MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night 219 - Cyborg vs Holm

UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm

2017 ends with a bang, as the UFC 219 comes to us with a solid card of 10 fights. This is a difficult one to handicap from a DK perspective as there are no mid-tier fighters to focus on, so we’ll have to take some risks with some lower priced underdogs. I still like our options, and I think we have some solid dog plays in Esparza, Magny, and Smolka, so feel free to mix those fighters in with some of your favorites as well.

Without further ado, let’s breakdown each fight with a DraftKings angle! Let’s make it rain!

Undercard

Snapshot:

The first fight of the evening pits a crafty vet in Tim Elliott versus a heavily hyped young prospect making his UFC debut in Mark De La Rosa, who is also the husband of TUF 26 competitor and current UFC fighter, Montana De La Rosa. Elliott is a solid favorite at -224 and carries a salary of a respectable $9,000, while the debuting undefeated De La Rosa comes in as a +180 dog with a $7,200 salary.

Elliott has been around the game a while, and he’s been solid, but he isn’t at the elite level, although he did give Demetrious Johnson a serious battle a year ago, but fell short in a unanimous decision loss. He’s a solid wrestler who forces a series pace in his fights, but he doesn’t have KO power that would scare De La Rosa. Elliott infamously scored 176 DK points against Louis Smolka when he had 12 takedowns and 14 advances on the ground! He fell flat in his next bout against Ben Nguyen when he was submitted in a mere 49 seconds. This is Elliott’s weakness - his defensive submission game, and this is where De La Rosa should look to capitalize.

De La Rosa is a very solid young prospect who has made a name for himself on the regional circuit. He was scheduled to be a participant in the next TUF series, but he was able to avoid the TUF house and position himself for a short notice fight against a solid vet in Tim Elliott.

From a DK perspective, I do think this is a fight that you should target. Elliott has a style that is made to score highly within the DraftKings scoring framework. He is aggressive with his wrestling and takedown attempts, and once he gets you to the ground, he looks to pass and advance his position, and all of this is great news from a DK perspective. The real question becomes can De La Rosa keep his distance, avoid Elliott’s wrestling game, and possibly catch Elliott on his way in. If the UFC rookie can land strikes and possibly put Elliott to the mat, then there are good odds that he could lock up a quick submission, as this is Elliott’s biggest hole in his game. This is a BIG “if” though, and I don’t think that De La Rosa will be able to catch him heavy enough to put him on his back, as he’ll be backpedaling and circling often to try and avoid Elliott’s wrestling game.

I will have exposure to both of these guys in GPP, but I am putting a pretty heavy lean on Elliott here, as his fighting style aligns so nicely with the DK scoring system. I think others will see this as well, and he will have a pretty high ownership percentage, but with an upside of 135+ points or so, it’s one we can’t miss on. I’ll have some exposure to De La Rosa as well, as he is a talented up and comer, but he’ll eventually start to fade due to Elliott’s pace and the bright lights of the UFC.

 PICK:                                                 Elliott, Decision, Unanimous                                              

Cash Game:                                       Elliott (8/10): Not as confident as I’d like to be for a win here, but his upside is so nice that it is hard to ignore.

GPP:                                                   Elliott (9/10): His style is made for conquering the DK scoring system, but he does have lapses in judgement sometimes, which should scare you somewhat.

                                                            De La Rosa (7/10): This is a solid contrarian play here, as not many people know about him, but he has talent, and could pull an upset here, and if he does, it would position you and your GPP LU very well amongst the other entrants who most likely won’t have any piece of the UFC rookie.

Snapshot:

Fight 2 of the night is an interesting matchup. UFC vet, Louis Smolka, who is 5-4 in the UFC, has publicly stated that he has addressed his drinking issues, and is no longer drinking during his training camps. Smolka is a very aggressive fighter who loves to be involved in scrambles, and to use this to his advantage, as he loves wild and aggressive fights.

Nicolau hasn’t fought since July of 2016 due to a PED violation, and this could be a factor in this fight. Nicolau is a counter striker who has a very conservative, and buttoned-up game. His style can make for a very boring fight, and boring fights are very bad for DK scoring. His price tag of $8,900 seems high to me, especially when taking in to consideration that he hasn’t fought in a year and a half. Ring rust could be an issue, but he has a very tight game that doesn’t have many holes, and if he plays his typical game of cat and mouse, and Smolka can’t lure him into a grappling-scramble-fest, then I could see Nicolau winning a decision victory that doesn’t come close to paying off his salary.

This fight card has no mid-tier fighters, and this is pushing us to take some aggressive stands on some dogs who have a chance to win. Smolka is one of those Live Dogs in my opinion, and if he truly has put the bottle down, then we might see the best Louis Smolka that we’ve ever seen. He has lost 3 in a row, and another loss would surely mean an exit from the organization, so his backs against the wall, and I think this is a good thing. Smolka’s style plays in nicely to the DK scoring system, but Nicolau’s really doesn’t so we’ll see who will be able to control the pace of the fight, and I think that person will ultimately be the victor.

I like Smolka as a Live Dog here, as there aren’t many that I have very much confidence in. His style is high-paced, and aggressive, and if he can lure Nicolau into a wild fight, then I could see him winning a decision, and easily paying off his $7,300 salary. He’s worth the risk, but don’t be surprised if he loses and is shown the exit, as Nicolau has a very sound MMA game that can lull you to sleep.

 PICK:                                                 Smolka, Decision, Split                               

Cash Game:                                       Smolka (6.5/10): You’ll need some dogs in your Cash LU as well. Not a great play, but a play nonetheless.

GPP:                                                   Smolka (7/10): I like his style, and his one of the few Dogs that I actually like on this card.

Snapshot:

Marvin Vettori brings a 2-1 UFC record into this middleweight bout against Omari Akhmedov who has a 5-3 record in the UFC. Vettori is a -226 favorite with the 4th best Inside the Distance prop on the card at +145, and he also sports an $8,600 DK salary. Akhmedov is a +181 dog with a $7,600, and some awful cardio. No seriously, he has some comically bad cardio, and it often costs him dearly in his fights.

Vettori is a hard-charging Italian who no trains at Kings MMA in Southern California, and has been aggressively working on his wrestling game, hoping to match it up with his highly effective striking style. Akhmedov’s only chance at victory here is to get Vettori to the ground, and hopefully lock up a sub, or pound out a GNP win, but I don’t foresee either of these happening, as he has a very difficult time keeping his opponents on the mat, as his top game is not very heavy.

Vettori is a solid prospect, but he is still only 24 years old and is working on filling the gaps in his game through solid coaching in America, and that’s exactly what he is getting at King’s MMA. There are still a lot of unknowns surrounding Vettori’s game, and if there are a few things I try to shy away from when it comes to to fighters on my roster, it’s inconsistency, and question marks surrounding a fighters skills, Fight IQ, and strategy. The Italian is still an unknown, and I don’t have a ton of confidence in him scoring highly, but who knows…..this is MMA after all. I do think he wins this one, but it could be by boring decision which won’t score will in our LU’s. He is a fighter in the making, but if you do decide to roster him, please proceed with caution.

What will keep me interested in Vettori is his reasonable salary of $8,600 on a card with NO MID-TIER FIGHTERS (he’s as close as we get I guess), and his low ownership. Since this card only has 10 fights on it, ownership levels will be even more important in order to differentiate yourself from the rest of the players in the large GPP’s. Being contrarian is more important on smaller fight cards, and Vettori may be a good spot to differentiate your roster for a reasonable price. I’ll have exposure to Vettori in both formats, but his ceiling is lower than I’d like to see on my GPP LU’s, but his low ownership level should make up for that.

PICK:                                                  Vettori, Sub, 2nd                  

Cash Game:                                       Vettori (7.5/10): I like his chances of victory, and his salary is reasonable.

GPP:                                                   Vettori (8/10): I have him ranked a little higher than I would for a 12 fight card due to his low ownership, and how important that is on a small 10 fight card.

Snapshot:

This 145 pound battle should be an entertaining battle between two very exciting fighters. Myles Jury has returned to Alliance MMA in San Diego after taking a 2 year hiatus from the gym. This will also be is 2nd fight at 145 after dropping down from lightweight after 2 consecutive losses. Jury is a solid striker with a very good wrestling and submission game. He comes into this battle as a -240 favorite with an $8,800 DK salary.

Glenn recently moved camps from Roufusport in Milwaukee to Team Alpha Male in Sacramento. Team Alpha Male has a murderers row of lighter weight fighters on their roster, and Glenn feels that he has been able to more effectively train and keep his body healthy by training with fighters more his size. This confidence could play into his performance in the cage Saturday night, so keep that in mind.

Glenn throws at a very high volume, averaging 5.6 Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM) in his first 3 UFC fights, but he also absorbs a shitload of strikes in the process. He absorbs 4.82 Strikes per Minute, which is the worst on the card, so he is willing to take a punch or two in order to land his punches and kicks.

Jury has a pretty big advantage when it comes to speed and footwork in the striking department, but he also is a much better wrestler and grappler than Glenn, and I think this is where Jury will try to separate himself from his competition. Jury has a very solid all-around MMA game, and he looked great in his 145 pound debut. I think he’ll piece up Glenn on the feet, and will use that effective striking to takedown Glenn and work his superior grappling. This type of game (striking combined with takedowns and grappling) plays very well with the DK scoring system, so Jury’s upside is pretty high. The matchup in itself will be entertaining as hell, and will display a high volume of strikes from both fighters combined with a legit ground game from Jury.

My numbers have Jury as a top 5 DK fighter on the card, but Glenn will not be a pushover. I could see Glenn landing some heavy shots, and working for a clinch where he’ll use his elbows and knees to punish Jury. Jury will want to keep the distance, strike from the outside, and look for the takedown when the timing is right. I like Jury here, and I will have him in quite a few of my lineups, but on a card with no mid-tier fighters, and needing to find some “Live Dogs”, I think that Glenn should be considered as well. I will have a few GPP LU’s with Glenn sprinkled in as well.

PICK:                                                  Jury, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:                                       Possibly a little bit of Glenn, but I think this fight is closer than what the line shows.

GPP:                                                   Jury (8.5/10): I like his well-rounded game, as it will often score very well in DK. Tough opponent, so don’t rule out Glenn, but I think Jury’s skillset will carry him to victory.

                                                            Glenn (6.5/10): We need to find some dogs on this card with some upside, and I think Glenn fits that nicely, although it will be a touch mountain to climb, as I think Jury is back with a camp that will bring the best out in him.

Snapshot:

Don’t blink when the bell rings to start this fight. Rountree has incredibly heavy hands, and I think he’ll make short work of MO (I’m not writing that last name every time, sorry). Michal is a 22 year old Pole who is making his UFC debut, and he’s got a big task ahead of him in this fight with the incredibly athletic Khalil Rountree.

Rountree is still evolving as a MMA fighter, and his ground game is pretty much non-existent, but when he lands his heavy left hand, people go to sleep! Rountree’s striking is fun to watch, but he does not string together many combinations, which will eventually catch up with him, but when he does land his single southpaw punches, you best not blink. The odds that this fight doesn’t go the distance is -600! The next closest line in that arena on the card is -195!

The tough part about targeting Rountree is that he is basically a 1st round finish or bust, and with a salary of $9,400, it makes it a risky play, as we know his ceiling is lower than someone who has a more well-rounded game, and can rack up DK points while grappling. A 1st round KO will net him somewhere in the range of 95 - 110 points, which isn’t bad, and he may be a nice pivot off of Cyborg, but we know he won’t be racking up 120+ points, so proceed with caution if you want to roster him.

If you like to gamble, then I would consider Michal, as he’ll be very low owned, and if he does win, will be on winning GPP rosters. I don’t think he wins, but he’s worth a gamble if you like contrarian lineups.

PICK:                                                  Rountree, KO, 1st

Cash Game:                                       Rountree (9/10): I like him in my Cash LU’s, as I think he is very likely to win and get a solid score, but his ceiling is lower than we’d like to see when considering his salary.

GPP:                                                   Rountree (7.5/10): I think he’ll be highly owned, and is a one dimensional fighter, so his ceiling is lower than a fighter who is more well-rounded. If he doesn’t get a 1st round finish, then there is no way he comes close to earning his salary.       

Main Card

Snapshot:

I really like this matchup, and it’s a tough one to handicap. Condit hasn’t fought since August of 2016, and he’s coming out of retirement, so who knows what we are going to get with him. It’s a risk. Condit is a very good striker, and has great kicks, knees, and elbows - especially in the clinch. His KO power isn’t great, but he has a high Fight IQ, and he comes from one of the best MMA camps in the country in Jackson-Wink MMA.

Magny is an athletic, well-rounded fighter who has a tremendous amount of heart. I would suspect that Magny would try and get this one to the ground, as he has solid wrestling, and Condit has atrocious takedown defense. If Magny comes in with a game plan, then he should take the first opportunity to get this fight to the ground, and put Condit on his back.

From a DraftKings perspective there are a lot of question marks here. What type of Condit will we get? Is he 100% focused on this fight, or is he distracted with other things in his life since his retirement? What type of game plan will Magny deploy? Will he attempt to stand and strike with Condit, or will he look for the takedown?

The fact that we need to target 2-3 underdogs on this card, and there are no mid-tier fighters, I think Magny is a very good fighter to target in all formats. I think his ceiling is a little lower than we’d like to see for our GPP lineups, but at this point we just need to find a few Live Dogs that have a legit chance at winning, and I think Magny is one of the best dogs to Target on this card. Magny’s $7,700 price tag is worth the risk. I’m not expecting a huge DK point output from him, and really all I’m looking for is a win here, and I think that’s doable.

PICK:                                                  Magny, Decision, Split        

Cash Game:                                       Magny (7/10): Nice dog play here, and we’ll need to have a couple Live Dogs even in our Cash LU’s.

GPP:                                                   Magny (8/10): He’s one of the best Live Dogs on the card, although his ceiling is somewhat low for GPP LU creation.

Snapshot:

Carla Esparza was once the 115 pound UFC champ, but since those days she has just been mediocre. She has a pretty on-dimensional game that focuses on wrestling. She hasn’t evolved her striking game like you would have hoped after this many years in the UFC and getting the proper training. She is a great wrestler, and this will most likely be her only angle to victory in this fight.

Calvillo has been very impressive so far in the UFC, but she as well doesn’t have a striking game that will overwhelm anyone. She has a pretty high price tag of $9,200, so you’ll have to pay up to roster her, and I just don’t see the upside that she brings to the table to payoff that lofty salary. Her Inside the Distance prop is pretty good at +207, but Esparza has enough experience competing at this level to weather anything that Calvillo throws at her.

This isn’t a fight that I love on paper or for DFS, but with this card having no mid-tier fighters on it, we need to be very creative when it comes to the underdogs that we roster. We are just looking for Dog wins, and we shouldn’t be too concerned about their DK point upside. With that being said, if there is one fighter that I’ll be targeting in this one, it is Esparza and not Calvillo. Why? Very simple - her salary. I don’t think Esparza wins this fight, and even if she does, I don’t think she’ll score very high, but when you look at the underdogs on this card, and determine who will give us the best chance of winning, Esparza is near the top. It’s definitely a gamble, and she most likely won’t win, but it’s necessary to take some educated gambles on some of the Livlier Dogs on this card, and I think Esparza at least gives us a fighting chance for a dog victory here.

PICK:                                                  Calvillo, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:                                       N/A

GPP:                                                   Esparza (7/10): She is one of the 3 or 4 dogs that I’ll be focusing on for this card. A broring, wrestle-heavy victory would do just fine for our GPP LU’s.

Snapshot:

12-1 Marc Diakiese is 24 years old and is a -189 favorite as he takes on Dan Hooker who is 27 years old and holds a 3-1 record in the UFC and brings a +157 line into the fight. Hooker lands with volume, but his defensive striking is pretty gross, as he absorbs 4.73 Strikes per Minute during his previous UFC fights. Diakese is very athletic, and is fun to watch. He has a lot of hype behind him, and I think that hype-train will continue chugging along.

I think that Diakese will look to strike with Hooker, but if he starts to eat some shots, then I think he’ll look to take this one to the ground, as Hooker doesn’t have much when it comes to takedown defense. Diakese’s price tag of $8,700 is definitely reasonable, and I think it makes him someone to target. Most likely he’ll win by decision, but I could see him finishing this fight via TKO if he’s able to connect with a few heavy shots, which isn’t out of the question when you consider Hooker’s porous defensive skills.

I’ll surely have Diakese in a few of my GPP LU’s, and I also like him in Cash, as I think his athleticism, speed, power, and overall ability will allow him to outclass Hooker. The one thing that concerns me is that Hooker hasn’t been KO’ed in 9 years, and it may be tough for Diakese to stop him, but even if Diakese wins by decision, his game is well-rounded enough where he may be able to rack up 100+ points in a decision win, and that would easily pay for his $8,700 price tag. I like Diakese in all formats, and I don’t think he’ll be very highly owned, so he definitely should be targeted.

PICK:                                                  Diakese, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:                                       Diakese (8.5/10): A reasonable price tag for a guy who I think will dominate.

GPP:                                                   Diakese (8.5/10): I like him just as much in GPP formats, as I could see him ending this one quickly, or winning a decision that will earn him significant DK points.                   

Snapshot:

Khabib is a stud, and his wrestling and ground and pound are some of the best in the UFC. There isn’t a fighter out there at 155 that can stop his takedowns. His typical performance is based around heavy wrestling, ground advances, and mixing in some serious ground N pound, and this all plays very well when it comes to the DraftKings scoring system.

Yes, Barboza is incredibly talented on the feet, and brings a ton of experience into this fight. I could see Barboza landing a flying knee and putting Khabib to sleep, but Khabib comes from a very good camp (AKA), and they will have prepared him for Barboza’s striking skills. Barboza isn’t a bad dog to target, as his salary is only $7,100, and if he wins, he’ll definitely be on winning GPP lineups. I feel comfortable rostering Barboza in a few GPP lineups, but for the most part, I’ll be backing Khabib in all formats, but I’ll mix in some Barboza here and there.

Khabib is a physical specimen, and has a great game for DK scoring! His salary of $9,100 is more than reasonable, as I think he’ll easily payoff this salary once he gets some takedowns, advances, and some heavy GNP to eventually TKO Barboza in the 2nd or 3rd round. Khabib will be very highly owned, and Barboza will also have some solid ownership due to his crazy good striking, but Khabib will keep this fight in his world with some serious wrestling and GNP.

PICK:                                                  Khabib, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game:                                       Khabib (9/10): I like his chances of victory here, and I think he scores very well. His price tag isn’t bad either.

GPP:                                                   Khabib (10/10): He has one of the best all-around games when it comes to potential scoring in DraftKings. He will be highly owned though.      

                                                            Barboza (7/10): Not a bad dog play here, because if he wins, it will be inside the distance by KO.

Snapshot:

On to the main event of the evening, as Cris Cyborg is a heavy favorite as she takes on Holly Holm in this 5 round battle. Cyborg is a beast, and I don’t see a way where Holm can win this one. Cyborg is a -365 favorite, but has a pretty reasonable $9,300 DK price tag. I think Cyborg will end this one in the 1st round, and will be close to paying off her salary, but she will be very highly owned.

Holm’s only chance at victory is landing one of her patented head kicks, and follows up with ground and pound. I think Cyborg will be ready for this and will be able to eat those kicks without much damage. Cyborg on the other hand has many paths to victory, and eventually she’ll win by TKO within the 1st round or two.

Cyborg will be very highly owned, and this will keep me from rostering her much in my GPP lineups. I see value in Cyborg in your Cash lineups, but I don’t see much value in her in your GPP lineups, as much of the rest of the field will be owning her, and her style doesn’t really dictate that she’ll score 120+ points like some of the other lower priced fighters on the card. Roster Cyborg in your Cash LU’s, and avoid her in your GPP’s, that’s my play.

PICK:                                                  Cyborg, TKO, 1st

Cash Game:                                       Cyborg (10/10): Yup. Do it.

GPP:                                                   Cyborg (7/10): Her popularity will keep me away from her, as I think there are better options just below her price tag.                      

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

GPP 1