Cutting right to the chase, here are the three most critical rules you must follow when getting ready for your fantasy baseball auction draft. Rule Number 1: Have a plan and fallback plans. Rule Number 2: Do NOT violate Rule Number 1. Rule Number 3: Do not violate Rule Number 2. You get the point. If you are trying to strategize while hearing “going twice” in your ear, you may as well just make your donation and exit stage right. But have no fear! This column is designed to give you the tools you need to make a "lucid, intelligent, well thought-out” auction plan that will not be overruled (yes, we are channeling Judge Chamberlain Haller of My Cousin Vinny but we digress).
Ok, without further delay, here are a set of rules to live by when conducting an auction fantasy baseball draft:
Create a Budget: We cannot stress this enough. You need a realistic plan and you need to stick to it. Are you going stars and scrubs (a few high priced and many very low)? Are you going pure balance such that no one is above $30? Or maybe you are willing to punt one position (i.e., two $1 catchers). Whatever your plan is, if you do your homework and really work at the budget, then you will have a good plan and a good shot at your league.
Create a “Plan B” and a “Plan C” Budget: No matter how good your plan is, there is a pretty good chance your league will throw you a curveball. Let’s say you are playing in an AL-only and budget $40 for either Trout or Altuve. Then let’s say both go for $45. Rather than chase into the stratosphere out of desperation, you do not need to stress if you already have a Plan B that says instead of Trout/Altuve and a $10 player for $50, you will take two $25 players from a pre-determined list. No panic, no worries, you just pivot to Plan B which, if you did your homework, will also be a solid plan. You should also have a Plan C but we think you get the point of how that works.
Stick to a Budget: It is so tempting to buy every shiny toy you see. Ooh a Mike Trout, I need that. Ooh, Altuve, yeah I want him. Wow, an Aaron Judge, gimme gimme. Look, Stanton is there too! You get the point. Exercise restraint. Your budget might have a line item for one or at most two such players but no way you can pay for all four. It is tempting to push past your budget for what you want but in the end, it will cripple you. If your plan is good, the results will follow. Stay the course!
Track Your Purchases Against Budget: Of course, it is impossible to predict to the dollar how much players will cost. Thus, you will be under budget a bit and over budget a bit here and there. Make sure you track exactly where you stand so your bidding can be informed and so you can make the most of what you do have. For example, if you budgeted $40 for one of Trout, Stanton or Altuve and you roster Stanton at $36, you have $4 more with which to work. On your tracking sheet (or excel spreadsheet), add $4 to other places so you know you can now go the extra buck or two. Similarly, if you paid $42 for Stanton in the above example, you know you need to be more careful and need to take $2 from your shopping list somewhere to balance your books.
Do Not Compete for the Last Seat on the Train: Stated another way -- do not be stuck in a bidding war for the last item on the shelf that multiple owners feel they must have. The results can be devastating and can happen to even the very best. Without naming names, one Tout Warrior was stuck in a bidding war for the last speed guy and ended up spending $19 on Nick Punto – yes that Nick Punto, the one with a .245 career average who never hit more than 4 taters in a season. Here is a simple, oft-repeated example: If there are 4 reliable closers in the pool, roster one of the first 3 even if you need to pay a couple of bucks over budget to avoid the “Punto Moment.”
Get in to the Bidding Early and Often: We have done many auctions. Without fail, at some time during each and every one of those auctions, a player goes dramatically below the value we have put on him. Staying in the action has two advantages. First, it allows you the possibility of getting a great value when the crickets come early. Indeed, in a 12-team league, 276 players will be auctioned. Thus, you only need lightning to strike less than .4% of the time to make it worth your while. Second, getting involved often (not every time of course) allows you to stay sharp and involved. It is akin to fielders who stay sharp when the pitcher works fast as opposed to those who lose focus when the pitcher takes a long time between pitches.
Vary Your Bidding Method and Cadence: The bottom line here is you do not want to be predictable. It is very much like poker. You do not want the other owners to be able to tell when you will raise and when you will fold (or when you are bluffing). If you really want a player, sometimes you should bid early, sometimes you should jump in late. If you always jump in late on players you end up buying, other owners will know that they will be able to bid you up and cost you precious resources. We also recommend that you alter how you bid. For example, sometimes be loud and sometimes soft. Sometimes bid with the precise number, sometimes with an “up one” and sometimes with a hand gesture. All of those differences will make you less predictable and help you save your powder.
Make Jump Bids: There is a tendency to just go up $1 or one unit at a time during auctions. Sometimes budgets are tight and you have no choice. However, at most times in the draft you can be aggressive. Early in the draft if you are bidding on a guy that is likely to go at $30 and the bidding is 15, 16 bang it to 25. You might get crickets or you might chase all but one out as they unsuspecting owners are caught off guard and you end up buying at $27 and saving money. Another good use of the jump bid is to jump directly to a milestone number and freeze your opponents. If you think a player is a $30 but could go higher, when the bidding reaches 27 or 28, jump straight to 30 in order to try and get your guy. It works far more often that you would think.
Never Price Enforce: If you are listening to us at all, you have a budget. Thus, you should never bid big money on a player you do not want. I do not care if you value Catcher X at $20 and you can get him for $18 if you only budgeted $4 for catchers. Price enforcing at $18 will cause you complete chaos as you try to create a new plan on the fly (unless of course, $18 on a catcher was Plan B as described above but we assume you get that). Yes, there are a handful of fantasy baseball players that can win in that kind of chaos but they are few and far between. We have won LABR, Tout Wars and FSTA and we do not believe we can be effective in such chaos.
Manage the End Game: In the end game you have to know how much money you have left, how much money other teams have left and most importantly, know how much money your key adversary has left. By the way, your key adversary is not the person with whom you talk trash, s/he is the fantasy owner that needs what you need. If there is one good catcher left and you and Ms. A both need a catcher, it makes sense to call out that catcher IF and only IF you have more money than Ms. A. If not, wait to see if Ms. A. spends her money on another need and thereby gives you the financial advantage.
Know Your League Rules: For example, in LABR and Tout Wars, there is an unlimited disabled list. Thus, it is a very good strategy to roster injured but potentially valuable later players late in the auction. If you can spend just a few bucks and hoard Zach Britton or Jimmy Nelson, why not do it? Every league has nuances that must be taken into account. Know them, exploit them, gain an advantage from them. For more on this topic, click here.
Follow the SMART System and the Rules of Engagement: This one is optional but recommended. For all the details on this system, click here.
Final Thoughts: The above are all good rules but most importantly, have fun! Fantasy baseball is a great escape, a great opportunity for competition and camaraderie, and something you joined to have fun. As the Cat in the Hat says “It is fun to have fun but you have to know how”. Now you know how.