s. We could see players such as Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones to take on more responsibility in their teams passing games and approach the elite mark of 30-percent as well, but obviously only time will tell if that’s how it plays out.

We’re seeing a lot of quarterbacks spread the wealth this year, limiting the chance for some pass catchers to really separate themselves as their teams top dog. For example we have five teams that have three or more guys on this list in the Giants, Redskins, Packers, Seahawks, and the Titans. It’s really hard to have one guy stand out when you’re targeting three or more guys and looking to establish a running game at the same time!

Red Zone Targets

After a four red zone target Week 3, Larry Fitzgerald took over the league lead with eight total RZ targets. He’s followed by last league’s leader, Dez Bryant, who has seven targets inside the 20. What’s interesting about Bryant and the fact that he’s second in the league is the stiff competition he’s faced thus far. He’s been shadowed by Janoris Jenkins, Aqib Talib and Patrick Peterson in the first three weeks. He’s only caught two-of-seven, but the elite talent he’s faced hasn’t deferred Dak Prescott from looking his way often. Bryant’s red zone volume might actually go up from here now that he’s navigated his way through that three week gauntlet.

Only eight players out of the 58 on our list haven’t received any looks from inside the 20-yard line, and Marqise Lee is the only player in the top-30 that has a goose egg in the red zone targets department. Mercedes Lewis caught three touchdowns for the Jags last week and Allen Hurns is also more of a touchdown threat than Lee is. Lee’s fantasy value could suffer a bit because of this.

Stefon Diggs has probably, well definitely been the most efficient player on our list within the red zone. Not only has he caught all four of his RZ targets, but he’s scored a league leading three times within the 20 as well. He’s actually made Case Keenum look competent which is not the easiest of things to do.

Drops

Amari Cooper has had issues catching the ball in his first two seasons and things have changed here in 2017. He leads the league by a wide margain as he's dropped six passes already this season according to Pro Football Focus. Averaging two drops per week is horrible and he may begin losing targets if his hands can't be relied on.

Marqise Lee, Keenan Allen and Odell Beckham Jr. check in next of the list with three drops each. We’ve come to accept Beckham and his drops due to the fact he almost always makes up for it with some crazy acrobatic catch that leaves us in awe. He won’t ever lose targets because of a few drops here and there, so don’t even let that thought begin to creep into your mind.

Lee, despite the case of the dropsies, will continue to lead the Jags in targets going forward with Allen Robinson out. It may not be a coincidence, however, that he has zero red zone targets because until he can be relied upon to not drop passes at a high rate, Blake Bortles will like elsewhere in the RZ for more stability.

Allen's been a bit of a surprise here, but he could be shaking off the rust from missing all of last season. Philip Rivers hasn't stopped looking his way because of the dropped balls as he sits tied for seventh in targets amongst all pass catchers in the league.