I’ll admit it. Like many of us, I’m still in fantasy football mode, and that contributed to the overall theme of this article. In fantasy football, you can get into some serious trouble by just looking at the box scores. Instead of throwing the television remote at the wall or complaining to your wife that Kareem Hunt only scored you 8.6 points on 18 touches, take a deeper dive and rationalize the situation. The box score won’t tell you that he lost 42 rushing yards and a touchdown on three holding calls, which would have turned that 8.6 points into a highly-respectable 18.8 points.

This same stigma plays into fantasy baseball, both in-season and preseason. How so? Giancarlo Stanton could go 0-4, but he could have made four hard outs. Whether he grounded out to the pitcher or was robbed of a home run, the box score simply marks it as 0-for-1. If you take a look at his at-bats, you would see that he smoked the ball 118 miles per hour—per Statcast, of course—at a desired launch angle, but the wind knocked the ball down. Knowing this in-season will help not only your season-long teams, but DFS as well.

During the preseason, we certainly must analyze a player’s numbers from the year before, but it’s important to look into those numbers, beyond just the home runs, RBIs, win-loss record and earned run average, because you can reveal key nuggets that could perhaps give you an edge over your competition. For example, consider the following player from 2017:

In 136 games last year, Player A set career-highs in home runs (18), runs scored (75), RBI (80), batting average (.330), OBP (.380) and slugging percentage (.506). He is just 26 years old, so he’s entering the prime of his career.

If he can stay healthy, this player seems like a prime target, right? Coming off an excellent year, absolutely, why not buy into the fact that he posted great numbers and he’s entering his prime. His BABIP (batting average on batted balls in play) was over 50 points higher than his career average, meaning he was much luckier last year than years prior. Are you still as interested? Looking solely at the numbers from last year could mislead you into overpaying for a regression-prone player.

Oh yeah, that player was Chicago’s Avisail Garcia.

The same thought process applies to pitchers. Compare the two players below and see which player is more attractive.

 

W-L

ERA

WHIP

K/9

BAA

PLAYER A

8-15

4.69

1.44

7.31

.250

PLAYER B

5-7

3.49

1.23

7.22

.200


Player A was Tyler Chatwood last year with the Rockies. Looking at those numbers, I would attempt to avoid him in all formats, even the deepest of NL-only leagues! Do you know who Player B is? It’s Chatwood, but when he pitched away from Coors Field. As most pitchers are, he’s better away from the hitter-friendly confines of Colorado’s stadium. Why does this matter? Well, the Chicago Cubs just inked him to a deal, meaning he won’t make 12 starts in Colorado.

At the very least, consider the BABIP of offensive players and FIP (fielding independent pitching) of pitchers, because those two stats alone are very telling. As we saw with Garcia, his highest BABIP of his career translated into a career year, but when that mark regresses this year, what kind of player is he then? For a pitcher, the further the deviation between ERA and FIP will give you a quick synopsis of a pitcher’s luck that year. An ERA far lower than FIP signifies a pitcher was more lucky than not in that year, whereas an ERA higher than a FIP illustrates that a pitcher was more unlucky in that year. Consider the examples below:

 

2017 ERA

2017 FIP

Lucky or Unlucky in 2017?

Robbie Ray

2.89

3.72

Lucky

Chris Archer

4.07

3.40

Unlucky


Yes, that’s a very simple approach to the metric, but it does help begin to lay the groundwork for further examining the player into what their impact—luck aside—in 2018. From there, take a look at their career marks and you can find further clarity into just how lucky or unlucky a player was in any particular year.

FA Nation, I can’t stress it enough. Looking only at the overall numbers from last year will not only cause you to overvalue players, but you’ll miss significant opportunities to unearth serious value in guys that are poised for much improved, perhaps even breakout 2018 campaigns.