MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night 127 - Werdum vs. Volkov

The 127th installment of UFC Fight Night rolls into London on Saturday with a midday start for us (B)East Coasters here in the US. Fabricio Werdum takes on Alexander Volkov in the main event, while hometown boy, Jimi Manuwa takes on Jan Blachowicz in the co-main event. We got some big boys throwing down here, but there is good amount of well-matched fights on the undercard as well.

DraftKings put out their salaries before the betting lines were released, so there is some value to be had on this card, so pay close attention to the DK salaries, comparing them to the betting lines as the event grows closer. There is one fighter in particular who presents an incredible amount of value for us, and we can only assume that he’ll be very highly owned. There are 3 fighters on the card that are better than everyone else and in a tier of their own. You want to have at least 2 of these guys in every lineup that you make. I’ve constructed a few lineups where I can roster all 3 of them, and I’ll be leaning heavily on those lineups on Saturday.

As always, use the in-depth analysis and insight that is presented in this preview article to formulate your own opinions of the value of each of these fighters, and construct your lineups based on your perceived value once you’ve read through this article. My optimal lineups at the bottom of the article should be used as an example as to how to construct your lineups, not to simply copy and paste. As always, I’ll be live Tweeting during the fights, and you can follow me on Twitter @TJ_Scott_MMA. This will also be the first event where we have released our new Premium Chat function through our webpage! This is an awesome tool to use when it comes to giving you all - the premium subscribers - inside information when it comes to lineup creation, bets I like, and other info to take into account before and during the fights are going on. Please join me Saturday in the Live Chat to ask questions and root our lineups on!

Undercard

Snapshot:

The 1st fight of the night is a Lightweight bout that has one fighter making his 2nd appearance in the UFC cage, while the other is making his UFC debut by taking the fight on a weeks notice, replacing the injured Alex Reyes, and also moving up a weight class. So to say that this fight has many variables that will be tough to predict is an understatement. You know that I don’t like to invest heavily in fighters (or matchups) that we don’t know much about, and this one falls into that category, but I do think there is some value here, and I don’t believe that either of these guys will be very highly owned due to the fact that they are from overseas, haven’t fought in front of UFC fans before (save for 1 fight), and have fight games that are relatively unknown to the casual North American UFC fan. Low ownership is good for our GPP LU’s, one week’s notice is bad, moving up a weight class is bad, and when you combine all of this it makes for a difficult fight to predict.

Nad Narimani (10-2) is 30 and he’s making his UFC debut. The Brit won the Cage Warriors featherweight title by taking out uber-hyped Paddy Pimblett in his last fight back in April of last year - almost a full year ago. He has quite a bit of experience fighting for Cage Warriors and has also racked up a bunch of finishes in his career. But it remains to be seen if he’s UFC-caliber.

Haqparast (8-2) is 22 and he’s 0-1 in the UFC. The Afghani lost his UFC decision to Marcin Held on short notice but prior to that had racked up eight-straight wins on the regional circuit, all by TKO. He had 6 TKO/KO finishes in a row on the regional circuit from June of 2013 to February of 2016. He’s got very good footwork, quick hands with an impressive left hook that dropped Held, and has the raw talent to be a successful UFC fighter at some point in his career, but I don’t think this is the time. He’s a nice prospect but he needs to improve his grappling based on what we saw in the Held fight.  

This is kind of a tricky fight to predict and one that could have the winning fighter on a winning GPP lineup, but it is a risky play for sure. I like Haqparast’s energy, cardio, and striking ability, but his ground game scares the hell out of me. His youth and inexperience is almost a good thing when it comes to the magnitude of fighting in the UFC, as he may not put a lot of pressure on himself and perform over his true abilities.

If I’m investing in anyone here it’s most likely going to be Narimani. He’s fought on a big stage before in Cage Warriors for a belt against a rising local star in Paddy Pimblett, so I don’t think the bright lights will negatively affect him the way that they have for so many other debuting fighters. Yes, the UFC is as big as it gets, but in Europe Cage Warriors is a pretty big deal, especially when you’re fighting Paddy for a belt in his hometown. Narimani has an “in your face” style that is fun to watch as a fan. He’ll continue to press forward, testing his opponents chin, cardio, and will all at the same time. He has a winging style when throwing his hooks, but they do land, and I don’t foresee Haqsparat having the best striking defense that we’ve ever seen, so I suspect that Narimani will have success sneaking his hooks through his foe’s porous defense.

If Narimani had a full camp, and this fight was taking place at 145, then I’d be 100% on board the Englishman’s train from a DK perspective. But I am concerned about the short notice and jump up in weight class. How big of an effect will these factors have on him? That’s the million dollar question. I will definitely have exposure to Narimani in my GPP lineups, as he has a very attractive upside to his game, especially with his takedown ability and Haqsparat’s weak takedown defense and ground game. This should be a fun one to open the card, and this is a good fight to target for your GPP lineups, and I’ll be leaning towards Narimani here, especially with his DK salary at $7,900, with a small exposure to the German-based fighter, Haqsparat.

PICK: Narimani, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:   N/A

GPP: Narimani (7.5/10): In normal circumstances I’d rank him higher due to his well-rounded style and ability to get his opponents to the mat, but on short notice, up a weight class, it makes me a little gun-shy.

Haqsparat (6.5/10): He’s got good hands, so you never know. I just don’t know too much about him.

Snapshot:

The 2nd fight is definitely a great fight to target for our GPP lineups! Dmitry Sosnovskiy is making his highly anticipated debut under the UFC banner. He’s taking on Mark Godbeer (13-3) who is 34 and 2-1 in the UFC. The English ladd is coming off of back-to-back wins over Walt Harris and Daniel Spitz, with the win over Harris coming via DQ. Godbeer likes a war and wants to stand toe to toe with his foe and see who falls down first. Throughout his career Godbeer has shown he has striking skills and knockout power but he gets tagged quite a bit himself and has been finished a few times. His ground game isn’t very good, and I’m afraid that this is where Sos, an AKA product, is going to end up taking this fight.

Dmitry Sosnovskiy (10-0) is 28 and he’s making his UFC debut hailing from Moscow, but currently training at the heralded American Top Team in Coconut Creek, Florida. The Russian is undefeated in his career and is coming off of three-straight knockout wins. The downside to this run is that he hasn’t fought in almost 3 years - last beating another tomato can back in May of 2015! This layoff could prove to be a factor, but I’m confident the incredibly experienced camp of ATT has him prepared for a fight better than he ever has before. He looks like a really good prospect but the long layoff is a big red flag.

Sos will want to get this one to the ground, and quickly. He should not mess around with Godbeer on the feet, and I don’t think the rising star in head coaching, Mike Brown, would let this lapse in Fight IQ happen. The question now becomes; can Godbeer defend the takedown? If he can he has a chance at landing some punches and putting Sos away, especially without the familiarity and flow of striking being present in his game early on in the fight.

From a DFS perspective I like Sos’s upside here. As we all know, we are looking for fighters who can effectively score in all aspects of the fight game, but ultimately it is going to be the takedowns, advances, and ground strikes that get you the 115+ point DK nights. Sos has a game to do that, but it comes with a big risk! He’s been away from the cage for 3 years! If Godbeer can keep this fight upright, then he should win, but I don’t think Godbeer has the wrestling chops to keep this one off the mat. Look for Sos to get this one to the ground early, advance position, and deliver heavy top strikes before the ref jumps in.

I’ll have some exposure to both fighters in GPP’s (more heavily on Sosnovskiy), and I’ll avoid in Cash due to the unpredictability of these big boys going at it.

PICK: Sosnovskiy, TKO, 1st

Cash Game:   N/A - May shift closer to fight time and have Sos in one???

GPP: Sos (8/10): Solid upside here with his ground chops, but ring rust scares me.

Godbeer (7/10): Not a bad play for $7,500! Definitely worth the gamble in GPP’s, and I don’t think he’ll be highly owned.

Snapshot:

Ahhh, the enigma that is Stevie Ray. He’s looked great in the Octagon, and he’s also looked pedestrian in the Octagon. Which one are we going to get? Ray (21-7) is 27-years-old and has a 5-2 record in the UFC. He’s got great hands and very good footwork, but Paul Felder’s power was too much for him, and he was taken out back and put in his place by the heavy-handed American. His wins over Ross Pearson and Joe Lauzon don’t look as good on paper as they used to as we’ve watched both of them start to fade with age, and the results of fighting at the highest level in the world for 10+ years rears it’s evil head. It’s unfortunate, but it’s reality and it’s bound to happen to every fighter sooner or later. So in retrospect, Ray may have looked better than he really is in those fights, and combine that with the recent dramatic loss to Felder on his home turf, and you have a highly questionable 3 year period for a 27 year old fighter who should be hitting his prime now or at least within the next few years. Ray was looking like a top-15 lightweight but he’ll now need a few more wins to get back in that conversation.

“Ragin” Kajan Johnson (22-12-1) is 33 and he’s 3-1 in the UFC. The Canadian is on a surprising three-fight win streak at the moment with a KO win over Adriano Martins in his last outing in September of last year. Before that win he hadn’t fought since 2015, and had a 2 year layoff between UFC wins. He had 2 surgeries during that time period, but it may have been a good layoff for him. He’s been able to avoid the heavy damage that fighting in the UFC inevitably produces, and also avoided a solid amount of wear that that the body receives during the tedious grind of training for fights and the simple task of training in between fights. This is great, but when his chin has been tested it hasn’t performed too well, and I don’t foresee Johnson finding some miracle training technique that will help build the brain’s tolerance for concussive strikes.  

When looking at Johnson’s pace, technique, and overall gameplan, it’s one that is deceiving when trying to determine it’s worth within the confines of the DraftKings’ scoring system. Yes, he’s frustrating to watch, he doesn’t strike with a high volume (matter of fact, he strikes at a pretty low pace), and his propensity for circling on the outside of the cage make his fights almost unbearable to watch. That is, until he lands that shot that staggers his foe and his given the chance to pounce. His pace causes his opponents to get frustrated and lulled to sleep, and eventually they let their guard down, and this is where the “Ragin” Kajan jumps on the opportunity to finish. His most recent fights are impressive from that aspect, but they also aren’t at the same talent level that Stevie Ray is. I think Johnson has been able to look good with such a gross style of striking is because his opponents were matched perfectly for his style. I don’t foresee Stevie Ray allowing Johnson to dictate the pace and place of this fight. He’s on another level compared to Johnson’s prior opponents.

Johnson’s chin will be tested, and it won’t be pretty. Depending on Johnson’s will to win, this will either end in the 1st or 2nd courtesy of a Stevie Ray barrage punches, or it will be Ray delivering a hamburger to Johnson’s face in a unanimous decision victory.
 

PICK: Ray, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game:   Ray (7/10): I could see Ray being a valuable Cash play, but has his head/mentality recovered since being thrashed by Paul Felder.

GPP: Ray (7/10): Not loving this matchup from a GPP perspective. The ceiling is lower than we’d like to see, and the odds of victory aren’t great either. The only thing this one has going for it is the low anticipated ownership of these 2 fighters, and Johnson’s questionable chin.

Snapshot:

Magomed Ankalaev (9-0) is 25 and he’s making his UFC debut. He’s currently sitting at a -650 favorite in this one, and has a price tag of $9,200, which actually isn’t bad when you compare his salary against his betting odds. The Russian is undefeated in his MMA career and is coming off of three-straight knockout wins. He has vicious ground and pound and seems to carry bricks for hands.

Paul Craig (9-2) is 30 and he’s 1-2 in the UFC. The Scot won his UFC debut with an exciting submission over Henrique da Silva but has since lost back-to-back fights via TKO to Tyson Pedro and Khalil Rountree. He has really good submissions but his striking is not very good and his chin can’t handle punishment at this level. Watching Craig take heavy shots is like watching a dog get beat and doesn’t provide any offense during the beating. It just sits there and takes the beating, waiting for it to be over. It was painful to watch against Rountree, and it will be painful to watch against Ankalaev. Craig just can’t take a punch. His face and pain threshold just weren’t built to fight men like Rountree and Ankalaev.

The Russian is probably the most hyped DFS fighter on the card, and will be very highly owned. I’ll have exposure to the Russian in all formats, as we are getting very good value for a $9,200 salary. This is an example of some of the advantages that are present when DraftKings puts out salaries before the betting odds are posted. It adds another element to the process, and is a valuable factor to analyze.

This will be a quick and vicious beating. Take Ankalaev in all formats.

PICK: Ankalaev, TKO, 1st

Cash Game: Ankalaev (10/10): Love the upside, odds of winning, and reasonable salary.

GPP: Ankalaev (9.5/10): Everything I said above!

Snapshot:

The 5th fight of the night pits Danny Henry against former WSOF stud Hakeem Dawodu. Dawodu (7-0-1) is 26 and he’s making his UFC debut, but don’t treat him like your typical UFC rookie. The Canadian is one of the featherweight division’s top prospects as he was undefeated in his time in WSOF, including a notable win over Steven Siler in his last fight. He has excellent striking skills, including serious knockout power at 145lbs. He’s a guy who I can see being a top-10 fighter in a few years’ time, and is one of the top 2 DraftKings targets along with the previously mentioned Ankalaev on the card.

Danny Henry (11-2) is 29 and he’s 1-0 in the UFC. The Scot won a decision over Daniel Teymur in his UFC debut and has overall won his last four fights. He is an excellent prospect himself and I’m surprised the UFC matched up two young fighters with promise in this one. Henry is as tough as they come, and he often out lasts his opponents through sheer will, but this isn’t a good recipe long term in the UFC.

I like Henry but I like Dawodu a lot more. Dawodu will abuse Henry for a round or two, and will eventually ending up finishing him via TKO late in the 1st or in the 2nd round. He’s got a style that can rack up points, and with Henry being able to take a beating, this will prolong the fight and allow Dawodu to rack up a serious amount of DK points. Dawodu wins this fight via TKO.

PICK: Dawodu, TKO, 1st

Cash Game:   Dawodu (9.5/10): Very similar to my Cash analysis of Ankalaev.

GPP: Dawodu (9/10): High ceiling versus a guy who can take a beating! I like it!

Snapshot:

Danny Roberts (14-3) is 30 and he’s 3-2 in the UFC. He’s almost a 2:1 favorite in this one, and he’s got an $8,500 DraftKings salary. The Brit has had a few nice finishes in the UFC but he has also been knocked out a couple times, including a brutal KO loss to Nordine Taleb in his last fight. He’s also been KO’ed by heavy handed Mike Perry, so he has a propensity for his chin to not hold up in exchanges with pig strikers, and Enkamp surely isn’t one of those. He’s a fun fighter to watch and has the ability to finish opponents but his chin is a massive concern moving forward. Roberts will have the wrestling advantage, but my gut tells me that he’ll look to mix it up on the feet with Enkamp, which may not be the best decision he’s ever made. I’m always concerned about backing a fighter who doesn’t constantly train with one of the top teams in the game, as their Fight IQ tends to suffer and their in-fight gameplanning can often cost them victories that they could have easily won. This is Roberts’ current situation.

Enkamp (7-1) is 26 and he’s 0-1 in the UFC. The Swede carried an undefeated record into his UFC debut but ran into a tough matchup against Taleb, losing a decision. Yes, ironically both fighters last fights were loses to Nordine Taleb. Roberts by head-kick KO, and Enkamp by decision. Enkamp has an awkward karate stance that makes him difficult to corner against the cage and deliver strikes to. He likes to jump in and out of the pocket, putting a premium on staying out of range instead of landing strikes and looking to end the fight. This style is highly concerning when thinking about how someone racks up DK points in bouts. Yes, he does have the ability to end the fight with strikes due to Roberts’ highly questionable chin, but I think this isn’t very likely to occur and a decision victory is probably Enkamp’s only path to victory in this one.

I don’t love this matchup from pretty much every perspective. From a fan’s angle this could be a boring fight that is fought at range and doesn’t have many aggressive exchanges on the feet. Enkamp will most likely stay out of Roberts’ range, and will look to land scoring blows that are well timed, but not blows that will end the fight. Roberts is unpredictable, and he isn’t one I’ll have much confidence backing in this one. I’ll be fading both of these fighters in my lineups, although I may have one or two hail mary lineups that have Enkamp in them due to his lower than average salary and Roberts’ questionable chin. Other than those few hail mary’s, I’d avoid this one and move on to the next.

PICK: Enkamp, Decision, Split

Cash Game:   N/A

GPP: N/A - maybe one or two with Enkamp in them due to his low salary.
 

Snapshot:

The 7th fight of the night is guaranteed to deliver some fireworks! Both of these guys carry some significant power in their hands (and feet when you are talking about Byrd) and provide very little defense to go along with it. This combination typically has the making of an entertaining, quick fight. This matchup also provides us with some serious value to consider here. This fight was the most affected by DraftKings releasing salaries before the betting lines were released, as the fight currently stands as a pick ‘em, but the DK salaries are far from that! Charles Byrd has some significant Rank Value present at an ungodly -7! Byrd ranks 12th on the card from a betting lines perspective at 12th out of 22 fighters, while is DK salary ranks 19th at $7,300! The -7 Rank Value on Byrd will only increase if he becomes a bigger favorite over Phillips before the fight starts. Something to keep an eye on, but regardless, the -7 Rank Value is one of the biggest, if not biggest, values that we’ve ever seen on a card before, and it’s not something we can ignore or pass up.

John Phillips (21-6) is 32 and he’s making his UFC debut. The Welsh fighter is riding a four-fight win streak with all the wins coming by KO and has finally earned his shot in the UFC. He’s a powerful knockout artist who has a ton of experience and he makes for an intriguing addition to the UFC welterweight division. He throws absolute haymakers when he’s locked in the cage, and in the first round his technique actually isn’t too bad, that is before he starts to tire. In his 27 professional MMA fights only 1 fight has gone to the scorecards, and that is an absolutely insane stat for someone with 27 fights under their belt! Besides the one fight that has gone to a decision, NONE of his other fights have even seen the 3rd round, and 18 of his 21 wins have ended via TKO/KO! You know what Phillips will try to do early and often in this fight. The question becomes whether or not Byrd can avoid getting tagged, clinch Phillips against the cage, and eventually get him to the ground where he’ll look to GNP him and lock up a submission eventually.

Charles Byrd (9-4) is 34 and he’s making his official UFC debut after fighting twice on Dana White’s Contender Series before getting offered a contract from the man himself. He has definitely impressed as of late, albeit against a mediocre crop of opposition. Byrd is a well-rounded fighter with heavy leg kicks, powerful punches, and a solid ground game that is rounded out with tight chokes that are highly effective.

Tough fight to call here. If Phillips lands a haymaker early, then I don’t see how Byrd will be able to withstand the barrage of punches that usually follows. Byrd’s striking defense has not impressed me, but I’m assuming this is something that he has focused on intensely once he knew he was fighting “The White Mike Tyson” (seriously, that’s his nickname). If Byrd can avoid the wild hooks that Phillips will definitely throw, then he has a very good chance of getting his hands on the Welshmen and getting the fight to the ground. If Byrd does get the fight to the ground, then I think it is only a matter of time before he softens him up with some heavy ground N pound and eventually locks up a submission. Tough one to call, as anything can happen when you have someone with the power of John Phillips because it only takes one to land to end the fight, but I like the fact that Byrd has more paths to victory than Phillips, and he presents an incredible value for a $7,300 fighter! Don’t be fooled, Byrd will be incredibly popular (50-60% in GPP’s), but he’s almost a must-have in order to roster one of the two big guys that we talked about earlier in the article. I will have heavy exposure to Byrd in all formats, and I will have a few GPP rosters with Phillips mixed in just to leverage the contrarian aspect that is often successful in GPP’s.

PICK: Byrd, Submission, 1st  → LIVE DOG ALERT! (I guess you can consider Byrd a Dog from a DK perspective)

Cash Game:   Byrd (7.5/10): I don’t love the odds of victory here, but you need to capitalize on the value that’s being presented to us here.

GPP: Byrd (8.5/10): I love Byrd’s well-rounded game, and his stupidly low salary for a pick ‘em fighter is impossible to ignore. His high level of ownership is the only thing hampering my ranking on him in this one.

Phillips (7/10): His low ownership will be appealing, but he’s overpriced for the betting odds. Regardless, he’s got a game that scores a lot of points when he wins. Don’t be surprised if he accumulates more than one 10 pt knockdown if he wins this one.

Main Card
 

Snapshot:

The main card pops off with an interesting and well-matched fight in my opinion. The quiet rising MMA star in Europe, Leon Edwards, is priced at $8,800 and is on a 4 fight winning streak in the UFC (3 by decision, 1 by submission). 5 of his last 6 fights have gone to decision with Edwards winning 4 of those 5 fights. I don’t like to target fighters who are content with going to a decision for a victory. Those fighters typically do not score very well on DraftKings, but Edwards does have a very well-rounded game that has a chance to score around 100 points in a decision victory if he gets the takedowns and advances on the ground.

Edwards (14-3) is 26 and he’s 14-2 overall in his professional MMA career, and 6-2 in the UFC. He has striking skills as we’ve seen in the past like in his KO win over Seth Baczynski but also a really good ground game that we’ve seen in his last few outings, such as in his submission win over Albert Tumenov. He is a really well-rounded and underrated fighter and is banging on the door of the welterweight top-10. I just don’t love his DFS game at $8,800. It’s just too much to pay for a guy who doesn’t finish at a very high rate.

Peter Sobotta (17-5-1) is 31 and he’s 4-4 in the UFC. The Polish-German fighter is coming off of back-to-back wins over Nicolas Dalby and Ben Saunders, the latter who he knocked out in brutal fashion. Like Edwards, Sobotta is a very well-rounded fighter and underrated by most MMA fans. He has a really good ground game and since his return to the UFC has shown good striking. His striking improved greatly ever since spending a good amount of time in Thailand at Tiger Muay Thai and Phuket Top Team. He now is dangerous both on his feet and on the ground, a similar story to his opponent.

Both guys have well-rounded games that have improved tremendously since their UFC debuts. Both fighters have very good Fight IQ’s, but Edwards cautious, defensive oriented game can slow the pace of a fight down, often leading to a low scoring DK affair on both sides. There are plenty of paths to victory for both of these guys, and looking at them, I truly think this fight should be closer to a pick ‘em than where it currently stands with Edwards being a -210 favorite. I’ll most likely have a unit bet on Sobotta due to the value he presents here.

This fight could go either way, and I don’t have a ton of confidence in my position here, but I think there’s some value in Sobotta’s price tag of $7,400. He’s got a game that can score points anywhere, and as long as Edwards is willing to engage, we should see exactly where Sobotta stands in the Welterweight division. Edwards has stayed hidden to many during his recent ascent up the UFC’s rankings, but an impressive win over a dangerous Sobotta will notify the 170 pound division that he’s no longer messing around, and should be considered for a Top 10 rankings. No doubt a difficult fight to call, but from a DFS perspective, I like Sobotta’s game better than Edwards, and the fact that he is $1,400 cheaper than Edwards makes him that much more appealing.

PICK: Sobotta, Decision, Split  → LIVE DOG ALERT!

Cash Game:   Sobotta (7/10): Not much confidence in this one, but an opportunity to save some salary to roster the big dogs and possibly pull out a win.

GPP: Sobotta (7.5/10): We need to find Live Dogs, and Sobotta is one of them on this card.

Snapshot:

Tom Duquesnoy is only 24 years old, but he has been fighting professionally since he was 18 years old, so he has plenty of experience in the cage. The UFC tried to sign the French striker when he was 19 years old, but the heady Frenchmen made the smart decision to bypass the offer knew that he needed more experience on the regional scene before competing with the best in the world. It’s interesting to think about where Duquesnoy would be in his MMA career if he had taken the UFC’s initial offer. Would he even still be in the organization? Maybe he’d be holding a belt? Who knows, but I’m always a proponent of young fighters taking their time with their local/regional show careers, and making sure that have fought tough regional competition and that they are 100% ready to compete with the best in the world. Kudos to Duq in making that decision at a point in his life where it would have been very easy to let his ego get the best of him, and make the HUGE leap up to the UFC’s level of competition. It could have also been an easy decision for him due to the fact that he’d never be fighting in his home country while on the regional level because France still has their head in the sand when it comes to the sport of MMA, as it still is not regulated.

Duquesnoy (15-2-1) is 24 and he’s 1-1 in the UFC. The Frenchman showed in his UFC debut why he’s such a highly-rated prospect with a vicious knockout win over Patrick Williams, knockout power he displayed time and time again on the regional circuit.  Duq is 1-1 in the UFC with his sole loss coming to rising stud Cody Stamann back in October of last year. It was a split decision loss, and when going back and watching the fight, I would have actually scored it for Duquesnoy over Stamman, but who am I? Stamann did expose Duquesnoy to some of his weaknesses though, and this is a good thing, as it often takes successful young fighters like Duquesnoy a humbling moment in order to recognize that they aren’t as good as they think they are. Although Duquesnoy should have been awarded the decision victory over Stamann, it did show him that he needs to improve his takedown defense and he needs to improve his overall strength and power if possible. He got ragdolled many times in his fight versus Stamann, and Patrick Williams actually showed a large strength advantage over Duq as well. You’d like to see him stronger when in the clinch and be able to defend the Judo throws, but you do not want his efforts to improve his strength and power negatively affect his flexibility and superior technique that lies within his striking game.  

Terrion Ware (17-7) is 31 and he’s 0-2 in the UFC. The American put on good fights against Stamann and Sean O’Malley but lost decision in each fight. He’s shown that he has a very good chin and is as tough as a $2 steak. His striking is pretty basic, and isn’t based on many complex combinations being thrown. I haven’t seen much of his ground game, but from what I’ve heard, it isn’t anything to write home about, although the ground may not be a place where this fight goes so it may be a moot point.

Ware is a pretty big underdog at +295 as of Friday morning, and this is pretty accurate in my opinion. He opened as a +250 dog, dropped quickly to +215, and has gradually ascended to where he is now - a 3:1 dog. He’s got the 2nd lowest price tag on the card at $6,900 (Henry is at $6,800), and is a pretty attractive Punt play in Cash lineups, as he’ll save you a big amount of cap space and allow you to roster one (or maybe two) of the DFS studs on the card. I’ll have heavy exposure to Duquesnoy in all formats, so long as my cap allows it. What it’s going to come down to is how do you rank the 3 studs (Ankalaev, Dawodu, and Duquesnoy), and if you can fit two in your LU, which two do you want them to be? It’s a great problem to have, and it will take a Punt Play or two in your lineup in order to make it happen. I like Duquesnoy becoming the 1st person to TKO/KO Ware and take this one before it hits the 3rd round. For what it’s worth, I also have Duquesnoy rated as the highest DraftKings fighter on the card (this is a 12-factor based algorithm that I created using stats, previous wins/losses, tendency to win via stoppage, the pace and striking volume that they bring to the cage, and a few other subjective factors).

PICK: Duquesnoy, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: Duquesnoy (9/10): Love his striking game! He’s with a great camp in Jackson-Wink, so his Fight IQ will be there, and he shouldn’t have a problem adding another mark under the “W” column.

Ware (6/10): → PUNT PLAY ALERT! Yes, he will most likely get destroyed, but he is tough as nails, has never been stopped from strikes, is super cheap at $6,900 (allowing us to roster the 3 studs), can stop foes using strikes, who knows…..maybe he lands one perfectly on the chin. Otherwise, his toughness should allow him to score 20-40 DK points, and to do this in our Cash LU for a cheap price is exactly what we are looking for in a PUNT play.

GPP: Duquesnoy (8.5/10): He will be highly owned. Depends on how you rank the top 3 from a GPP perspective.

Snapshot:

The co-main event of Jimi Manuwa vs. Jan Blachowicz on paper looks to be an incredible, vicious, stand-up war that will end with someone sleeping in the middle of the cage, but when you go back and look at tape of their first fight back in April of 2015 you’ll quickly realize that these two fighters were so cautious about the other’s power in their hands, that the fight turned into a clinch battle against the cage with knee to the gut upon knee to the gut upon knee to the gut being used as the primary offensive striking weapon for both fighters. He really turned into a very boring heavyweight fight to watch with few DK points being generated by either fighter.

I won’t go into too much detail about either fighter’s game here, as this really isn’t a fight that I want to target in either format. This could easily turn into a similar battle that took place 3 years ago, and that would be an awful scenario for our lineups. Blachowicz may not be a bad punt play, as he’s got the power to end the fight in one punch, he’s spent 15 minutes in the cage with Manuwa before, so he’s familiar with his game, and Manuwa is coming off a pretty vicious KO loss to Volkan Oezdemir, and at 38 years old, who knows what kind of lasting effect that KO may have on Manuwa - both physically and mentally.

I’ll be fading this one for the most part, but I may have a GPP lineup or two with Blachowicz in it, as he’s got a pretty solid striking game, and who knows where Manuwa’s chin currently stands after his most recent KO loss last year. Not a bad Punt play.

PICK: Manuwa, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:   Blachowicz (6.5/10): PUNT PLAY → don’t love this, but if you’re desperate, give him a shot.

GPP: Blachowicz (7/10): Heavy-handed striker facing a guy he’s seen before, and who’s coming off a knockout loss last year. Who know how his 38 year old chin has recovered.

Manuwa (7/10): His $9k salary makes it difficult to put him in any lineup, especially if you’ve seen footage of their previous fight from 2015 or not.

The main event is a very tough fight to handicap. Werdum is still one of the best heavyweight MMA fighters in the world, but he’s 40 years old and his age will eventually catch up with him, and I don’t want to be the guy left holding the bag (aka having him in my LU’s) once that decline becomes obvious.

Fabricio Werdum (23-7-1) is 40 and he’s 11-4 in the UFC. The Brazilian is the former UFC heavyweight champion having been the only fighter to ever submit Cain Velasquez. Werdum lost his belt on his first title defense to Stipe Miocic but has overall rebounded nicely with a 3-1 record since, including back-to-back wins over Marcin Tybura and Walt Harris in his last two fights. Werdum is one of the most well-rounded heavyweights in the world with elite striking and grappling skills. At one point in time he was solely a submission fighter, but over the years he has greatly improved his striking under the tutelage of Rafael Cordeiro of Kings MMA in LA; one of the best MMA coaches in the game right now. Werdum has turned into a technically sound striker who is very dangerous on the feet, and once the fight goes to the ground, then you’re dealing with one of the best heavyweight submission grapplers….ever, and maybe one of the best grapplers, regardless of weight, to ever fight in the UFC. Will Volkov’s size advantage, striking skills, and the fact that he’s 11 years younger than Werdum be too much for the Brazilian to overcome and continue his hike up the mountain towards the HW belt?

Volkov (29-6) is 29 and he’s 3-1 in the UFC. The Russian is the former Bellator heavyweight champion and in his last fight brutally finished Stefan Struve. Volkov is one of the tallest and rangiest heavyweights in the UFC and has terrific knockout power. With five wins in a row, he has a lot of momentum right now. However, I just feel like Werdum is a better overall fighter. I think Werdum has a huge edge in the grappling department and I expect him to try and get this fight to the ground. I don’t think you can totally write off Volkov getting a surprise upset KO, but more times than not Werdum wins this fight. Every HW contest has a possibility of ending unexpectedly with both fighters having a chance at landing that fight-ending shot that causes everyone watching to pick up their jaws off the ground, and this fight is no different.

From a DFS perspective it is a very difficult fight to have a lot of confidence in, regardless of side you’re on, but it is also a fight that you should be targeting from a GPP perspective, as it’s a 5 rounder in the heavyweight division that has the possibility of taking place on the feet and on the mat. I’ll have some exposure to both of these guys in GPP’s, but I’ll most likely avoid from a Cash lineup due to the unpredictability of these type of heavyweight clashes, and in our Cash LU’s we like to see more predictability and confidence in the fighters that we are rostering. I’m going to go out on a limb here and back Volkov in a semi-upset. He’s young, talented, big, has legit striking skills, gives us some salary relief with his $7,600 price tag. He’ll need to keep this fight standing, but I think he can use his length to strike from the outside and keep Werdum from getting ahold of him and tripping him to the ground, as Werdum’s overall wrestling skills aren’t great. He’s just smarter and more clever than his opponents when he has them in a clinch. He finds ways to get his opponents to the ground by using his knowledge and experience and without using pure wrestling. Call it a passing of the torch or whatever you want to, but I see this as the perfect time for the next generation of UFC heavyweights to start taking the baton and running with it.

PICK: Volkov, TKO, 3rd  → LIVE DOG ALERT!

Cash Game:   N/A - Not enough confidence in this one.

GPP: Volkov (7.5/10): I’m not in love with this play, but his upside is worth taking a shot at him.

Werdum (7/10): I’ll have some exposure to Werdum as well, simply based on his skills and body of work throughout his career.

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

GPP 1 - Studs & Scrubs

GPP 2