Ok, I admit it.  I took the idea for this article from my friend Nate Miller who wrote the 2017 Fantasy Football Wide Receivers: Mock Draft Army ADP Bargians.  I suggest you give that a read as it is well done, so well done that I decided to do a similar article for the quarterback position.  So here is my breakdown on the early ADP rankings at the QB position from the Mock Draft Army.

Top of the List

I’ve talked about the three guys at the top in past articles so I won’t go too far in depth here but Aaron Rodgers (35.52), Tom Brady (45.52) and Drew Brees (52.48) to nobody’s surprise tops the ADP rankings.  Rodgers is coming off a strong season which saw him throw for 4,428 yards with 40 touchdowns and seven interceptions.  Brady, as we know, was suspended for the first four games of the season in 2016 but still managed to throw for 3,554 yards with 28 touchdowns and two interceptions over 12 games.  Brees lead the NFL in passing yards in 2016 as he threw for 5,208 yards with 37 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. 

Next Best Thing?

Andrew Luck and Matt Ryan have ADP’s of 71.52 and 71.57 respectively but despite being ranked in that second tier of starters they are not without question marks.  Andrew Luck is currently on the PUP list with a shoulder issue that could very well force him to miss the opening week of the regular season and beyond.  Luck’s injury history along with a shaky offensive line certainly make his ranking as the No.4 QB off the board quite the risk.  Ryan is coming off season which saw him with career highs in yards (4,944), touchdowns (38) and career low seven interceptions.  While that season was certainly spectacular fantasy owners have never seen THAT level of success from Matt Ryan before and this season the Falcons will be under new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian who will be coming from the college game which should lend to some questions as to whether Ryan could repeat, never mind, exceed his MVP season.

The Middle Tier

In the middle rounds, we see Russell Wilson (87.71), Marcus Mariota (94.19) and Cam Newton (98.57) all coming off the board.  Wilson had an interesting season as he threw for a career high 4,219 yards but also threw just 21 touchdowns and career worst 11 touchdowns.  Wilson also played injured during the 2016 season which really limited his mobility and held him to a career low 259 yards rushing.  The Seahawks offensive line is also among the worst in the NFL so it will be interesting to see if they are able to keep Wilson upright and healthy for this upcoming season.  Mariota is a player surging up most draft boards after a successful sophomore campaign which saw him throw for 3,426 yards with 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions.  Mariota also ran for 349 yards and four touchdowns.  A knee injury ended Mariota’s season after 15 games but he is healthy and ready for training camp.  The Titans add a slew of receiving weapons for Mariota to throw to this season which should bode well for his success.  It seems like we are going year-to-year with Cam Newton and his level of success on the football field and after an MVP 2015 season we saw a big decline in production in 2016.  Newton had shoulder surgery this offseason and may not play at all during the preseason which will be a big question mark next to his name for me at least but members of the Mock Draft Army are taking Newton in the eighth round of most standard 12-team formats.  Others going in this middle-tiered range are Kirk Cousins (105.90) and Derek Carr (109.43).  Cousins will be working with a new No.1 receiver in Terrell Pryor who will be looking to prove his 2016 season was no fluke while hoping stud tight end Jordan Reed can find a way to stay on the field which is not looking too good seeing as he is already dealing with a foot injury in training camp.  Carr was on many breakout candidate lists in 2016 and to an extent he met those expectations as he threw for 3,937 yards with 28 touchdowns and six interceptions.  The Raiders boast one of football’s best offensive lines and added running back Marshawn Lynch in the offseason so it is fair to wonder if the offensive approach will shift a bit towards the run but Carr should be a safe bet as long as receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree can stay healthy.

Waiting on a QB I See

For many, the common strategy when it comes to drafting a fantasy QB is to wait.  The majority of fantasy QB’s put up very similar statistics once you get past the first handful so the idea is why not stock up on valuable skill positions and take a QB in the later rounds.  Some notable names I found going in the 10th round or later of most standard leagues are Ben Roethlisberger (115.86), Jameis Winston (121.24), Dak Prescott (127.38) and Andy Dalton (163.10).  Big Ben has one of the higher ceilings but also presents some serious risk given his recent injury history. However, a healthy Roethlisberger will start that season with receiver Martavis Bryant back in the lineup to compliment Antonio Brown and running back Le’Veon Bell.  Bryant, Brown and Bell are all elite receiving options and if the offensive line can hold up Roethlisberger could be in for a big season.  A name that is popping up on everybody’s sleeper list this season is Jameis Winston.  The former No.1 overall pick threw for 4,090 yards with 29 touchdowns and 18 interceptions in 2016.  The Buccaneers went and added to his receiving arsenal this offseason by signing DeSean Jackson and drafting tight end O.J. Howard.  Jackson will give Winston a legitimate No.2 receiver to be paired with Mike Evans and Howard, though a rookie, has the skill set to be an immediate impact receiver in the NFL and should work well with Cameron Brate who caught 57 passes for 660 yards and eight touchdowns last season at the Buc’s tight end position. Dak Prescott could have a lot put on his shoulders heading into the season with news now coming out that Ezekiel Elliot will be suspended for six games to open the regular season.  Prescott thrived in the run first offense of the Cowboys in 2016 as he managed the passing attack and limited turnovers.  The lack of Elliot on the field could see Prescott throw more than expected which should lead to a boost in his ADP for those who believe in his abilities.  The Cowboys really did little to add to his receiver group however so look for the usual faces of Dez Bryant, Jason Witten and Prescott’s seemingly favorite target in Cole Beasley to do most of the damage. Finally, we have Andy Dalton of the Bengals.  Dalton finished last season throwing for 4,206 yards with 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions.  The 18 touchdowns is certainly a troubling number as the Bengals offense seemed to rely more on the run when in the red zone than let Dalton throw to either of his stud receivers in A.J. Green or tight end Tyler Eifert.  The Bengals did draft running back Joe Mixon in the second round this year and figure to feature a three-headed monster of a backfield with Jeremy Hill, Gio Bernard and Joe Mixon all getting shares of the load but you can’t deny the receiving talent the Bengals have and I would expect a bump in production from Dalton this season who can be had for basically free at his current ADP.

Check out the rest of the ADP’s for QB’s as well as all other positions by following the Mock Draft Army.