Before the NCAA Tournament Round of 64 games get underway on Thursday, let’s find some March Madness first round predictions and picks to lock in. As you fill out those NCAA Tournament brackets, consider these college basketball predictions whether you want to wager on the games or try to nail an upset pick. 

 

 

 

These NCAA Tournament picks for Thursday, March 21 feature the Drake vs. Washington State, Samford vs. Kansas, and Akron vs. Creighton matchups. All odds and lines are subject to change before tip-offs, so be sure to shop around to find the best numbers. Good luck!

*Editor’s Note: Check out the rest of Servo’s content that he’s put out this week, as they all pertain to NCAA Tournament picks!

March Madness First Round Predictions & NCAA Tournament Picks: Thursday, 3/21

Drake vs. Washington State Prediction: Bulldogs Moneyline (-118 at FanDuel)

A year ago, Drake nearly pulled off the upset of Miami (FL) in the first round. The Bulldogs led by eight points with five minutes to go and had the lead with less than three minutes remaining. Miami eventually came back to win en route to a Final Four run while Drake was sent packing. Let’s back the Bulldogs to avenge last year’s loss with a first-round win vs. Washington State. 

This may be categorized as an “upset” in the bracket with Drake as a No. 10 seed and Washington State as a No. 7. However, the sportsbooks have the Bulldogs as the slight favorite on the moneyline and spread as of this writing. The key for Drake is having a star player to lean on in Tucker DeVries. 

The 6-foot-7 wing playmaker averaged 21.8 PPG this season and anchored an offense that put up 80.5 PPG (35th-best among Division I schools). DeVrie only had three points in last year’s loss to Miami, so we can count on him being much better this time around. The Bulldogs also shoot well from three-point range as a team (36.5%) and boast the best defensive rebounding rate in the country. That elite ability to grab defensive boards will limit Washington State’s second-chance opportunities offensively. 

As for Washington State, it comes into the Tournament with the arrow pointing slightly down. Since the Cougars upset Arizona on the road in late February, they are just 3-3 over the past six games with the only wins coming against below-average teams (Stanford, UCLA, and USC). They let the Pac-12 regular season title slip away with those late-season losses and saw some negative regression in multiple ways. 

It’s also worth noting that this game will be played in Omaha, Nebraska – which is about two hours from Drake’s campus in Iowa and a much farther trip for Washington State’s fans. This could end up being a glaring home-court advantage with the Drake fans giving their team an edge right away. 

 

 

 

Samford vs. Kansas Prediction: Bulldogs +7.5 (-120 at BetMGM)

This has been an upset pick I’ve been on since the bracket came out. If you missed it, check out my previous in-depth breakdown of Samford vs. Kansas. We now have official word from head coach Bill Self that Kansas star Kevin McCullar Jr. will be out for the entire NCAA Tournament. That’s massive news as the Jayhawks have to make do without their best overall player on both ends. Center Hunter Dickinson, meanwhile, has been practicing and seems likely to play after sitting out the last game. 

The McCullar absence, though, is glaring for a team that lacked depth already. Kansas has struggled to replace McCullar’s contributions on both offense and defense in the past month with fill-ins Nick Timberlake and Elmarko Jackson underwhelming. The Jayhawks are just 3-7 ATS and 4-6 SU over the past 10 games with McCullar in and out of the lineup. This isn’t the same Kansas team without him, even if Dickinson plays. 

Then we get to this unique matchup vs. Samford, which is tougher to prep for than you’d think. Samford plays at a super-fast pace (14th in CBB) and shoots a ton of three-pointers while making nearly 40% of them. They also play aggressive defense with a full-court press. That will put more pressure on Kansas’ inexperienced ball-handlers with McCullar out. 

Plus, in contrast to Kansas, this Samford team uses a deep rotation of 10+ guys who will be pestering the Jayhawks all game. That gets even tougher when you consider this game is being played in altitude in Salt Lake City. If you aren’t convinced yet, check out some of these interesting trends. The Southern Conference champion, as is Samford, has continually outperformed expectations in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. 

Last year, Furman upset Virginia as a No. 13 seed. Two years ago, Chattanooga lost by just one point to Illinois. The SoCon champ is now 5-0 ATS in the first round in the past five Tournaments. Going back further, the Southern league champ is 9-4 ATS in the first round over the last 13 brackets. Then we have Kansas, who is just 11-14-1 ATS as a favorite this year – the second-worst mark among Tournament teams. 

 

 

 

Akron vs. Creighton Prediction: Zips +13.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Creighton should win this game outright to advance but don’t overlook Akron to cover the spread. Akron head coach John Groce has consistently gotten the best out of his teams in the NCAA Tournament. Groce is 4-0 ATS in the first round over his career with Akron, Illinois, and Ohio. That includes two upset victories back when he was with Ohio. He’s also 7-1 ATS overall in the NCAA Tournament. 

Akron is a veteran and experienced team, starting four seniors with two more coming off the bench. Enrique Freeman and Ali Ali, in particular, can present matchup problems with their size and versatility at the wing/power forward spots. As good as Creighton is, this team lacks depth in the frontcourt and on the wing to keep Freeman/Ali Ali in check for a full game. 

Plus, the Bluejays’ offense is very reliant on three-point shooting – which can be volatile if their shooters go cold at any point. Akron also plays at a slower pace (268th in the country) and will try to use that to its advantage to keep Creighton from running in transition and stretching a lead out. 

Creighton, meanwhile, is 206th in pace this season and tends to be methodical on offense with longer possessions to get the right shots. The Bluejays also have shown to be content to play at a slower pace when the opponent warrants it. This should lead to a lower-scoring game where it immediately gives an edge to the underdog to cover a large spread. 

Two years ago, Groce’s Akron team faced UCLA in the first round in a similar low-scoring, slower-paced game. The Zips lost 57-53 but covered as 13.5-point underdogs. Could we see a repeat scenario? A few other interesting trends to note. MAC teams have exceeded expectations in the Round of 64 in recent seasons, going 6-1 ATS in first-round matchups over the past seven NCAA Tournaments. 

The Zips were a part of that the last time they were in the bracket, as mentioned above. Then there’s this stat for Creighton head coach Greg McDermott. As the higher seed in first-round games, McDermott’s teams are just 2-4-1 ATS with none of his opening-round victories coming by more than 10 points. 

 

 

 

Other March Madness First Round Predictions: NCAA Tournament Round of 64