A Christmas Miracle Overdue

It was a chilly Christmas Eve afternoon in Buffalo and the Bills were playing the Dolphins in a tight game. Barack Obama was still president and Aaron Judge was still an assumed failed September callup experiment. Times were simpler... Midway through the third quarter of the aforementioned game, LeSean McCoy found paydirt, as he shaked and baked his way through a trapped left side c-gap and exploded his way through the Miami secondary. Until this past Sunday, or in other words, almost exactly 10 months later, that was the last time that Shady had crossed an NFL goal line. For fantasy owners, this has been a trying first seven weeks of the season, as his early round selection was not an investment that was made lightly. Coming off of a season in which he racked up 1,300 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, expectations for McCoy were sky high in 2017. As of now, the veteran is on pace for a mere five touchdowns, while he isn’t expected to break the 1,000-yard barrier. Panic yet not, as things are about to change. Outside of the Jets in Week 1, where he gashed them for 110 yards, McCoy and the Bills faced all top rated rush defenses prior to their Week 7 matchup with the Bucs, where he scored two touchdowns and racked up 91 rushing yards. Going forward on the schedule, the Bills have the Raiders and their 19th ranked rush defense, the Jets and their 28th ranked rush defense, the Saints and their 20th ranked rush defense, the Chargers and their 31st ranked rush defense, the Chiefs and their 25th ranked rush defense, the Patriots and their 22nd ranked rush defense, and the Colts and their 26th ranked rush defense. Get the point? While Shady has been shaky at best so far this season, there will be a progression towards his preseason expectation just like happens with guys who regress to the mean after an unexpectedly white hot start to the season. Consider him an excellent buy low candidate as your trade deadline approaches.

Zeke Eats

While I wouldn’t describe this exactly as a “blast from the past,” Ezekiel Elliott’s performance this past Sunday was certainly reminiscent of what we saw so often from him last season. In all, he gashed the 49ers – albeit a bad defense – for 219 total yards and three total touchdowns, on his way to taking an otherwise normal game and making it into an off the rails blowout. What was most important from this – aside from the massive fantasy implications – was that Zeke was once again the best player on the field for the first time since last season. The sluggishness that he showed early on this year is gone, while the Cowboys offensive line seems to have worked itself out with Jonathan Cooper settling into the starting left guard spot. Provided he can remain unsuspended, Elliott has a chance to reclaim his crown as the league’s best back. Something that all fantasy owners and Cowboys fans would love to see going forward.

Split Backfield Report

As I did last week, here I will break down backfields that are giving fantasy owners some serious confusion. Week by week I will do my best to not reiterate the same backfields ad nauseam.

Green Bay Packers – Things just got a bit more complicated out in cheese town, as the expected starter Ty Montgomery completely disappeared in favor of the rookie Aaron Jones. In Week 5, Jones first emerged with an excellent game against the Cowboys, however in Week 6 once Montgomery returned from injury, it appeared as though the two would split the backfield going forward. Now with Aaron Rodgers out indefinitely, plans have seemingly changed. The Packers look as though they will be going forward with the more conventional running back in Jones, while Montgomery will serve as the change of pace back. Don’t worry, my head is spinning too.

Minnesota Vikings – The feeling here is that while Jerick McKinnon has been by far the more productive back since Dalvin Cook went down with a season-ending knee injury, Latavius Murray is going to be force fed the “lead back” looks, as the Vikings invested in him this offseason to be just that. His Week 7 explosion of 113 rushing yards only further solidifies this thought process. Provided Murray can continue being productive like last week, keep in mind that both he and McKinnon should see enough touches to each remain viable in PPR formats at the very least.

Oakland Raiders – With Marshawn Lynch suspended for this week’s contest against the Bills, the Raiders find themselves dug squarely in a split backfield trench. Last week, after Lynch exited the game due to ejection, both Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington provided adequate fantasy production, while receiving almost an exact even split of the touches and reps. For this week, expect Washington to serve as the more traditional back, as much of his production came as a runner – including the Raiders only rushing touchdown of the day – while Richard should serve best on passing downs in PPR formats, as he finished last Sunday with more receptions (four to three) and far more receiving yards (45 to seven) than Washington.

Indianapolis Colts – Ever so slowly, coach Pagano is starting to realize that the future is now in his backfield, as for the first time all season rookie Marlon Mack out repped the veteran Frank Gore and matched him in total touches. Once given a consistent and decent number of touches weekly, Mack will prove fantasy viable in both standard and PPR formats, thanks to his dual-threat skillset. This obviously should send up flare signals and red flags to Frank Gore owners everywhere.

New England Patriots – I have gone on record several times saying that I loathe relying upon any Patriots back for fantasy production. No better proof of my position has been given than last week’s box score, which saw four Patriots running backs essentially split the reps and touches evenly. I can pacify you guys here by saying that it looks like Dion Lewis is the guy to own as a standard league back and that James White is their top PPR option, but in reality the lack of guaranteed looks and overall chaotic nature of this backfield are more than enough reasons to stay away. Remember when Mike Gillislee scored three touchdowns in Week 1? Remember when he hasn’t scored in nearly two months? This is an unpredictable situation week-to-week. It always has been, and it always will be.

NostraDomUs Predicts – Week 7 Recap

Each Wednesday, in addition to this weekly article, I also publish the DFS RB Plays of the Week – an article reserved to PlaybookPro subscribers only. For our purposes here though, in hopes of keeping things how they have been for the past couple of seasons, I will consider those DFS selections as my "NostraDomUs Predicts" selections that I have been providing in this article for the past two years.

So to make things clear – I will make my running back picks in the other article for the upcoming week, and then I will recap the previous week's picks in this article. At the bottom of the page I will give a running season-long tally of my predictive record.

* Week 7 RB Predictions *

Elite Plays

Ezekiel Elliott, DAL – I hate to take too much credit for this pick, as the evidence for Elliott’s Week 7 dominance was obvious. The Niners did and still do boast one of the worst rush defenses of all time, while the Cowboys have the league’s best offensive line. Last season Elliott rushed for 138 and a touchdown on these same Niners, while in this season’s matchup the Cowboys were even more well-rested coming off of a Week 6 bye. I wasn’t surprised by his three touchdowns and 219 total yards in the slightest.

Kareem Hunt, KC – He failed to get into the end zone in Week 7, however his 117 total yards and four added receptions and subsequent PPR points made his start on DraftKings more than worthwhile. While I consider Hunt matchup proof, keep in mind that he may be a guy to stay away from this week as the Chiefs take on the Broncos and their top-rated defense.

Leonard Fournette, JAX – I’m not counting Fournette, as he was a late scratch for Sunday. Had he played, I’m sure he would have dominated as expected (see: T.J. Yeldon’s explosion in Week 7).  

Affordable Plays

Melvin Gordon, LAC – It admittedly was a bit risky to bet on Gordon last week against the Broncos and their elite defense, but considering his high usage rate and previous success against them in Week 1, I felt that his discounted price tag would be worth it. That was not the case and Gordon ended up a bust in Week 7.

Adrian Peterson, ARI – After getting our hopes up in Week 6, Peterson reverted back to the downtrodden version of himself in Week 7, despite having an excellent matchup against the Rams 29th ranked rush defense. Rarely am I captivated by one-week wonders, but I thought an exception for AP was warranted. It’s back to the drawing board for the Cardinals.

Bargain Play(s)

LeGarrette Blount, PHI – Another swing and miss for NostraDomUs here, as Blount just couldn’t get going against the Redskins this past Monday night. I prefaced his selection by saying that Washington was no walk in the park, but I believed that he would persevere considering the fact that he has performed well against top rush defenses already in the previous two weeks. Expect him to have a better time against the Cowboys weak defense in Week 8.   

Flyer Play(s)

Orleans Darkwa, NYG – To top off my underwhelming week of running back predictions, Darkwa burned me too. Seattle shutdown the Giants and their offense of the walking wounded, which led most of the focus on stuffing the fourth year running back. While he was unproductive, it should be noted that I was at least correct in saying that Darkwa has become the Giants featured back. Small victories people…

** NostraDomUs’ 2017 Running Back Predictions Record (NFL year to date) **

Right: (36) Wrong: (31)

Prophetic Percentage: (54%)