| Age: | 22 |
| Bats/Throws: | B/R |
| Height/Weight: | 6'2", 220 lbs |
| Position: | Second Base |
While dynasty-league players await the coronation of Yoan Moncada as a top second baseman, it seems like the White Sox are poised to turn him loose this season. Moncada’s logged more at-bats in the majors (218) than at Double-A (177). He did play 80 games at Triple-A last season prior to being called up by Chicago.
During his debut with the White Sox, Moncada started slowly like during his brief promotion with Boston the year prior. In fact, through his first two months, Moncada played 30 games with 108 at-bats, two home runs, 11 RBI and a stolen base with a paltry .176/.310/.333 slash line. He hit too many baseballs into the ground, did not benefit from much luck and hurt his legs on a couple of occasions.
However, over his last month of play, it appears Moncada started to make adjustments. From September to the last game on October 1, he played 24 games with five home runs, 11 RBI, two stolen bases and a .276/.349/.469 slash line. It’s a small sample, but a start. Of course, Byron Buxton teased fantasy owners with a strong second half or September in the past without his full season breakout, but keep this in mind.
Part of the fuel for Moncada’s stronger finish lies in cutting his ground-ball percentage to 39.7 over his last 98 at-bats and hitting more fly balls (38.2 percent) while keeping his home-run-per-fly-ball rate at 19.2 percent in the process. Although he pulled the ball less, Moncada did not lose power and his hard-hit percentage of 32.4 percent tied Jose Altuve among second basemen in September. Also, Moncada’s home-run-per-fly-ball percentage over the last month ranked higher than Robinson Cano, Jose Altuve, Rougned Odor and Jonathan Schoop. Again, It’s a small sample, but worth noting.
Here’s an illustration of Moncada’s tale of two splits with his first 30 games in one chart and his last 24 in the following one, courtesy of MLBfarm.com:
Yoan Moncada’s first 30 games
Note the disparity in ground balls compared to line drives or fly balls which seemed to inhibit his production at the onset of his promotion. This capped his power and resulted in 44 strikeouts in 108 at-bats.
Yoan Moncada’s last 24 games
Although he still hit the ball on the ground, both the fly balls and line drives increased, along with his pop-ups, but no one’s perfect. This helped Moncada hit five home runs in 98 at-bats with a much more respectable slash line and he only struck out 29 times in this stretch. Plate discipline does not come in one fell swoop in the major leagues.
In spite of Moncada’s youth, he seems primed to slot in at lead-off for the White Sox this season. Last year, the cumulative results of the team’s hitters atop the lineup resulted in 685 at-bats with 89 runs, 19 home runs, 67 RBI, 18 stolen bases and a .251/.300/.393 slash line. Yes, Chicago’s lead-off hitters only reached base 30 percent of the time last season. This does not set the bar high for Moncada to exceed.
Moncada will not turn 23 until May, but he’s shown the ability to get on base in the minors with a career .276/.381/.442 line. Expecting this type of production at his age in the majors is less than ideal. But, Moncada did lead-off 45 games at Double-A in 2016 with 27 walks in 207 plate appearances (13 percent walk rate) with 11 home runs and nine stolen bases. He hit .277/.379/.531 and in 51 games hitting first at Triple-A, Moncada recorded a .282/.380/.446 slash with eight home runs and nine steals in 195 at-bats.
Projecting Moncada to come close to his 38-percent on-base rates in the minors would be foolish. But, suggesting he’s an upgrade compared to the production the White Sox received last year even if he reaches base 33 percent of the time would not. Many will suggest Moncada does not possess the plate discipline to succeed this season and forecasting a batting average over .240 seems difficult. However, Moncada’s swinging-strike percentage of 12.6 percent last year matches Rafael Devers who many love to breakout in 2018. Freddie Freeman finished 2017 with a 12.4 swinging-strike percentage. Moncada’s contact rate of 70.6 percent proves less than ideal, but Justin Upton made a 70.8 contact percentage work last year. Last but not least, O-Swing (chase rate of pitches outside the strike zone) in which Moncada recorded a 27.9 percentage in almost in line with Andrew McCutchen’s 27.8 percent. For comparison, Javier Baez registered a 45.3 percent chase rate.
With the baseline of White Sox lead-off hitters counting statistics from last year in mind, Moncada could be in line to outperform his projections. First, here’s his forecast from three different sites:
Almost all three sites seem to agree on his home run and RBI totals. Keep in mind, the White Sox lead-off hitters recorded 89 runs and 67 RBI in 685 at-bats, so the numbers above do not seem out of line. It’s going to be a matter of how many at-bats Moncada accrues along with what he does within them. If he regresses back to the hitter from his first 108 at-bats last year, Moncada will struggle to justify his present average draft position. However, if he carries over the gains from the last 24 games with some peaks and valleys a young player will endure, he’s worth the risk.
Trying to gauge how much he will run proves the most difficult. Moncada did steal 26 bases during his 486 at-bats in Double-A and Triple-A the last two years, but he’s been caught 12 times in his attempts for a 68-percent success rate. Stolen bases seems to be one category which does not always translate for players in the majors. Even if Moncada improves upon his stolen-base efficiency, he will need to be aggressive on the bases to achieve the 24 steals ZiPS forecasts.
Prior to starting this profile, I totally expected to predict some pull back on the projections due to the shiny new toy syndrome. But, Moncada could meet the projections above. In the best case scenario, the ZiPS line represents the high side of his numbers and with health, Moncada could get there. He does struggle with left-handed pitchers, so expect to see him get some days off against a pitcher like Chris Sale, but this would actually enhance his numbers since Moncada hits much better and with more power as a left-handed hitter.
It will be a telling season in regards to what Yoan Moncada brings to the table in fantasy, but his on-base abilities along with tantalizing talent make him a worthy player to take a chance on in fantasy this year.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, MiLB.com, MLBfarm.com, Baseball-Reference.com, Steamerprojections.com, ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski, rosterresource.com