The 2024 NCAA Tournament is upon us! As you fill out those March Madness brackets and enter office pool contests, let’s take a closer look at some March Madness longshot bets to consider. 

Everyone likes to root for the surprising Cinderella story, and these would certainly fall in that category. Can New Mexico or Drake make a run to the Sweet 16? Or how about some dark horse Final Four sleepers to look out for? 

Let’s dive into it with these NCAA Tournament predictions as they pertain to March Madness longshots. 

 

 

 

*Editor’s Note: Servo has been making March Madness betting picks all week long, and you can check out some of the rest of his content below!

NCAA Tournament Predictions: 2024 March Madness Longshots

March Madness Longshot Bet: New Mexico To Make Sweet 16 (+250 at FanDuel)

New Mexico may be a No. 11 seed, but it’s a lot better than that number indicates. The Lobos rate among the top 26 teams in the NET (22), KenPom (23), and BartTorvik (26) when factoring in advanced metrics. They are the highest-rated double-digit seed in all of those metrics by a considerable margin as well. 

Simply put, New Mexico is underseeded as a No. 11 should be looked at in a different light. With that being said, don’t be surprised if the Lobos make a run to the Sweet 16 or beyond. It’s notable that Vegas has New Mexico as the favorite in its first-round matchup vs. Clemson, who went one-and-done in the ACC Tournament recently. Check out my more in-depth breakdown of how and why New Mexico can win that game. 

The Lobos’ top-tier backcourt combo of Jaelan House, Jamal Mashburn, and Donovan Dent are live to string together wins just like they did to win the Mountain West Tournament. Next up would be the Baylor vs. Colgate winner. Assuming it’s Baylor, this would likely be a high-scoring shootout between two potent offenses. 

Though Baylor can score it plenty, it has cracks defensively and less experience than the veteran New Mexico squad. Plus, the Bears have a history of early exits in the Tournament. Outside of that 2021 National Championship season, Baylor has lost in the first or second round in five of its previous six appearances.

 

 

 

March Madness Longshot Bet: Drake To Make Sweet 16 (+575 at BetMGM)

It’s not often we get a double-digit seed favored to win its first-round matchup, but that’s currently the case with No. 10 seed Drake vs. Washington State. If you missed it, see my deeper breakdown of why Drake can pull the “upset” there. 

In short, the Bulldogs nearly (and should’ve) beat Miami last year in the first round but let the lead slip away late. They’ll be motivated to get it done this time while leaning on star Tucker DeVries, one of the best mid-major players in the country. Drake would then face the winner of Iowa State vs. South Dakota State in the second round. If we pencil in Iowa State, this is still a matchup that Drake can get past. 

As dominant as the Cyclones’ defense is (best in CBB, per KenPom), their offense may do them in at some point this Tournament. Iowa State can go through prolonged scoreless stretches at times and remains vulnerable when facing higher-scoring offenses. Drake averages 80.5 PPG (35th in CBB) while the Cyclones are just 5-6 this season when giving up 70+ points. 

The path is there for Drake to make a run to the Sweet 16. It’s not unchartered territory for a Missouri Valley to do it either. Loyola-Chicago famously made the Final Four in 2018 as an 11-seed and then got to the Sweet 16 in 2021 as well. Before that, Wichita State made two Sweet 16 appearances in three seasons. 

 

 

 

March Madness Longshot Bet: Michigan State To Make Final Four (+2200 at BetMGM)

The West region is seemingly the most wide-open with the weakest No. 1 seed in North Carolina. The other top seeds (Arizona, Baylor, Alabama, Saint Mary’s) all have their flaws that could result in earlier exits than expected. This is the region where it’s worth taking a chance on March Madness longshots to make the Sweet 16, Elite Eight, or Final Four. That brings us to Michigan State.

The Spartans are very boom-or-bust and, admittedly, easily could lose in the first round to Mississippi State. If they survive that, though, Tom Izzo’s team is live to upset UNC in the Round of 32 to start a deep run. Despite a weak 18-13 regular-season record, Michigan State is rated higher in advanced metrics than its mediocre results indicate. KenPom (18th), BartTorvik (23rd), and the NET Rankings (24th) all have Sparty as a top-25 team in the country. 

While it has underperformed relative to expectation this year, Michigan State still boasts a few key ingredients that can lead to March success. The Spartans are a veteran-laden team with seniors Tyson Walker, AJ Hoggard, and Malik Hall providing trusted experience. All three were the core from last year’s Sweet 16 team, too. Michigan State also has a top-10 defense in the sport and can ride that physical, defensive intensity to the Final Four. 

 

 

 

March Madness Longshot Bet: Nevada To Make Final Four (+3000 at BetMGM)

Alright, let’s get really bold with this last pick. We have seen a team seeded No. 7 or worse reach the Final Four in nine of the last 10 NCAA Tournaments. Sometimes it’s random, sometimes it’s the case of a team being underseeded. Either way, let’s roll the dice with Nevada. 

The Wolfpack fall in that underseeded category as a No. 10 seed despite being ranked 34th in the NET, 34th at KenPom, and 32nd at BartTorvik. That should put them as a No. 8 or 9 seed and not with double-digits in front of their name. Nonetheless, let’s get down to why Nevada can bust brackets and reach the Final Four. 

Head coach Steve Alford has some proven NCAA Tournament experience on his resume, previously leading UCLA to three Sweet 16’s in the past decade. Alford knows how to get it done in March and has shown he can exceed expectations in the bracket. Nevada boasts a top-tier guard duo of Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear with skills that complement each other well. The Wolfpack also feature one of the most experienced rosters in the sport, with six seniors in the rotation. 

Overall, they are top 40 in both offense and defense – which is much more balanced than most double-digit seeds. All of the top seeds in Nevada’s region are volatile and could easily get upset early on. Don’t be surprised if any or all of North Carolina, Arizona, Baylor, and Alabama get bounced early to open the floodgates for a dark horse in that quadrant of the bracket. If the Wolfpack can get by Dayton in the first round, Arizona awaits in the Round of 32 and they can squeak out a win there. 

Arizona hasn’t been playing its best basketball lately with the loss to Oregon in the Pac-12 Tournament exemplifying that. Last year, San Diego State broke the stigma of Mountain West teams underperforming in the NCAA Tournament. This year, Nevada can continue the trend. BartTorvik has the ‘Pack as the 15th-best team in the country since the start of February, going 10-2 in their last 12 games. At these longshot odds, it’s worth a dart throw on Nevada to go deep.